by Twilight » Fri 02 Mar 2007, 17:08:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'w')ell these days I'm one of them that are supposed to think of something and we're all stumped, I can tell you.
That's an intriguing comment. So...you view mitigation as somewhere between unlikely and impossible? Is there any chance you'd care to expand on this?
Welcome to Peak Oil.

I work in construction, infrastructure, and it's commonly accepted on the front line that we can't build anything fundamentally new, and no-one is planning to either. Worldwide, in mature markets the focus is on replacing equipment with almost identical units, and in new markets the focus is on building copies of what has been built elsewhere before.
So we're basically going over the peak with all the oil, gas, electricity, water, waste, transportation networks arranged exactly as they are now, except all the parts are stamped 2010 not 1960. Because no 'green' technologies exist that are as scalable as what has been incrementally improving for decades, and engineers like re-using proven stuff, all the manufacturing out there is already fully committed to renovating the global system to an identical configuration just to a better spec.
Funny thing is, if you ask someone involved whether towards the end of an item's service life (usually 30-50 years) there will still be the natural resources to make it work or make it useful, you're going to hear a lot of "Uh... erm... huh." So we're still going to be building airports and gas turbine power stations connected to centralised grids in 10 years' time, because those plans are already made and as good as paid for.
That's where we are with mitigation, you're going to have to wait until at least 2015 before there is space in the order books, factories re-tooled and some manufacturing slots are free. In the meantime, all those roads, airport runways and ski-slopes in the desert are going ahead, they're a done deal.
Now I'm not a total pessimist, I don't think anyone can really forsee a cataclysm and prepare for it, I'm not pinning my expectations to a single grand theory like the Dollar/Euro thing, I think the best way of getting through the coming years is being flexible and resilient enough to adapt to a long-term run of lesser calamities as they arise. I'm not about to retreat to a solar-powered log cabin or anything, but on the other hand I'm not getting too attached to heating and television.
What you can expect me to say quite regularly is that the chances of a constructive technological response are zero, just because the lead times and inertia in capital expenditure of this sort is so great. Especially as construction is almost recession-proof, you don't stop work on a ten-year project once it has begun just because the rest of the economy is having a hard time, and that is going to be true post-peak. The magical price signals tend to arrive years too late, that's why you often see brand-new warehouses and office buildings standing empty for years waiting until the next economic upturn brings a user.
I guess that's just a long-winded way of saying that nothing around us is going to be radically re-modelled for years afterwards, let alone in time. It'll just sit unused if it can't be used.
Just check out the timescales
here. Yes way man, yes way.
