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PeakOil is You

THE Peak Oil & Climate Change Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Peak oil/global warming animations

Unread postby canis_lupus » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 12:55:44

Beautiful information design, excellent Flash work.

Were I you, I'd contact the various SourceBook folks, art departments of the MSM, etc. I think they'd find this information very useful, especially the way you've designed it.

Good job!
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Re: Peak oil/global warming animations

Unread postby jivah » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:02:18

Hi canis,

Thanks for the comments, I will look them up.

Cheers
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Re: Peak oil/global warming animations

Unread postby pitbull » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 21:34:05

I like the animation, good job. How about one on peak oil now?
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Re: Peak oil/global warming animations

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 22:01:22

Lots of peakoil videos at youtube.

Something like this animation on peak oil would be good as a visual aid.
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Groups Urge New Drive to Fight Oil-Climate Crisis

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 22:51:37

Groups Urge New Drive to Fight Oil-Climate Crisis

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ctivists and foreign policy experts held a public forum this weekend to launch what they hope will be "a combined international movement" to respond to the threats of climate change and the depletion of oil and other cheap energy sources.

They said no less than "planetary survival" is at stake.

"Confronting the Triple Crisis" brought 60 speakers from 16 countries to Washington, DC, the capital of a nation "whose way of life is one of the key drivers behind the global crises we face," according to a statement from conference organizer International Forum on Globalization (IFG).

The 3-day summit was the first of its kind to examine climate change, peak oil, and the extinction of species as one interconnected problem with common solutions, according to the IFG and co-sponsor Institute for Policy Studies (IPS).

Speakers urged attendees to lobby their governments for more proactive climate change and energy policies and to make specific adjustments in their own lives to help mitigate the challenges the world faces. Among other personal initiatives, they suggested using more public transportation and consuming fewer -- not just "greener" -- products.

The Teach-In also coincided with the publication of the "Manifesto on Global Economic Transitions," an international call to action that upholds the idea of "less and local" -- buying fewer things and those that are produced nearby -- as a way to ensure a global transition towards a safer, more equitable, and sustainable world.


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Re: Groups Urge New Drive to Fight Oil-Climate Crisis

Unread postby americandream » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 00:11:16

If countries are prepared to shed life in war in order to preserve the current way of life, what hope have these deluded fools of changing them by exhortation.
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Re: Groups Urge New Drive to Fight Oil-Climate Crisis

Unread postby Doly » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 10:27:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')f countries are prepared to shed life in war in order to preserve the current way of life, what hope have these deluded fools of changing them by exhortation.


Oh, about the same as the people that organized the protests in the Sixties, the French Revolution, the American war of Independence, the...

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." - Margaret Mead.
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Re: Groups Urge New Drive to Fight Oil-Climate Crisis

Unread postby americandream » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 18:48:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')f countries are prepared to shed life in war in order to preserve the current way of life, what hope have these deluded fools of changing them by exhortation.


Oh, about the same as the people that organized the protests in the Sixties, the French Revolution, the American war of Independence, the...

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." - Margaret Mead.


All the above involved armed insurrection or the threat of armed insurrection (with the sixties, there was the risk of affiliation with the Soviets and all the underlying threat of armed struggle that carried.) In 10 years, we will be standing on the brink of mass extinction, despair and a complete loss of any faith in the ideals that once inspired us to great heights.

I have no doubt that the current liberal culture of "pacifism" and excessive "optimism" has completely neutered our ability to act to the degree where we are now gaily marching towards the end, in the meantime, merrily partaking of fantasies which inculcate a sense of feel good but nothing more
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Re: Groups Urge New Drive to Fight Oil-Climate Crisis

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 19:08:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', ' ')(with the sixties, there was the risk of affiliation with the Soviets and all the underlying threat of armed struggle that carried.)


What the heck?


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oil price and climate change question

Unread postby alokin » Fri 26 Oct 2007, 06:58:39

I know that's a bit optimistic:
Oil price will soar and US economy will face a deep recession.
As a result the Chinese can't sell their stuff to the US.
The rest of the world will face a depression as well.

Less goods, less transport = less CO2?

The climate will still change but maybe a bit less?
And if there are no buyers it makes no sense to replace the oil by coal.

But maybe this is only a very optimistic hope..
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Re: oil price and climate change question

Unread postby Doly » Fri 26 Oct 2007, 10:26:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', '
')Less goods, less transport = less CO2?

The climate will still change but maybe a bit less?


This is correct. Peak oil will reduce climate change, for example it has been proved that the worst-case scenario for emissions in the IPCC is incompatible with current calculations about peak oil.

This said, it doesn't eliminate the problem. It's a virtual certainty that the limit of 450ppm that the scientists calculate keep us within the 'safe' range will be breached, unless some very radical stuff happens. The most doomerish peak oil scenario probably would fit the bill of keeping us under the limit, but any soft landing would probably breach the limit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', '
')And if there are no buyers it makes no sense to replace the oil by coal.


Hmmm... that is a lot less clear. The problem is, we don't have a good substitute for oil. So, unless usage drops by the same amount or more as the natural decline due to economic forces, some coal-to-oil conversion almost certainly will take place.

And don't forget that natural gas is also peaking, and we use gas for electricity and heating. Some substitution of gas for coal is already happening. For example, in the UK, there are gas power plants and coal power plants, and there's a bidding system where the ones that offer cheaper electricity are the ones that will get switched on. For a while, the coal plants have been winning.
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Re: oil price and climate change question

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 26 Oct 2007, 11:47:10

Doly wrote

"Peak oil will reduce climate change, for example it has been proved that the worst-case scenario for emissions in the IPCC is incompatible with current calculations about peak oil."

The interaction between PO and GW is a very interesting one, but it must be pointed out that many of the worst case scenarios in the IPCC report have already been overtaken by facts on the ground. The rate of Artic melting, for one, is way ahead of what the IPCC predicted even in its worst case scenario. The scary thing is that the emissions don't have to add up to the quantities posed by IPCC to bring on catastrophic climate change. We seem to be already sliding down the slippery slope of runaway GW.

Also, it is my understanding that most transportation of goods, whether by ship, train, or tuck, is fueled by diesel, which is more plentiful than regular gasoline from light sweet crude. But I could be wrong here. Do/Can cargo ships run on coal? Perhaps some more informed than I in this area could chime in here?
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Re: oil price and climate change question

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 26 Oct 2007, 21:51:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'D')oly wrote

"Peak oil will reduce climate change, for example it has been proved that the worst-case scenario for emissions in the IPCC is incompatible with current calculations about peak oil."

The interaction between PO and GW is a very interesting one, but it must be pointed out that many of the worst case scenarios in the IPCC report have already been overtaken by facts on the ground. The rate of Artic melting, for one, is way ahead of what the IPCC predicted even in its worst case scenario. The scary thing is that the emissions don't have to add up to the quantities posed by IPCC to bring on catastrophic climate change. We seem to be already sliding down the slippery slope of runaway GW.

Also, it is my understanding that most transportation of goods, whether by ship, train, or tuck, is fueled by diesel, which is more plentiful than regular gasoline from light sweet crude. But I could be wrong here. Do/Can cargo ships run on coal? Perhaps some more informed than I in this area could chime in here?


If a civilian ship has an MV in front of its name it is a Motor Vessel and burns diesel/kerosene in a large diesel engine. If it has SS in front of its name it is a Steam Ship and probably burns bunker fuel (Bunker C or D probably). Bunker fuel is residual heavy oil left over in older style oil refineries, more modern refineries upgrade it as much as possible into lighter fuel and therefore produce much less of it. If a civilian ship has NS in front of its name it is nuclear powered, the USA, Germany and Russia have all built at least one of these but most of them have been converted to fossil fuel, scrapped, or made into museums.

Titanic and the ships of its era were coal powered SS, we could go back to that easily enough. Modern handling techniques would make it much less labor intensive to burn coal and feed it to the boilers than it was n the old days when coal was hand shoveled into the fire boxes.
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Re: oil price and climate change question

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 27 Oct 2007, 16:16:51

Thanks, Tanada. You are truly awesome!

So, since much of the fleet could convert to coal, will globalization roll happily along as the rest of us roll down the post peak slope?
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Re: oil price and climate change question

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 27 Oct 2007, 17:37:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'T')hanks, Tanada. You are truly awesome!

So, since much of the fleet could convert to coal, will globalization roll happily along as the rest of us roll down the post peak slope?


No need to rush around converting ships to coal fired steam just yet, ship's only consume something like 3% of petroleum fuel in both MV and SS vessels combined. Declines will have to be very far along before those vital shipping fuels are threatened.

Globalization will live on, unless we have a second great depression. If we have a bonified depression who is going to trade on that globalized market?
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Re: oil price and climate change question

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 28 Oct 2007, 08:46:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', 'I')s the world commerce more interdependant now than ever before? If so, isn't a depression very possible due to domino-effects from USA, China, India, Europe,...?
Yes the world is more interdependent now than at any time in the past, in the 1920's it was siamese relationships with NA/Europe being one and Europe/Africa-Asia being the other. When the Great Depression hit the USA it took down Europe, which in turn took down the market colonies in Africa-Asia.

In the 1970's when the USA went into recession Europe was not hurt as badly and Japan used it as an opertunity to move into the damaged parts of the USA economy.

Things have spread out, if the USA goes down the place most hurt will be China, because we are their market. Without us buying cheap plastic goods they will have to find other buyers, or suffer depression along with us. At this point Europe/Africa/Australia/Japan are not nearly as tied into the US economy as China is. The Middle East is totally tied into the USA but can sell petroleum to the other powers that be if we depress.

Unless the next depression takes out all the economies trade between Europe/Japan/India/South Africa/Australia will remain healthy and globalization will roll on.

IMO of course.
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2008 the year peak oil joins climate change at top of agenda

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 00:06:07

2008 - the year peak oil joins climate change at the top of the agenda?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s a couple of our resident peak oilers have already pointed out in comments (while some of us were off resting over the holidays), 2008 began with a bang on the peak oil front, with oil reaching US$100 on the very first day of trading in New York. While much of the mainstream media were still attributing this to geopolitics, the falling US dollar and a cold northern winter, all of which undeniably played a role, OPEC blew the whistle on the aspect which only a few are yet publicly acknowledging - demand is outstripping supply.

Today we’ve seen perhaps an even bigger shift, with the SMH reporting on page 1 that the CEO of General Motors, Rick Wagoner, opened the Detroit motor show overnight with a blunt statement that peak oil is here and the age of the petrol car is coming to an end.

Unfortunately, as far as I can see, the Herald is the only paper in Australia to have given this story any prominence. Perhaps the only one to cover it at all? Nevertheless, if Rick Wagoner is talking up the issue, it’s not going to go away, and the Rudd Government can either move now or get left behind, regardless of the lack of interest from the mainstream Australian media.

What Christine and the Greens have been advocating for some time now is a shift to a coherent and considered policy framework that addresses climate change and peak oil together. The most comprehensive statement on this so far is the report Re-Energising Australia, which you can read here. The emissions reduction targets now need upward revision in the light of the latest science and the Arctic ice melt, but the framework is nevertheless relevant. Fundamentally, we need fast action now to put Australia on track to a zero carbon future, with a short term challenge of making 2008 the year that Australia’s greenhouse emissions and oil use peak and start to come down.


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Re: 2008 the year peak oil joins climate change at top of ag

Unread postby steam_cannon » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 04:38:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]2008 - the year peak oil joins climate change at the top of the agenda?
That would be interesting, if peak oil became commonly accepted!

------------------------------------------------

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Re: 2008 the year peak oil joins climate change at top of ag

Unread postby kokoda » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 06:11:29

If you read the article you would realise that the reporter actually used the term "peak oil" ... not the CEO of GM. Wagoner actually said that demand was outstripping supply ... which in itself is a big admission.

In the end the whole thing was just a sales pitch to sell an electric car that will hit the markets in around 2010. Have we hit peak oil? Maybe.

Will GM save us with their new electric car? Well that what they would want you to believe.
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Re: 2008 the year peak oil joins climate change at top of ag

Unread postby steam_cannon » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 23:28:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'I')f you read the article you would realise that the reporter actually used the term "peak oil" ... not the CEO of GM.
But it is significant when reporters start using the term "peak oil".

Showing people "peak oil" is mainstream
http://peakoil.com/fortopic35648.html
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