Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Bas » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 04:24:16

Oil_rocks, you are not funded by exxon by any chance, are you? :-D
Bas
 

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 05:38:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'D')on't misquote me tonyprep, I never said i don't like predictions.
Don't misquote me, oil_rocks, I never said you didn't like predictions; I said that one of your arguments is that past predictions were wrong, therefore your prediction is right. You can't, on the one hand, use the fact of inaccurate past predictions as a basis for supposing all future predictions of peak must be wrong and then, on the other hand, make a prediction about peak (not for 100 years at least). If peak predictions are necessarily wrong, as you imply, then your peak prediction must be wrong.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'o')n the contrary i would really like to hear your predictions so we can see who is more correct 10 years from now. I have given many of my own and am quite confident that they will hold up well over time.
Of course you are, oil_rocks. However, I'm just a software developer and don't have access to all the information I'd need, nor do I have the training to interpret that information, to be reasonably confident of the timing of peak. I leave that to others better qualified than me. So far, their predictions appear to be putting peak a lot sooner than you do, even those who themselves rubbish the peak oil theory (like CERA). Do you think you have really presented such a robust case here that I should ignore all of those, with better resources and skills, in favour of your predictions? The one thing I am confident of predicting is that as this earth is finite, growth in the use of resources must eventually stop. It seems prudent to start adjusting to that reality now, whilst there are only 6.5 billion people here, with probably less than a quarter of those having a "western" standard of living.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'y')our buddy Raphael has made a prediction
I don't have a buddy called Raphael.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'i')ts a pretty safe bet to say he, like most of the other dooms-dayers will be proven wrong and more level-headed people like myself will hold the prevailing wisdom of the day.
No bet is safe, oil_rocks. And I don't think you've shown a level head at all, in this discussion. Many have pointed out flaws in your reasoning but you cherry pick the ones that you think you have an answer for. Unfortunately for you, your answers fall well short of answering any of the points.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'O')ne of my main problems with the whole peak oil crisis theory is that it does not factor in the price of oil. and withut that, you do not have real science. period.
Even your fabled EIA predicts continued rising demand. Even you predict continued rising demand. So we really have no idea what demand you have factored into your so-called calculations (since you haven't given us any calculations other than vague words about Saudi production).

Just what do you think will happen to the price of oil, and can you say why?
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Top

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 08:29:49

So as a final calculation, i expect to see us hit our peak oil crisis in about 400 years and finally run out of oil in about 730 years. +- 100 years.


The USGS predicted US peak at around 2100. It happened in 1970.

These silly wild numbers have been banded about about for years, and they've been wrong for years.
---
Battle_Scarred_Galactico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 935
Joined: Thu 07 Apr 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Chuckmak » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 10:04:58

It's clear you don't have our views, oil_sh*t, so, since you don't, why bother posting here? this is peakoil.com where we talk about the ramifications of, you guessed it, peak oil. we believe what we believe, you believe what you believe...kinda like oil and water. they don't mix. you're gonna state your case until you're blue in the face. we're gonna state our case until we're blue in the face. so why continue? go to some other site where the people believe your views on this subject.
"if god doesn't exist, it is necessary that we invent him" - Voltaire

"they say prescott bush funded hitler" - Nas

Image
Chuckmak
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1000
Joined: Sat 19 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Bridge City

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby dinopello » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 10:41:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'H')ave you ever wondered why diamonds are not in a shortage even though everyone loves them and there are relatively few of them in the ground?


This is kind of random, but I don't love diamonds. They can be beneficial in industry for some things but otherwise they aren't very useful are they ? What do you use them for oil_rock?
User avatar
dinopello
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6088
Joined: Fri 13 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: The Urban Village
Top

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 11:27:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd clueless, I understand where you get your ideas from, but you simply don't understand the basics of supply & demand economics. Have you ever wondered why diamonds are not in a shortage even though everyone loves them and there are relatively few of them in the ground?


Please tell me what EXACTLY I don't understand about supply and demand economics? I have not made one ECONOMIC prediction and I don't throw terms out that I don't have any understanding of. ANd if I am getting your drift it solidifies my whole point. The US is addcited to cheap diamonds - Diamonds are about to get more expensive and the UNited States is going to start feeling the pain. That is the only prediction I have made. This is just yet another weak attempt by you to smokescreen the discussion from your statement that there is "no such thing as peak oil".
User avatar
clueless
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1001
Joined: Tue 13 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Just the right place
Top

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Ingenuity_Gap » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 12:05:39

Oh, were are the glorious days of JohnDenver and Lorenzo, when we could had at least a semi-intelligent, semi-decent conversation about the flaws in the Peak Oil theory?

Aren't you scared guys of the recent drop in knowledge and IQ of the latest detractors like oil_rocks?

If this is the best they can send out to counter us, the world is in for a rough ride, considering 50% of the population is even dumber.

oil_rocks, go back to the drawing board, and after you thoroughly document yourself about the PO theory, meaning you read at least a few of the relevant books, newspaper articles and you listen to what some smart key people related to the oil industry, geology and economics have to say, come back and tell us what you think.

