[Russian_Cowboy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'S')eriously, though, is there a consensus here at PO.com as to when Russian production will peak?

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', 'R')ussian production has already peaked 19 years ago. The second peak is expected within the next two years

[neocone]

Goes to also show the 3000 american dead in Iraq are non significant.

Washington will raise a 10 million man army if necessary by conscription. Personally I am not againts the dilapidated american youth given a little kick in the butt in boot camps... if they think teachers in high school are bad, wait until they get a drill seargent!!!

And yep the old adage is true: If you're not in college by then, you will end up as canon meat.

America doesn't have a $ 1/2 trillion per year army to not use it.

[TonyPrep]

Bloomberg reported two stories today:

Russian March Crude Oil Production Rises 0.1%

Russian oil exports fall 2.5%

The first story talks about a 3.4% rise in production, over the last 12 months, though 0.1% between February and March. The second gives a 2.5% fall in exports due to rising internal use.

All this implies that domestic demand rose over 3.5% (or more) in one month (taking IEA FSU demand figures). Is this likely, or could the Russians be lying about production?

[Bas]

Good question. A 3.5% rise in oil use over 1 month does seem like a huge fluctuation for such a short period of time so there may indeed be something out of order here.

edit: I think it's a mistake on Bloomberg's part; they probably should have said that 2.5% decline was year-on-year; I recall having heard that before, trying to find a source.

[dukey]

the media is just full of disinformation
or fluff designed to cheer up the stock market
type oil prices into the news and you'll get articles within minutes of each other saying totally the opposite of each other

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')All this implies that domestic demand rose over 3.5% (or more) in one month (taking IEA FSU demand figures). Is this likely, or could the Russians be lying about production?

[Newsseeker]

Increasing consumption in the oil exporting countries is going to eat into the oil going out. It is common sense that these nations will serve their own people first but the drawback is hastening the peak in production and reducing the overall availability of oil.

[Zardoz]

Oil and Gas Reserves Shrinking

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he country's oil reserves shrank by 7.3 billion barrels from 1994 to 2005 as the country failed to replace dwindling West Siberian reserves with new discoveries in East Siberia and other regions, an official said Friday.

"The proportion of reserves that can be extracted has fallen from 42 percent at the start of the 1990s to 27 percent," Sergei Fyodorov, head of subsoil policy at the Natural Resources Ministry, told a conference.

Russia's energy reserves are classified information, but BP's statistical review of world energy has put them at 74.4 billion barrels.

"At the current rate of growth in oil production, there won't be enough reserves to keep up," Fyodorov said.

Gas reserves were down by 2.4 trillion cubic meters over the same period, he said. BP figures put Russia's natural gas reserves at 47.8 trillion cubic meters in 2005.

[Free]

Bloody hell Zardoz, there really should be a fu**ing award for the best avatar on the board...

On topic: Yeah sure, but what about the abiotic oil theory?

[DesertBear2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'I') believe the concept is referred to by most people as "depletion".

[cube]

As I've stated before on this forum, Russia produces about twice as much oil as Iran but has only half the reserves.

This is the equivalent of a weightlifter taking steroids so he can lift more then some other guy who's twice his size. The performance can be very impressive....while it lasts and this is Russia's biggest problem. In the oil industry I assume this is accomplished by using "super straws", oil wells with massive amounts of water and gas injection to keep pressure up.

This is one of the reasons why I always laugh whenever anyone suggests that Russia will become a 21st century energy superpower. Make no mistake, Russia is and will continue to be a very important player in the energy markets. Compared to the hopeless rulers of the Middle East, the Russians are much more clever in how they manage their energy resources to gain geopolitical advantages that's for sure. But they are not the 800 pound gorilla.

If I was the supreme overlord of Russia I'd reduce oil production by 1 mbpd...to keep oil prices over-inflated. This will encourage the rest of the world to transition to natural gas (a cheaper alternative). Once the world creates an entire infrastructure dependent on natural gas, I'd team up with Iran to make a NG OPEC and spend the next 40 years blackmailing the rest of the world.

and you thought Vladimir Putin plays hard ball

my 2 cents

[whereagles]

duh.. reducing 1 mbd means a trillion less for the big companies. You'd be dead in no-time

[MrMambo]

Russia is said to be close to a second and final peak. To me it seems as they have been slowly and steadily incresing production for a good many years? How long can this be continued? Does anyone have updated graphs on Russian oil production?

[Newsseeker]

I think when Russia goes down it will go off a cliff. With such scanty reserves, now revealed, it is clear that the Day of Demise draws near.

[Leanan]

Worry warts! Calm down, they have a plan:

Russia eyes industrial development of moon

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')It is time to think about industrial development of the moon. We are sometimes criticized for making such suggestions too early," Sevastianov was quoted as saying in an interview released on Wednesday.

But it is time to do this given the limits to natural reserves on Earth and the pace of civilization's progress. Nor can we dismiss the idea of outsourcing harmful industries into space."

[ucosty]

Is this a preferential poll? Then I vote "For decades" because that would be nice.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ormer Soviet Union (FSU)
Russia – January actual, February provisional: February Russian production came in 200 kb/d
above the level forecast in last month’s report. Production (including condensate) reached 9.9 mb/d in
February, some 60 kb/d above December levels and January and February production stood a clear
400 kb/d (4%) above start-year 2006. However, the apparent ‘bounce’ in January/February
production needs to be kept in context:
▪ producers were reported to have restrained 4Q06 production to take advantage of favourable
production tax changes at new year;
▪ the impediment of exceptionally cold weather to 1Q oil production seen in 2006 was absent
(indeed 1Q07 supply might have been higher still had the opposite phenomenon – early tundra
thaw – not constrained oilfield work);
▪ the Sakhalin 1 project provided a step-up for early 2007 production, with the rapid increase of
production towards 225 kb/d since export restrictions were lifted towards the end of 2006.
Hence, inflated early 2007 growth rates may not be sustainable going forward. We also note that
downward adjustments made last month to Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz February/March supply on
news of impending power supply maintenance were not translated into materially lower supply, at
least in February. We have kept supply from these two producers suppressed in March, but may
ultimately revise these higher.

[ukrneftegas]

My name is Igor! I am from Ukraine. I am a representative of a Russian Oil Company proposing the following oil products:



1. Virgin Petrol. Heavy oil 0,742
2 Once-run Petrol 0,714
3 Virgin Petrol. Light Oil 0,656
4 Gas Condensate (Tyumen) 0,775
5 Diesel-fuel oil (Makhachkala) 0,820
6 Diesel-fuel oil (Krasnodar) 0,840
7 Petrol AI-92 (Volgograd) 0,748
8 Stove Oil 1,02-1,04
9 Gas Condensate (Makhachkala) 0,820
10 Diesel-fuel oil (Makhachkala) 0,830
11 Petrol AI-76 (Makhachkala) 0,735
12 Petrol AI-76 (Samara) 0,750
13 Petrol AI-76 (Samara) 0,800
14 Diesel-fuel oil (Astrakhan)
15 Petrol AI-92 (Astrakhan)
16 Petrol AI-80 (Astrakhan)
17 Idustrial Petrol UR-01-М 0,718
18 Solution of wet products of pyrolysis – С9 0,7-0,9
19 Solution of wet products of pyrolysis – С5+С9 0,7-0,9
20 Vinyl Acetate
21 Technical Acetone
22 Propane Butane
23 Crude Oil

here Heavy Oil (See English version)

I have a question. What form of an International contract do I need for a long term oil products supply???

Any help will be appreciated!

[basil_hayden]

You send us petroleum.

We send you little pieces of paper with Dead Presidents on them.

K?