[Aaron]

He was the sole voice correctly predicting $50/barrel oil for the very first time in history.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '8')0.00 oil will bankrupt this entire civilization and cause massive starvation and total anarchy. I dont thinkwe will make it past 2008

[davep]

I don't think $80-$100 oil will do much more than increase demand destruction. It's not exactly a quantum leap from current prices.

However, when oil production does drop by 5-10% (which won't be far off, people) I can see oil going well beyond $100. I don't see price necessarily being the best indicator, as it's too influenced by market sentiment. We'll see major problems when we really start going beyond the current production plateau. I have no idea when this will be though. Two year to five years is my guess.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'I') don't think $80-$100 oil will do much more than increase demand destruction. It's not exactly a quantum leap from current prices.

However, when oil production does drop by 5-10% (which won't be far off, people) I can see oil going well beyond $100. I don't see price necessarily being the best indicator, as it's too influenced by market sentiment. We'll see major problems when we really start going beyond the current production plateau. I have no idea when this will be though. Two year to five years is my guess.

[MacG]

Soon, very soon, this website will become irrelevant. It's been a highlight to meet you all in cyberspace, but just about anytime -three weeks to three years, it will be Game Over for all of us. I'll better spend my time tending the land and the sheep. Might make a couple of more posts, but very soon it will be "bye-bye".

[MonteQuest]

What if it is no gas at any price?

What if gas has to be rationed at $100/barrel for oil?

Demand destruction will only occur in countries who cannot afford to pony up the price.

In the US, price increases have not caused the conservation that it did in the 70's and 80's.

I flat don't see demand destruction outpacing demand at any price.

This isn't just any ol' commodity, this is the base commodity of energy upon which all else depends.

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '8')0.00 oil will bankrupt this entire civilization and cause massive starvation and total anarchy. I dont thinkwe will make it past 2008

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') flat don't see demand destruction outpacing demand at any price.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') flat don't see demand destruction outpacing demand at any price.

[davep]

Fair enough. I thought you were referring to thread contributions, Montequest, not to the general consensus.

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat if it is no gas at any price?

What if gas has to be rationed at $100/barrel for oil?

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '8')0.00 oil will bankrupt this entire civilization and cause massive starvation and total anarchy. I dont thinkwe will make it past 2008

[TreebeardsUncle]

Look. Oil was up to $78/barrel and that was no big deal here in the states. Demand is still growing at this level. Gas is over $3/gallon in Ca and a great many people are making no changes. Gas could more than double in price and most people would not change their ways much. They would just have more credit card debt.
Now, $300/barrel oil would lead to gas being around $12/gallon in California. That would change the economic equation involved in commuting. It would be advantageous financially to live closer to work instead of to drive a long distance to find cheaper housing.
Also suburbanites would be less willing to drive long distances just to get houses with more square footage. Thus houses in the outer suburbs would be relatively less vaulable than those in the inner suburbs. Trucking will take a hit by the time gas gets up to $7/gallon or so. Rural poor commuters and the big 3 will take a hit at a subtantially lower price, by $5/gallon. Governments will also find it excessively expensive to pave the way for developers in that range as well.

G

[oilcanboyd]

Well lets look at demand destruction senarios. since transportation is 70% of the barrel, John Q Public would be the first hit, while science and Tech institutions would get top priority in doing R&D work to over come this problem. Given human instinct we would (politicians) rely in developement of alternative methods to adopt to alternatives. Factories would change over to produce what ever the scientists deemed fit. Mass deployment of the next gadget to save us.

Like Simmons says and others, the numbers data is not accurate enough, but through different models, its suggested someone had better pick up the pace and do something. I believe consumerism and travel will be hit first then the rest of the sectors will fall in decline later. Keep the work force productive as long a possible for humanity reasons- ( provide heating and food etc) but no drag races or Nascar on the weekends any more.

May be its time to model various senarios along decline lines?

I find it pure coincidence that yesterday the movie "A crude Awakening" was made available on dvd to the public up here in Canada, and our national newpaper articled a story on peak oil, first time I read this in a paper.

OCB

[oilcanboyd]

Another thought just crossed my mind,.. does anyone think the lower 48 would re-open the idle wells that "gone dry" and extract addtional oil from them, there is approx 500K wells that were shut-in at 2000ppm oil in water content.

OCB

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'T')here are already lots of folks in third world countries that have been cut out of the picture and have to make other arrangements

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilcanboyd', 'A')nother thought just crossed my mind,.. does anyone think the lower 48 would re-open the idle wells that "gone dry" and extract addtional oil from them, there is approx 500K wells that were shut-in at 2000ppm oil in water content.

OCB

[Loderunner]

I recall that here in Metro DC post-Katrina, gas prices rose fairly significantly. It wasn't as bad as Atlanta or other parts South, but it did make an impact. The local news station did a survey asking people if they had changed their driving habits. About 90% of those surveyed said "yes." They would either ride the Metro more (there was record ridership, IIRC), or consolidate errands.

That being said, I think there certainly would be some changes to people's driving habits if/when gas prices soar. But, not everyone lives near decent public transportation. I'm originally from Pennsylvania, which seems to be nothing but sprawl from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh. What are those people going to do about travel? There's only so much carpooling and consolidation of trips to Wal-Mart/Target/Giant Foods that you can do.

In addition, I think everyone around here kinda knew that post-Katrina gas prices would eventually ease. In the long run, I think you would see people making more drastic changes to their lifestyles.

I see a lot of people talking about Demand Destruction. I'm not quite sure that I understand the debate. If prices skyrocket, there will be some effect on demand, of that I have no doubt. If things really get out of control (like a prolonged recession), it seems that would effect demand as well. But, that's not the point, I think. The point is that we'd be in a prolonged recession, that would be the crisis. What happens after that is anybody's guess.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hat if it is no gas at any price?

What if gas has to be rationed at $100/barrel for oil?

Demand destruction will only occur in countries who cannot afford to pony up the price.

In the US, price increases have not caused the conservation that it did in the 70's and 80's.

I flat don't see demand destruction outpacing demand at any price.

This isn't just any ol' commodity, this is the base commodity of energy upon which all else depends.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') flat don't see demand destruction outpacing demand at any price.