by BlisteredWhippet » Sun 11 Mar 2007, 14:30:24
Water and food is what its all about.
savethehumans has a salient point though, about dependency. There is nothing in the go-it-alone for those of us who absolutely require the just-in-time services of modern life. Those people, I expect, wll provide a backbone for the consolidation of any centralized power. "America", as a political entity, in whatever form is what I'm referring to.
Peak Oil is too much of a clusterfuck to navigate through conceptually. But Bird Flu Pandemic is more certain, its effects more predictable, and because of historical models, a more concrete picture of its reality is conceivable. In terms of social/cultural meltdown, I predict bird flu to hit prior to the effects of peak on world economic and political systems.
The shocks of pandemic and aftereffects might just be the type of catalyst required for handling peak. All the mechanizations of government and society required for pulling through bird flu pandemic are applicable to peak circumstances. The Boomer generation, you can be sure, will be ultramotivated as they watch the best and brightest of their cherished children die early, horrible deaths.
So to some degree personal survival will become the "business" of government and the people may no longer tolerate the ineffectualisms of government and the hallucinatory economy.
In most things, climaxing negative effects engender corrective reactionary behaviors. You eat too much cake and you get a stomach ache. In this case, the stomach ache will be heartache as millions of parents bury their children. A yawning gap will open between the generations that will create a new pantheon of martyrs that will galvanize public opinion in a way that will make people shake their heads in disgust at the excessive consumerism of today's era. To them, it will seem shameful and immoral at best. Such behavior will no longer be publicly tolerated. Imagine a federal cap on CEO bonuses lobbied for by CEOs themselves eager to align themselves with the new morality. Health and food industries that peddled sugar-water and other dubious chemicals toward American children in particular will be pilloried.
So whats your chances of surviving Bird Flu? Me, I'm starting a plan on a 6-12 month bug-out. Think about it. Bird flu could easily trigger a worldwide depression, an economic trough that lasts for years, perhaps creating a demand destruction scenario making the transition to peak sort of a nice gradual metamorphosis. A centralized government with a new mandate toward public welfare would be the ideal instrument to steer "Titanic" away from the shoals, at least a few more generations.
Bird flu is easy to fight. Just stay the hell away from other people. You'll need traps and guns in case everyone's cats and dogs become intermediate carriers. Critical aspects will be access to uncontaminated food and water, and shelter. And lastly, I would think a means to communicate with the outside world would be most ideal for psychological reasons. Imagine dialing random phone numbers on your cellphone because everyone you know is dead or disconnected. Solar or hand crank that bastard.