So far you made a fool of yourself, showing little understanding of the scientific principle, huge logic flaws, totally fragmented knowledge about the subject and last but not least an utterly emotional worldview based on grossly misplaced faith in a future technological advancement that may never come.

As you can see I'm unable to tolerate your crass ignorance and total lack of understanding of basic scientific principles and for that reason I greatly admire the robust patience that some fellow peak oilers like TonyPrep showed you.

You cast a great deal of shame on the software developer's guild by displaying such inferior intellectual standards.

Your only pitty excuse would be if your age would not exceed 12.
"The world is becoming too complex and too fast-paced to manage." - Thomas Homer-Dixon
User avatar
Ingenuity_Gap
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 199
Joined: Fri 25 Nov 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Right place, wrong time

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 12:18:36

duplicate post.
Last edited by clueless on Tue 13 Feb 2007, 12:21:47, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
clueless
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1001
Joined: Tue 13 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Just the right place

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 12:21:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd clueless, I understand where you get your ideas from, but you simply don't understand the basics of supply & demand economics. Have you ever wondered why diamonds are not in a shortage even though everyone loves them and there are relatively few of them in the ground?


And one other thing you need to understand oil_rocks are that third world countries that are seeing enourmous amounts of industrial expansion from massive venture capital inflows need to secure long term energy supplies (including transportation fuel), to put investors at ease about making long term investment in their country - factories and goods are useless if you cannot power the factories and haul the goods to market in a cost effective fashion.

In other words my friend...If you are the head of third world country and are encouraging massive capital investment - the expectation from investors is that long term energy supplies will be secured in order for the investors to make thier ROI (that means Return on Investment if you didn't know).

So in effect Mr. Economics Hobbyist, Countries seeing large amounts of captial investment are looking quite a few years into the future to secure energy supplies, ANd it takes many years to realize a profitable return on a 2 billion dollar factory project.

And the fact that China is looking in places like Canadian Tar sands and deepwater drilling does no bode well for your theory that "Peak Oil" will happen "200 years" from now.
User avatar
clueless
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1001
Joined: Tue 13 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Just the right place
Top

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 14:06:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'T')he USGS predicted US peak at around 2100. It happened in 1970.
Peaked in 1970? Is that a fact? we are about to tap into new deposits in the gulf, plus we are aware of massive new deposits off the pacific coast and in the artic refuge. Its quite possible future production could far exceed that of 1970. It goes to prove my point that early predictions are not always correct as new discoveries are made.

The point about the diamonds is that the price for a diamond is very high to keep the supply & demand in check. that way there is no shortage. If and when oil does become more scare, the price is going to rise steeply which will have an effect on the demand. This is going to throw off all the peak oil predictions because all the models are based on a constant price.

and just to set the record straight, let me put out the current peak oil crisis theory to see if i have it right. correct me if i'm wrong, but i'm pretty sure i'll hit it on the head:

According to the best scientists of the day, the world has about 1,293 B barrels of oil, but due to overestimating by sadaam and the saudis, its actually only about 700 B. We consume 29 B/year so at current rate it would run out in 24 years. Plus factor in a growing demand as the industrialized world becomes more industrialized. Plus factor in China and India and now we are down to maybe 15 years of oil left at best. Now with only 15 years left, if we reference the hubbert curve, that means we must be on the back side of the curve, or at the very least very very close to hitting the peak, at which time the world will start producing less and less oil each year as demand continues to rise causing untold chaos, death, destruction etc etc.

is that pretty much right on?
User avatar
oil_rocks
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri 26 Jan 2007, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 14:29:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eaked in 1970? Is that a fact? we are about to tap into new deposits in the gulf, plus we are aware of massive new deposits off the pacific coast and in the artic refuge. Its quite possible future production could far exceed that of 1970. It goes to prove my point that early predictions are not always correct as new discoveries are made.


So according to your thinking the last 35 years of US oil production the markets have produced absolutley no additional production increase, which completely nullifies your argument that as price goes up new alternatives will be found - What do you attribute that to oil_rocks ? Why is China cutting deals all over the world to secure long term oil contracts, if your theory holds true they should just wait for the "market" to solve the problem.

The best scientists estimate ANWAR production to be about 1.5 million bls over 15 years. Are you saying that the Pacific continental shelves have not been explored ? If so, you are absolutley wrong - They would not be hyping Jack2 deposits deep in the Mexican gulf if "Massive New Deposits" were "proved" reserves (to use your logic). Oil companies are now hyping "Solar" "Wind" "BioFuel" (the magic 20/10 formula from GWB - DO you really fall for the 20/10 equation oil_rocks ?? If so you are no different than the average "consumer minded " American.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he world has about 1,293 B barrels of oil, but due to overestimating by sadaam and the saudis, its actually only about 700 B.


I haven't the slightest idea how much oil actually exists - Will you please cease with the forecasts ? What I have said is that the "Stated" reserves are not inspected by third parties, foxnews, the EIA or anyone else and should be scrutinized.

