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THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby Cerryl » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 05:23:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'M')onteQuest and Jack you are right people will die in the USA.
However they will not die the way wou expect at all.
Tney will not die in a disorganised way by gangs or starvation.

They will be executed by the new american state.

The supreme dictator whatever his name is will make some laws like:
ETC, ETC...


So who exactly do you think will be enforcing the will of our new masters? The military? You think the military will just blindly go along with such a regime change? You also seem to think that this 'power elite' is a monolithic group with no internal divisions and rivalries.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby Jack » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 05:58:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'M')onteQuest and Jack the flaw in your arguments is in my honest opinion that you underestimate the power of organised state.


Interesting premise. I agree that local militia groups would be little more than target practice; their collective stupidity is breathtaking.

That said, I'm not so sure that the U.S. is capable of pulling off the degree of repression you propose. Let me clarify - they may well be ruthless enough to do so, but they are not competent to do so.

So we disagree on a fundamental premise. I suppose we'll find out over the next few years. 8)
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby chris-h » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 06:38:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'M')onteQuest and Jack the flaw in your arguments is in my honest opinion that you underestimate the power of organised state.


Interesting premise. I agree that local militia groups would be little more than target practice; their collective stupidity is breathtaking.

That said, I'm not so sure that the U.S. is capable of pulling off the degree of repression you propose. Let me clarify - they may well be ruthless enough to do so, but they are not competent to do so.

So we disagree on a fundamental premise. I suppose we'll find out over the next few years. 8)



First of all i hope that we find out what happens say later than sooner.

But it is not a question of competence.
The soviet communists were totally incompetent unlike the nazi.
Yet they managed to do just fine killing 20 million people.
It is not a question of competence but a question of scale.
When the military is 2 million people the secret services another 2 million and 2 million more informers exist and you are alone well sooner or later they will get you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o who exactly do you think will be enforcing the will of our new masters? The military?

The military in combination with the police the secret services the media and the tv.


Just an educated guess about our new masters
The oil man, the rich ,the managers in useful multinationals the army generals the director of the secret services.
The people that happen to rule now are the same people that know very well about the peak oil and are the same people that prepare the new america order with the war on terror the patriot act the massive increase on military spending the merging of top multinationals the real id act the war on Iran that would need a draft.A draft would hugely increase the internal power of the military and so on .It does not matter that people hate a confrontation with Iran.Once it starts it will be them or us. Better us.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby Cerryl » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 07:24:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'T')he military in combination with the police the secret services the media and the tv.

The oil man, the rich ,the managers in useful multinationals the army generals the director of the secret services.


Of course, all the different people and organizations you mentioned all love each other very much and would be happy to cooperate to enforce this new order. They certainly wouldn't end up fighting tooth and nail amongst themselves for control. Not to mention that the rank and file members of these organizations would never desert or rebel in mass once really nasty orders start coming down from the top. Competence isn't the problem with this scenario, a lack of unity is.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby Concerned » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 07:30:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'Y')es i am sure that Russia and SA will expirience an imminent decline if the price goes to $500 :sarcasm:


Exactly!

Not to mention the US and North Sea (UK) will once again pick up production to offset current declines. If only the price was high enough the world would be awash with oil.

It's basic econ 101 supply and demand.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby chris-h » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 07:44:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'Y')es i am sure that Russia and SA will expirience an imminent decline if the price goes to $500 :sarcasm:


Exactly!

Not to mention the US and North Sea (UK) will once again pick up production to offset current declines. If only the price was high enough the world would be awash with oil.

It's basic econ 101 supply and demand.



Concerned i do not think that US and North Sea can pick up production.
If they could they would do it now with oil at 60 $.

Plus production is the wrong word. Extraction is the proper word.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby bshirt » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 08:14:29

I doubt the USA's federal government will survive in any large or coherent shape for long.

While there's little doubt that the overwhelming vast majority of military/law enforcement organizations would attempt to impose any brutal dictates from their master, who would pay them in worthwhile money? Feed them? Arm them continously? Transport them?

