[MrBill]

vision-master wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ame with businesses, right?

[vision-master]

NW Airlines gutted the Unions & then their stock became worthless. But the CEO has a special pension fund all for himself. Nice......

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lan Greenspan Warns That U.S. Economy May Slip Into Recession by End of Year


HONG KONG (AP) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the American economy might slip into recession by year's end.
He said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001 and that there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end.

"When you get this far away from a recession invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign," Greenspan said via satellite link to a business conference in Hong Kong. "For example in the U.S., profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle."

"While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008 ... with some slowdown," he said.

Greenspan said that while it would be "very precarious" to try to forecast that far into the future, he could not rule out the possibility of a recession late this year.

[firestarter]

If Greenspan's calling for a recession then it's almost a slam dunk certainty we're heading for a depression. He and his well positioned financial inside players were probably behind last week's bid up of gold and silver ahead of today's bomb drop by the maestro.

[strider3700]

the markets down 140 points so far this morning supposedly based on greenspans comments

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sabibaby', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AFO', 'R')ecession will be official in April 2007.
Depression is Officially considered when wallstreet crashes down at least 10%. This one is harder to guess, depending on how serious Iran/U.S. war will be.

Europe 2020

[sjn]

Bloomberg reports Yen carry trade is unwinding

[firestarter]

NASDAQ having its worst day since 2001. There's a broad based sell-off afoot. Of course CNBS sees this as a buying opportunity. Whatever.

[firestarter]

BTW, CNBC just announced TRADING CURBS NOW IN EFFECT AT NYSE. They're tripping the circuit breakers. Plunge Protection in battle gear!

[eXpat]

Another good article about the markets and the impact of the housing bubble here. The more I read, the more pessimistic i'm getting about this year.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'N')oone, at this point, knows whether the fed will lower or raise interest rates in response to a dire economic outlook. If there is any way in hell they can lower, they'll do it, or hold steady. The problem here is the dollar could lose nearly all of it's value. I'm talking half of it's present value against the Euro and a tripling of gold prices. Is this a possibility?

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'N')oone, at this point, knows whether the fed will lower or raise interest rates in response to a dire economic outlook. If there is any way in hell they can lower, they'll do it, or hold steady. The problem here is the dollar could lose nearly all of it's value. I'm talking half of it's present value against the Euro and a tripling of gold prices. Is this a possibility?

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'N')oone, at this point, knows whether the fed will lower or raise interest rates in response to a dire economic outlook. If there is any way in hell they can lower, they'll do it, or hold steady. The problem here is the dollar could lose nearly all of it's value. I'm talking half of it's present value against the Euro and a tripling of gold prices. Is this a possibility?

[JustWatch]

To MrBill,
I see from reading a number of your posts that you are one of the few who really knows what’s going on today! Please keep educating the masses! Most are completely clueless, or have only a very vague notion of financial reality. What I see happening, is that our culture is dead set on trying to figure out a way to live at everyone else’s expense! Just as you say on your postscript! It’s been going on for years.
A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.
Thomas Jefferson

What he said above!
The average voter, simply votes for politicians who will do as they wish, which is to give them lots of benefits and let them live at the expense of others. Look at the huge entitlements that will lead us to financial disaster. The huge numbers of government employees, federal, state, and local who are going to get massive pensions. How can anyone look at these numbers and not see that it just won’t work? The health care system is a total disaster, as the doctors and patients, who usually have either private insurance or Medicaid or whatever will order the best care available, regardless of the cost. Doctors and public hospitals overcharge with no concern at all. They know they will get it. For those poor unfortunate souls who find themselves hospitalized with no insurance, they will be drained of all their liquid assets! Those who do pay for their own health insurance are being drained the same way, but very slowly over their lifetimes! The Health and Human Services is the largest drain on the government, even bigger than the Department of Defense. When the baby boomers start to retire in a couple of years, watch out, something will have to give. I’ll leave 2 links below if anyone is interested in learning the basics of today’s problems. I’ve read these sites and most of what’s on them and the links they provide. I won’t claim that I know them to be 100% accurate, but would say they’re pretty close! This is only part of what one should learn before they get the idea they know all there is to know. I sure don’t know it all yet, but I learn all I can every day by reading everything I can get my hands here on the Internet. Best wishes and good luck!

http://www.federalbudget.com/

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/debt_a.htm

[ozkrenske]

Today/Yesterday was almost certainly a very bad hedging deal.

Large derivative exposure to the (always going up for the last year) China market were blindsided by a government announcement induced market drop and were forced to make serious sales of US assets to fund the Losses in China. Hence the 300 point drop in three minutes. Almost certainly there was a serious market intervention to stop a more dramatic end of day fall.

We'll see how it all continues to wash out over the next week. It could be the straw, it may not.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustWatch', '.')..
When the baby boomers start to retire in a couple of years, watch out, something will have to give.
...

[MOCKBA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'B')TW, CNBC just announced TRADING CURBS NOW IN EFFECT AT NYSE. They're tripping the circuit breakers. Plunge Protection in battle gear!

[MOCKBA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')oday was an interesting day for stocks...agreed? Something tells me it will get even more "interesting" when the baby boomers retire.

[shakespear1]

Here is what a well connected turnaround financier thinks of the World Economy

WILBUR LOOKS AT THE WORLD:
INTERVIEW WITH WILBUR L. ROSS, JR.,
Chairman and CEO, WL Ross & Co., LLC

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', ' Valuations have been going up partly due to the tremendous amount of capital available -- but probably even more so because of the relatively low interest rate environment and very permissive nature of debt markets. To provide a few anecdotal items, in the US, the average multiple of debt to EBITA in leveraged buyouts was about 5.7x in 2006. That is up from 4x in 2002 and just about back to the all time high reached before the credit bubble burst in the early 2000s. That is a danger sign. Also, interest coverage in leveraged transactions is now down to about 2 to 1. That also corresponds very closely to the worst in terms of ratings of high yield bonds. There have been tremendous quantities of these instruments in the last few years -- but about 1/3 of them have been rated single B or below. That is quite far into the junk category. And the uses of the proceeds are disquieting as well. Only about 13% has been used for capital expenditures to promote growth. Almost half has been for refinancing of existing debt or stock buybacks or dividends paid to sponsors. None of this is productive and most of the rest has gone for LBO transactions. So we believe both on a ratings and use of proceeds basis, the signs are there that perhaps by the end of 2007 or early 2008, there will be a big escalation of defaults from the currently low level.')

The article

[auscanman]

cube wrote: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')If we look at demographic numbers we are reminded over and over again that there is not enough young people to pay for all the old people's retirement social security benefits. I see no reason why the same idea wouldn't apply to stocks. Today was an interesting day for stocks...agreed? Something tells me it will get even more "interesting" when the baby boomers retire