[holmes]

I echo you on the fast collapse. I think it will be fast and furious. it is just about when that point is reached when it just blows out. The slow prolonged collapse I dont think is even possible anymore. How is it, with diminished carrying capacity of the land and the monstrous human biomass load, going to be compatible when the oil goes? It could be slow die off if the oil trickles to depletion. But the consumption of it will not allow a slow depletion. Guzzling is what is happening. Then one day bam the bottle is dry. I just dont see the carrying capacity and the population level being conducive to a slow one. Now if we were more rural with local food production with less industrial developement i can see a slow pop die off.

[eastbay]

.... just like a typical drunk.

The last can in a six-pack is polished off quicker than the first and then, without a thought to where more beer will come from *BAM* there's no more.

[mmasters]

Oil price skyrockets. Energy crisis. Hyperinflation. The US dollar goes into a downward spiral. Economic deflation, businesses start closing up left and right. Stock market disaster. Gold bubble. Runs on banks. US dollar marginally stays solvent. Food shortages. Police state enacted but fails. Ugly internal battles in corporations everywhere and in the media. Most investments go insolvent. The middle class goes poor and desperate. The US degenerates to third-world country status. Nature beats it up. US is unable to handle the crisis UN troops show up. People that can't manage will die off or be rounded up in detention centers. The crisis unites factions of the public to congregate in cities and work together. Fruitful use of liquid fuel is only possible for the rich.

Big fuckin mess.

[eastbay]

Oil price skyrockets. Energy crisis. Hyperinflation. The US dollar goes into a downward spiral. Economic deflation, businesses start closing up left and right. Stock market disaster. Gold bubble. Runs on banks. US dollar marginally stays solvent. Food shortages. Police state enacted but fails. Ugly internal battles in corporations everywhere and in the media. Most investments go insolvent. The middle class goes poor and desperate. The US degenerates to third-world country status. Nature beats it up. US is unable to handle the crisis UN troops show up. People that can't manage will die off or be rounded up in detention centers. The crisis unites factions of the public to congregate in cities and work together. Fruitful use of liquid fuel is only possible for the rich.



Ok, if that's what you think's in store for 2007, what do you think will happen afterward, when things start to really unravel?

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '[')i]Oil price skyrockets. Energy crisis. Hyperinflation. The US dollar goes into a downward spiral. Economic deflation, businesses start closing up left and right. Stock market disaster. Gold bubble. Runs on banks. US dollar marginally stays solvent. Food shortages. Police state enacted but fails. Ugly internal battles in corporations everywhere and in the media. Most investments go insolvent. The middle class goes poor and desperate. The US degenerates to third-world country status. Nature beats it up. US is unable to handle the crisis UN troops show up. People that can't manage will die off or be rounded up in detention centers. The crisis unites factions of the public to congregate in cities and work together. Fruitful use of liquid fuel is only possible for the rich.



Ok, if that's what you think's in store for 2007, what do you think will happen afterward, when things start to really unravel?

[peaker_2005]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '[')i]Oil price skyrockets. Energy crisis. Hyperinflation. The US dollar goes into a downward spiral. Economic deflation, businesses start closing up left and right. Stock market disaster. Gold bubble. Runs on banks. US dollar marginally stays solvent. Food shortages. Police state enacted but fails. Ugly internal battles in corporations everywhere and in the media. Most investments go insolvent. The middle class goes poor and desperate. The US degenerates to third-world country status. Nature beats it up. US is unable to handle the crisis UN troops show up. People that can't manage will die off or be rounded up in detention centers. The crisis unites factions of the public to congregate in cities and work together. Fruitful use of liquid fuel is only possible for the rich.



Ok, if that's what you think's in store for 2007, what do you think will happen afterward, when things start to really unravel?

[DesertBear2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '
')Ok, if that's what you think's in store for 2007, what do you think will happen afterward, when things start to really unravel?

[pea-jay]

I still think the system is still resilient enough to with stand a few body-blows and avoid collapse in the near term. A major disruption in oil will crush economic activity worldwide, trigger a severe recession as all of the poorer and non-essential users of oil drop out of the market. Miserable times but not TEOTWAWKI. I expect the same for non-energy related impacts such as a disaster or war. Painful but not deadly. Now overtime, each blow will bring us closer to the point of collapse but absent a simultaneous global trigger, even then it will be localized affecting regions first. Barring effective leadership I still expect to see catastrophic collapse but not before 2012. With good leadership, maybe much further in the future, if at all. Only a series of simultaneous events could advance that up, but as described elsewhere, that is fairly low on the probilitity scale.

[ccricers]

Peak oil as a concept has been around for many decades, about as long as global warming. But let's put things into perspective...ignoring any loss in energy production, wouldn't we also face certain die-off from climate change? Maybe not directly since humans adapt to climate, but as an indirect result of dying crops, and other important fauna/flora as it relates to our part in the food chain.

So here's the thing that's been puzzling me...why is peak oil, in relation to climate change, still remain a fringe underground following when climate change sounds more "doomerish" on the surface? Global warming messes with the whole planet; peak oil "merely" affects humans. No animal is going to notice when our oil grows scarce. They go on living. You'd think that with our individualist nature in today's societies, we'd put peak oil before the environment.

Both peak oil and climate change can be mitigated by the same task: phasing out fossil fuels. But only the latter is ever brought up as the motive for it. As people, we care about little more than ourselves. So why do so many open accept the global warming theory yet see Peak Oil as an idea concocted by nut jobs? Maybe it hits too close to home? Maybe we just need a big enough public figure to talk about it. Who will be our "Al Gore" of peak oil?

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ccricers', ' ')Who will be our "Al Gore" of peak oil?

[bobcousins]

It is not just about having a charismatic spokesperson. Climate change has credibility because it is backed by scientific organisations and the UN:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')andate and Membership of the IPCC

Recognizing the problem of potential global climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. It is open to all members of the
UN and WMO.

[Nike62]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ccricers', 'w')hy is peak oil, in relation to climate change, still remain a fringe underground following when climate change sounds more "doomerish" on the surface?

[MrMambo]

Good post!

PO is not mainstream yet because the mainstream mass media talks fairly little about it. Its not as credible as GW since relatively few scientists have been working on it and amoungst those who has worked on it many have predicted peaks too early, making them easy to lable as "doomer prophets" without merit.

Also there are some heavy power-groups who wishes for bussiness as usual and status-quo so that they can maintain their good position. That would typically be the major financial capitalists who does not wan't their wealth generating machinery to slow down or reverse and eat away from their wealth and power. Such people might be peak oil aware and see it in their interest to keep a lid on the issue so the mainstreem doesn' worry (extending the life of their wealth-machine), or they simply refuse to accept something that could potencially destroy much of their power base.

Countries like Russia, China, India, Venezuela are led by people who seem to understand the value of oil and minerals. They see that the current market price doesn't really reflect the future importance of theese resources, and does everything in their power to secure controll over those resources. But as much as China and Russias leaders might be accutely peak-oil aware, they would not like to send the message of how scarce they expect natural resources to become. Allerting other people or even people within their nation would bring up prices on the international market and heighten the geopolitical conflicts surrounding those resources. So its also in their nations interest to not talk much about resource depletion. Instead they just act rationally and play their cards well for as long as possible, until sooner or later its obvious to everyone what has been going on.

[eXpat]

IMHO Climate change is "popular" or mainstream because people still feels like is something to worry about in the future, so they feel like leaving a noble legacy to the generations to come, and besides it feels like there's a tecno-fix for that, either from the crazy proyects like putting huge mirrors in orbit to deflect sunlight to humbler ones like changing out technology to emit less CO2 (solar, nuclear, wind power, etc). Is a feel good thing...
PO on the other hand is exactly the oposite (from that point of view, or at least from the point of view of most people i have talked to), it means that misery is knocking your door now, it means huge economic changes and an end to consumerism, that is not an easy pill to take.

[Bioman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho will be our "Al Gore" of peak oil?

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bioman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho will be our "Al Gore" of peak oil?

[MattSavinar]

There's too much social fitness to be had from saying things like "the evil arabs and oil CEOs conspire to keep the price high" for people to acknowledge the physical reality.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'T')here's too much social fitness to be had from saying things like "the evil arabs and oil CEOs conspire to keep the price high" for people to acknowledge the physical reality.

[ccricers]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mr. Mambo', 'C')ountries like Russia, China, India, Venezuela are led by people who seem to understand the value of oil and minerals. They see that the current market price doesn't really reflect the future importance of theese resources, and does everything in their power to secure controll over those resources. But as much as China and Russias leaders might be accutely peak-oil aware, they would not like to send the message of how scarce they expect natural resources to become.

[jivah]

Hi,

I have been following the peak oil debate for a while although I have not contributed much, but one thing I have noticed is the lack of available visual material. As a flash animator I have been thinking of producing some licence free animations to cover global warming/peak oil that anyone can download and use for free on there web sites or presentations. As an example I have put up this

http://www.artesanto.co.uk/freeanims

You can get hold of the animations from here but I have also put up the flash files so you can use parts of it or even remake it into something else.

Would people find this sort of thing useful? Let me know what you think.

Cheers