I have to agree with Kunstler's scenario resulting in the breakup of the USA.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 08:37:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')1) Cars belong to the state now . Disobidience means execution.
2) All property belongs to the state now. Disobidience means execution.
3)Turn all guns to the state now. Disobidience means execution.
4) All hail the new order now. Disobidience means execution.
5)Forget your old jobs.Your new jobs will all be manual unless you are the 5% of the inner circle or whatever.Disobidience means execution.
6)You will go to the city if we order you or to the country if we decide that is best .
Disobidience means execution.
Execution could be immediate like being put on a pike or slow by being work to death in the coalmines.

Don't worry about that.
Should Olduvai Theory prove right, nuclear war will be an answer (authoritarian governments will certainly form before that, but they will not last long before an ultimate war takes place - look on Great Depression and WW2 for precedence).
Rich and poor are tending to be equal for nukes, albeit young and heathy can be more equal, than old and sick.
Naturally, about 50% of population will survive initial exchange, but fortunately nearly all elites and/or their wealth will be gone.
In such elite-decapitated world emerging warlords will make final order and post-modern feudal system will gradually emerge.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby chris-h » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 08:46:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', 'I') doubt the USA's federal government will survive in any large or coherent shape for long.

While there's little doubt that the overwhelming vast majority of military/law enforcement organizations would attempt to impose any brutal dictates from their master, who would pay them in worthwhile money? Feed them? Arm them continously? Transport them?

I have to agree with Kunstler's scenario resulting in the breakup of the USA.



The roman empire had no problem existing or ruling without oil or nat gas or coal or alternatives.
They used slaves , wood and gold.
Other ancient empires that big had no problem also.
The Persians,Great Konstantine Empire.
The British had no problem ruling the world with just coal.
One british company so huge that it ruled India had no problem existing in 1689
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_East_India_Company
Surely this one with more resources will have no problem as well to rule america +mexico .
who would pay them in worthwhile money?
Gold is worthwile money. It will not dissapear because of peak oil.
The american people will pay them .

Feed them? The 50 million usa and 50 million mexicans of the new slave farming class.

Arm them continously? That is easy . They have enough arms for 100 years at least.

Transport them? Rail. Rail will be built even if 5 million so called "enemies of state" die building it.

It is also a question of priorities. The army will have the no 1 priority unlike now.

With 15 K right now they are on the bottom of the food chain. This will change.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby bshirt » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 09:16:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he roman empire had no problem existing or ruling without oil or nat gas or coal or alternatives.
They used slaves , wood and gold.
Other ancient empires that big had no problem also.
The Persians,Great Konstantine Empire.
The British had no problem ruling the world with just coal.


The roman empire, the greatest empire of the last 5,000 years, had at the peak of their power, a very fragile and tenous grip on France, Germany and Britain.

Revolts were common and complete and total anihilations of roman legions happened many times. Conquered territories generally were taxed, not inslaved. Finally, even for the romans, the logistics cost of maintaining huge armies hundreds of miles away from Rome resulted in bankruptcy.

To claim the Romans, Persians, British, etc had "no problem" maintaining their empires is simply not true.

The USA is only one example.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby chris-h » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 09:18:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')Don't worry about that.
Should Olduvai Theory prove right, nuclear war will be an answer .


Peak oil will not make the elites mad.
The elite that actually make the decisions think exactly like this.
How i can spend less and earn the most.
Mutual destruction is something they will avoid no matter what.
As an example the Soviets did not start a nuclear war.They fought proxy wars.
Also democracies are ofter more agressive than dictatorships.
As an example i can think of an extremely agressive democracy that supports at least 30-40 passive dictatorships.

Also nukes can be used as a fuel.That makes economic sense. Mutual assured destruction does not.


Finally if you mean that nukes will be used in an act of desperation let me assure you that only the masses will be desperate.
Not our rulers.They have been preparing for a long time.
As an example Bush ranch.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prairie_Chapel_Ranch

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he passive-solar house is positioned to absorb winter sunlight, warming the interior walkways and walls of the residence. Geothermal heat pumps circulate water through pipes buried 300 feet (100 m) deep in the ground. A 40,000 US gallon (151 m³) underground cistern collects rainwater gathered from roof urns; wastewater from sinks, toilets, and showers cascades into underground purifying tanks and is also funneled into the cistern. The water from the cistern is then used to irrigate the landscaping around the four-bedroom home.



http://www.faulkingtruth.com/Articles/G ... /1001.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')So, what’s the story with the Bush Ranch? Located in Crawford, Texas, the Bush ranch is a model of environmental planning. Within the confines of his ranch, Bush appears to be a different man. The ranch contains solar panels to generate electricity for heating water. He collects rainwater for landscape irrigation. His air conditioning system uses groundwater. He has a graywater recycling system. And the grasses he has planted on the ranch are natives.



http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/p ... pel31.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Bushes immediately began transforming it into their Texas home, building a 4,000-square-foot, limestone-walled, passive-solar living quarters, adding an 11-acre pond stocked with bass and other fish, and planting native grasses and flowers

Bush prefers bicycles to horses, and he never claimed to be a cattleman.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 11:04:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')Don't worry about that.
Should Olduvai Theory prove right, nuclear war will be an answer .


Peak oil will not make the elites mad.
The elite that actually make the decisions think exactly like this.
How i can spend less and earn the most.
Mutual destruction is something they will avoid no matter what.
As an example the Soviets did not start a nuclear war.They fought proxy wars.

Soviets believed, they have a future.
World of collapsing energy supply is a world of no future. There is no precedence of that.
Elites will have following choices:
1. Go to resource wars (even if nuclear).
2. Do nothing and face civil wars instead.
After all there will be a President, many military commanders and plenty of senior civil servants who will want to be most important of all.
If they cannot/decide not to use nukes against 'alien' enemy, they may well use them against each other...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso democracies are ofter more agressive than dictatorships.
As an example i can think of an extremely agressive democracy that supports at least 30-40 passive dictatorships.

And so such democracy (US) will go to run resource wars.
One of them will turn nuclear...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso nukes can be used as a fuel.That makes economic sense. Mutual assured destruction does not.

Sorry, but you are wrong here.
Lack of trust between major powers will ensure, that nukes are not used for power production. Basic arms are the last thing, you are releasing yourself of...
MAD will become to be a necessity in Olduvai scenario. It will be just major resource war. It will ensure, that your resources are not going to be taken away.
It will also do nicely for population control...


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')inally if you mean that nukes will be used in an act of desperation let me assure you that only the masses will be desperate.
Not our rulers.They have been preparing for a long time.
As an example Bush ranch.
Rulers will also be desperate to prevent civil wars.
Such wars cannot be stopped in societal collapse scenario. Even China is concerned, that excessive hardship in North Korea can lead to Kim's failure, civil war and large number of refugees.
Failing rulers are not needed and can be disposed off.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prairie_Chapel_Ranch

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he passive-solar house is positioned to absorb winter sunlight, warming the interior walkways and walls of the residence. Geothermal heat pumps circulate water through pipes buried 300 feet (100 m) deep in the ground. A 40,000 US gallon (151 m³) underground cistern collects rainwater gathered from roof urns; wastewater from sinks, toilets, and showers cascades into underground purifying tanks and is also funneled into the cistern. The water from the cistern is then used to irrigate the landscaping around the four-bedroom home.


http://www.faulkingtruth.com/Articles/G ... /1001.html
It is not impotrant, what Bush, or whoever else done to prepare/protect himself.
It is more important, that few hundreds of "zombies" with basic arms or few tanks of competing warlord can destroy it.
You have to realise, that you must pay your army to keep them loyal. That will be extremely tricky task under societal collapse scenario.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 11:41:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', ' ')MonteQuest and Jack the flaw in your arguments is in my honest opinion that you underestimate the power of organised state.


Flaw? You propose conservation as a solution. Conservation is reduced economic activity. Someone has to absorb that loss. It usually means people get laid off. Where is the flaw in that argument?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')onteQuest there is always work for manual labors


I would think that through if I were you.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 12:47:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')onteQuest there is always work for manual labors


I would think that through if I were you.


That's why there's no unemployment in China, India, Africa, South America, Russia, Mexico, and the rest. :roll:

There are millions of unemployed unskilled workers currently wondering where their next meal will come from...and this in a world with cheap energy.

Some combination of renewable energy sources will keep us from falling into a total collapse scenario. But even the most optimistic scenario doesn't allow business to continue as usual.

There will be a dramatic decrease in the global standard of living over the course of the next 50 years. My vision for the future looks a lot like the TV series, "Dark Angel". A wealthy elite and lots of not-so-wealthy people watching as things slowly sink further down. The trick will be becoming the support staff for this new elite. And yes, there is a limit for how many unskilled laborers will be needed.

A decrease in our standard of living doesn't mean that everyone will be starving and miserable. We can survive with less stuff and still lead happy, fufilling lives.

I just wonder how much of our current knowledge base will survive.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 13:10:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')I just wonder how much of our current knowledge base will survive.


Better start printing hard copies before the grid goes down...
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 13:19:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')There will be a dramatic decrease in the global standard of living over the course of the next 50 years. My vision for the future looks a lot like the TV series, "Dark Angel". A wealthy elite and lots of not-so-wealthy people watching as things slowly sink further down. The trick will be becoming the support staff for this new elite. And yes, there is a limit for how many unskilled laborers will be needed.

You may well try to get there and become a member of elite.
Why do you wont to be a support stuff only?
There will be a plenty of ways to become a member of elite under societal collapse environment if you are only imaginative enough...
Consider it to be Darwinian competition. Good luck.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby JPL » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 19:14:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
There are millions of unemployed unskilled workers currently wondering where their next meal will come from...and this in a world with cheap energy.


For the majority of the 3'rd world energy is very expensive. That's why most Indian cooking fires are fired on cow-dung.

The fact that 20% of the worlds elite might be about to rejoin everyone else is not, planet-wise, a big issue.

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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby Jonathan_Hoag » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 19:58:35

You guys are funny! $500/bbl? Long before oil prices even begin to approach that level (more like around $100 or even before) alternatives will be utilized. Things like Fischer-Tropsch (coal liquification) or nuclear. Olduvai is wishful thinking by a bitter Neoluddite, nothing more.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 11 Feb 2007, 21:28:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jonathan_Hoag', 'Y')ou guys are funny! $500/bbl? Long before oil prices even begin to approach that level (more like around $100 or even before) alternatives will be utilized. Things like Fischer-Tropsch (coal liquification) or nuclear. Olduvai is wishful thinking by a bitter Neoluddite, nothing more.


You must understand the meaning of that statement you just made.

Wow, water got really expensive! Now I guess I have to make soup with champagne! Good thing champagne is so cheap!:roll:

It's a logical fallacy that just because one item gets more expensive that the substitutes for that item will be inexpensive.

Imagine that I have to eat 2000 calories a day to survive.

I can get those calories by eating nothing but corn or nothing but steak.

If the price of corn goes up to the point where it would be less expensive to eat steak, I'm still paying more for food regardless of the relative costs of the two items.
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Re: The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 12 Feb 2007, 01:05:38

Pstarr, that is basically what I was trying to say.

But I guess I need a realistic example to explain what I mean.

Ok.

Oil costs $60 a barrel.

Solar costs, say, $180 per barrel of oil equivalent. (Let's just pretend that this is the case for the purposes of this example).

Right now, oil is 1/3 the cost of solar and I can get one Oil-Barrel-Of-Energy for $60.

Oil suddenly costs $200 a barrel. Solar somehow stays at $180 per Oil-Barrel-Of-Energy.

Is solar now cheap?

NO!

An Oil-Barrel-Of-Energy has tripled in price!

We would have to spend 3x more on money energy than before when oil was cheap. Our society would still end up suffering an economic recession regardless of the fact that we now had a solar based rather than an oil based economy.
(Even if you ignore the relationship between the price of solar energy and the price of oil)

Deciding to drink champagne rather than water because water prices have gone up doesn't leave you better off financially. You are still spending a much larger % of your income on beverages than you were when water was cheap.
(Even ignoring the relationship between the price of champagne and the price of water)
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