What I also am saying is discoveries and production are definitley slowing, which is a paradigm that will not bode well for a global ecomomy that has been built upon abundant and inexpensive fuels. I really enjoy this debate, but you really need to quit projecting your flawed logic onto others.
Last edited by clueless on Tue 13 Feb 2007, 14:32:52, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
clueless
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1001
Joined: Tue 13 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Just the right place
Top

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Chuckmak » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 14:30:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', 'T')he USGS predicted US peak at around 2100. It happened in 1970.
Peaked in 1970? Is that a fact? we are about to tap into new deposits in the gulf, plus we are aware of massive new deposits off the pacific coast and in the artic refuge. Its quite possible future production could far exceed that of 1970. It goes to prove my point that early predictions are not always correct as new discoveries are made.


The last year we as a planet discovered as much oil as we used in a year was 1986. That says a lot, doesn't it?

Aight then, homie. Do you, and we'll do us. Cool?
"if god doesn't exist, it is necessary that we invent him" - Voltaire

"they say prescott bush funded hitler" - Nas

Image
Chuckmak
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1000
Joined: Sat 19 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Bridge City
Top

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Chuckmak » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 15:36:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ingenuity_Gap', 'O')ilrocks too will drift away and leave us with nothing but bone fragments, tuffs of fur, and bits of hide.


:lol:
"if god doesn't exist, it is necessary that we invent him" - Voltaire

"they say prescott bush funded hitler" - Nas

Image
Chuckmak
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1000
Joined: Sat 19 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Bridge City
Top

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Ingenuity_Gap » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 15:49:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ingenuity_Gap', 'O')h, were are the glorious days of JohnDenver and Lorenzo, when we could had at least a semi-intelligent, semi-decent conversation about the flaws in the Peak Oil theory?
good point. I've noticed a rapid decline in debunker intelligence lately. Is it because we are mean?

Visit the Simmons thread where you will observe Jbecktron as a somewhat competent debater. He is smart but bloodied and is about to be dragged to the ground and torn apart by a pack of PO hyenas. He does not stand a chance.

Oilrocks too will drift away and leave us with nothing but bone fragments, tuffs of fur, and bits of hide.


I don't know about the others but I'm mean because I can't stand people who talk before they think, and oil_rocks provides the best example of this behavior.

For peak oil's sake, oil_rocks, go do your homework and then come and debate us.

I'm sorry, I can't read this thread anymore. The utter ignorance just hurts my brains.
"The world is becoming too complex and too fast-paced to manage." - Thomas Homer-Dixon
User avatar
Ingenuity_Gap
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 199
Joined: Fri 25 Nov 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Right place, wrong time
Top

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 16:19:33

oil_rocks,

I think you may find more people drifting away from this discussion. You apparently yearn for more science in the peak oil debate but present none yourself. Your latest comment about the US potentially producing more than they did in 1970 illustrates the entire basis of your position - hope. You seem to have many beliefs about peak oil, and hardly a single solid fact to base them on. And just to top it off, you see demand and production continuing to rise and yet see prices rocketing to suppress demand. So you don't even have your own story straight.

Look, oil_rocks, a peaking of available energy (particularly in transportation) is a scary thing. A peaking of finite resources is scary. It is obvious that most people, including yourself, would not want that to happen. But we do live on a finite planet, so peaking of all limited resources is a certainty. If there is an unbroken line of descendants, from you, then it's inevitable that some of them will face a collapsing society. I know you don't want it to happen to you, but it is entirely possible.

It should be abundantly clear to you that you have convinced no-one and not even altered anyone's opinion a fraction. People round here are fairly clued up on the facts surrounding peak oil, so your argument must be weak indeed. Try doing more research and some real calculations, before trying again.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 17:04:45

well i'm just trying to help you guys out. I provided a clear version of the peak oil crisis theory that i'm sure 90% of you sign on to (which shows us running out of oil in about 15 years). But every year that goes by you guys end up scratching your heads and saying, "I don't understand it. Our projections all show that we should have hit the peak by now but it just never seems to happen". Well, I have shown many reasons for why we have not hit the peak yet and why we will not be hitting it any time in the next 20 years. Its just meant to be a helpful service and allow you guys to get some much needed sleep at night. a simply 'thank you' would be appeciated.
User avatar
oil_rocks
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri 26 Jan 2007, 04:00:00

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 17:11:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')hich shows us running out of oil in about 15 years


We will never run out of oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut every year that goes by you guys end up scratching your heads and saying,


Who ? Nobody in this thread has said such a thing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')ervice and allow you guys to get some much needed sleep at night


Peak Oil doesn't keep me up, but my 6 month old does - Can you offer a solution for that ?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I have shown many reasons for why we have not hit the peak yet and why we will not be hitting it any time in the next 20 years


I have not made any forecasts for the "peak" I just know that the new paradigm will be more expensive and less abundant, which will make life in the US much more difficult.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ''')thank you' would be appeciated.

Thank you for revealing to me the ignorance of the average American.
User avatar
clueless
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1001
Joined: Tue 13 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Just the right place
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests