by oil_rocks » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 14:06:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'T')he USGS predicted US peak at around 2100. It happened in 1970.
Peaked in 1970? Is that a fact? we are about to tap into new deposits in the gulf, plus we are aware of massive new deposits off the pacific coast and in the artic refuge. Its quite possible future production could far exceed that of 1970. It goes to prove my point that early predictions are not always correct as new discoveries are made.
The point about the diamonds is that the price for a diamond is very high to keep the supply & demand in check. that way there is no shortage. If and when oil does become more scare, the price is going to rise steeply which will have an effect on the demand. This is going to throw off all the peak oil predictions because all the models are based on a constant price.
and just to set the record straight, let me put out the current peak oil crisis theory to see if i have it right. correct me if i'm wrong, but i'm pretty sure i'll hit it on the head:
According to the best scientists of the day, the world has about 1,293 B barrels of oil, but due to overestimating by sadaam and the saudis, its actually only about 700 B. We consume 29 B/year so at current rate it would run out in 24 years. Plus factor in a growing demand as the industrialized world becomes more industrialized. Plus factor in China and India and now we are down to maybe 15 years of oil left at best. Now with only 15 years left, if we reference the hubbert curve, that means we must be on the back side of the curve, or at the very least very very close to hitting the peak, at which time the world will start producing less and less oil each year as demand continues to rise causing untold chaos, death, destruction etc etc.
is that pretty much right on?