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Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby coyote » Sun 07 Jan 2007, 12:57:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')ny first world nation, specially one in possession of uranium or thorium ores can build nukes, if deemed necessary.
Technology is more than 60 years old and well understood.

But the trick is to develop a reliable intercontinental delivery system, isn't that right? That's why people freaked so hard over NK's missile testing.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby MacG » Sun 07 Jan 2007, 15:18:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '1')) China is a communist state .Business failure does not mean uneployment.


You mean like in the Soviet Union then? Or North Korea?
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby chris-h » Mon 08 Jan 2007, 07:56:48

Australia will be ok.Much poorer but ok.
For South America it depends.Countries that have oil and nat gas and can protect these reserves (buy bying nukes in the black market) would be ok.
All the others will suffer a terrible fate.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '1')) China is a communist state .Business failure does not mean uneployment.


You mean like in the Soviet Union then? Or North Korea?


MacG system failure and collapse is different from business failure.
China will not collapse.Both 2 countries that you refer suffered from a terribly expensive arms race or extremely hostile opposition. China has not such problems and never will unless people want all those made in China goods to disapear.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby katkinkate » Mon 08 Jan 2007, 08:43:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '.')...Or, when the time comes, you will be invaded. For those massive amounts of resources, do you have the infrastructure to make use of them? Does Australia have nukes?


Not yet, but I'm sure we could buy some from somewhere.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby katkinkate » Mon 08 Jan 2007, 08:57:09

OK, my turn. (Kate places tongue firmly in cheek) I predict that in the year 2012 Toba will blow and wipe out 95% of the human population in the northern hemisphere and maybe a few in the southern. Thus after the sun comes back, Australia will be sitting ready to take over the world. (Kate removes tongue from cheek) :roll:
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby Doly » Mon 08 Jan 2007, 09:34:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')1) China is a communist state .Business failure does not mean uneployment.


You can always give people something to do, but you don't bring money in by keeping people busy. You bring money in by selling.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')2)In a period of 15 years that US,EU,Japan imports could collapse the chinese will not have time to adjust their economy ? Are you sure?


It doesn't look like such a long time to me to completely restructure your economy, but hey, what do I know?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')3)What about more exports to rich oil producers ?


Rich oil producers are only going to consume a fraction of what the USA consumed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', '
') You can't just retool export industries for internal consumption because neither the demand nor the exchangeable wealth is there to absorb the supply.


Demand not there ? Everybody likes more !
Wealth is not there ? Good let's increase people wages. Like henry ford did.
Because he wanted ford workers to be able to afford model-t he doubled their wages.

If you increase people's wages, that will make the goods they produce more expensive. I imagine Ford's trick worked because the main cost of the car was the parts, not the wages paid to workers. In the case of Chinese goods, they are cheap because the wages paid to workers are low. If you increase their wages, the goods become significantly more expensive. In other words, it's unclear that an economy where Chinese people consume Chinese goods is workable.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby chris-h » Mon 08 Jan 2007, 11:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')If you increase people's wages, that will make the goods they produce more expensive. I imagine Ford's trick worked because the main cost of the car was the parts, not the wages paid to workers. In the case of Chinese goods, they are cheap because the wages paid to workers are low. If you increase their wages, the goods become significantly more expensive. In other words, it's unclear that an economy where Chinese people consume Chinese goods is workable.



Let see. Nike shoes are made in China and cost 3 $ to make.
From those 3$ less than 1 is the Chinese wages.
So if you double Chinese wages Nike's will cost 4$ to make in China.
So because those same Nike's are sold in the west $100 and the profit will be reduces from $96 to $95 nike will have to double the price of the shoes to $200 ?
I do not think so.

Before peak oil Nike can close factory and relocate.After peak oil it will be extra hard.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby Kingcoal » Mon 08 Jan 2007, 16:22:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')If you increase people's wages, that will make the goods they produce more expensive. I imagine Ford's trick worked because the main cost of the car was the parts, not the wages paid to workers. In the case of Chinese goods, they are cheap because the wages paid to workers are low. If you increase their wages, the goods become significantly more expensive. In other words, it's unclear that an economy where Chinese people consume Chinese goods is workable.



Let see. Nike shoes are made in China and cost 3 $ to make.
From those 3$ less than 1 is the Chinese wages.
So if you double Chinese wages Nike's will cost 4$ to make in China.
So because those same Nike's are sold in the west $100 and the profit will be reduces from $96 to $95 nike will have to double the price of the shoes to $200 ?
I do not think so.

Before peak oil Nike can close factory and relocate.After peak oil it will be extra hard.


That's a nice profit margin. Are those real figures? If so, I'm buying some Nike stock!

Regarding China, this is the old Spartan argument, meaning; "they are so used to hardship, they will prevail when things get bad for those softies who take advantage of them." Well, history shows that the exploiters do fantastic during good times and so so during bad times. The exploited do OK during great times and very bad during bad times.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby TigPil » Mon 08 Jan 2007, 20:21:29

No sorry, Nike's profit margin for the last twelve months is just under 9%.

With profit margins so thin I wonder where the raw materials for the shoes come from. If the cost of transporting raw materials to China and then transporting finished shoes to other markets increases significantly, Nike is going to have some serious issues with their current cost structure.

In any case, I'm not sure a new pair of athletic shoes is going to be the top priority in a post-peak oil world. I think food, water, shelter, heating and cooking fuel and some basic medical supplies would be more important. People in the developed world have wardrobes that could last for years before requiring replacement.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby chris-h » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 01:27:00

20 cents per hour.
If Nike payed like 40 cents per hour they would be bankrupted

:sarcasm:

Oh yes i forgot
They have to pay thir fat cat executives millions in options,
expenses for brainwashing people to buy more shoes ,
expenses to sell them at western stores and more.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lormand/ ... e101-4.htm
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ikes track record.

So how do you sell a shoe for $180 that cost just $5 labor to make? Nike's grand strategy is quite simple - first, enter developing nations whose people are desperate for work because they are kept in poverty by brutal dictatorships. Nike's money will benefit these oppressive governments, who will in turn aid Nike in crushing labor unions and abusing workers. Second, Nike convinces America's youth to "Just Do It" and "Be like Mike" - emulating college and pro sports heroes. At the same time, they buy billions in advertising from national TV networks and millions more from major universities, which are slow to respond to Nike's actions in Asia. The result is a huge profit for Nike.

Just Don't Pay Workers.

The people making that $180 pair of shoes and other Nike gear and apparel are mostly young women, ages 16-24.. Though, in Pakistan, as of 1996, children were sewing Nike soccer balls for $0.60 a day. In China, new workers are illegally forced to pay one month's salary as a "deposit" which is forfeited if they do not work for a whole year. 75% of Indonesian workers will quit within a year. In Vietnam the average worker is paid about $0.20/hour, or $1.60/day. The cost of eating is reportedly $2.10/day. Although this figure is above the minimum wage, Nike's subcontractors do not even pay that. Many Vietnamese workers do not make the minimum wage of $45/month. Furthermore, in an interview of 35 workers, all confessed that in the first 90 days at the factory they received below minimum wage.

In Haiti, workers are paid $0.30 an hour - not enough to eat or to send children to school. However, Nike is not satisfied with the factory and recently announced that they are moving it to China.

Just Overwork Them.

In Vietnam, workers are forced to work 65 hours a week - for $10. Not only are they forced into overtime without compensation, the 65 hour work week is in clear violation of Vietnamese labor laws. Those employees that do last often work over 500 hours in overtime per year. The Vietnam law restricts a corporation to 200 hours in overtime per year.

Just Poison the Air.

Workers complain that many faint during shift from exhaustion, heat, fumes and poor nutrition. Ernst and Young similarly found in China that the plants have no safety goggles, fume hoods or gloves for workers handling dangerous chemicals such as benzene and toluene, a known carcinogen that poses a fatal risk. Exposure rates were upwards of 177 times that considered dangerous. In the same Chinese factory, almost 78% of the workers had a respiratory disease. Despite the respiratory illness, not one of the workers had been moved to a department that was free from these dangerous chemicals.

In this factory, there is one doctor and two nurses to service 10,000 workers. In the Sam Yang factory in Vietnam there is one doctor who works two hours a day to service 6,000 workers.

Just Abuse Laborers.

Employees in Vietnam have stated that verbal abuse and sexual harassment are frequent and that corporal punishment is often used. Supervisors have been reported to frequently grab the women's breasts and buttocks. Furthermore, according to the CBS News, 15 Vietnamese female workers were hit over the head with a Nike shoe for "poor sewing". 2 of them were sent to the hospital. In Indonesia a woman collapsed on the job and died because she did not receive medical attention. If the woman had taken a sick leave, she would have been fired. On International Women's Day, 56 women were forced to run around the outside of the factory in the hot sun for wearing nonregulation shoes. 12 of these women were hospitalized.

Just Stomp Unions.

Indonesian laborers have suffered a wide range of abuses for attempting to organize. One worker was locked in a factory room and interrogated for a week by the military. In Bangladesh, workers were involved in a protest requesting the release of 2 workers who had been jailed. Before giving their statement, the police fell upon the workers - 9 were jailed, 50 seriously injured and 250 others injured. 97 of the workers were fired and some 800 charged as criminals by the Indonesian government. Earlier that year, 10,000 workers at a factory in Tangerang went on strike over a pay raise of $0.20/day demanded by the Indonesian government. In response, the factory had threatened to cut the $7.75/month attendance bonus previously allotted to the workers. A consulting firm reported that 30% of business costs are payoffs to Indonesian generals, government officials and cronies. In the meantime, the Indonesian government is pressing for more stringent restrictions on labor unions. On the other ha d, according to the LA Weekly, a spokesman for Nike has offhandedly wondered out loud "whether or not Indonesia could be reaching a point where it is pricing itself out of the market."

Just Misinform Workers.

Nike has reportedly responded to many of these allegations by widely publishing their Code of Conduct in the factories. In Indonesia, at Nikomas (Niketown), about half of the code had been edited so that the workers would not understand they could file grievances with the company. Similarly, in Vietnam, few workers had even heard of the code or knew what provisions were within it.

Just Keep Moving.

Although Nike argues that they enter a country only when it is ready to make shoes and leave when it has developed past the point, the data suggest a different story. Nike's movement correlates with increased standard of living and increased union bargaining power. When the pressure for wage increase is put on, Nike moves. This corporate strategy allows for the cheapest labor costs and bargains with the worst governments. The result? They can keep making shoes for about $2.00/pair in labor costs. And according to the LA Weekly, even Indonesian officials have admitted that the types of jobs that Nike offers bring little "self-sustaining economic development".




$2-$5 labor cost for a $180 shoe !!! Oh that is too much !!!! :sarcasm:
Image what would happen if they double they pay to $4-$10 .
Major inflation !!! :SARCASM:


http://www.nlcnet.org/campaigns/archive ... tion.shtml


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ike is another example, with approximately 50 contractors in China, employing more than 110,000 workers. One can see the “swoosh” and “Just Do It” slogan painted on the walls of Nike’s contractor’s factory, Sewon, right behind the locked metal gate and the iron bars and grates covering the windows. People in the community told us that the young workers are paid 20 cents an hour and work 11 to 12-hour shifts. Also, they explained, they factory will not hire anyone over 25 years of age.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow is Nike’s actual behavior in China spreading respect for human rights?

A recruitment ad for the Lizhan factory where New Balance sneakers are made advertised for “Females only, age 18-25.” The base wage at the factory is 18 cents an hour, and the workers need permission to leave the factory grounds. Factory and dorms--where 20 women share one small dorm room, sleeping on triple-level bunk beds--are locked down at 9:00 p.m. every night. When workers in the polishing section could no longer stand the grueling overtime hours and low pay and went on strike, they were all fired. Factory management then lectured the remaining workers that they would not tolerate unions, strikes, bad behavior or the raising of grievances.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby LateGreatPlanetEarth » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 02:04:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
Let see. Nike shoes are made in China and cost 3 $ to make.
From those 3$ less than 1 is the Chinese wages.
So if you double Chinese wages Nike's will cost 4$ to make in China.
So because those same Nike's are sold in the west $100 and the profit will be reduces from $96 to $95 nike will have to double the price of the shoes to $200 ?
I do not think so.

Before peak oil Nike can close factory and relocate.After peak oil it will be extra hard.


nike now has competition. a $15 shoe that's actually being used in nba games. http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061002/southpaw
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby NEOPO » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 02:35:58

A good thread gone squishy head :o

No Neocon here yet the Neocon's are not going out like that.
Peak oil + 9/11 = Iraq and Afghanistan...plus...wait for it...Iran?
Further desperation = ?

People worry about Russia hmmm.
Take a look at a pre WWII map and then look at a post WWII map.
Are you starting to get the picture comrade? 8)

The people will starve and the tanks will still roll for oil.
I take that back - the people will slave in the feeds growing rapseseed or sugar cane and barely being fed and the tanks will roll on 100% vegetable oil or ethanol or some groovy eco friendly mix of both!!!

Personally I feel sorry for any country that has any resources and does not have nuclear defense capability.

I will have to side with EU here and again not a Nuclear advocate actually against it yet you know thats the way its going to go and coal to liquids and coal and some more coal....did I mention coal?

It really is a bigger uglier picture.

Currently alot of chinese oil demand depends on american walmart crap which is purchased by the middle and lower classes in order to have some extra spending money which they use to buy more walmart crap or party etc etc., AKA use energy/oil....it all has the same effect usually.
Engineer an economic slow down for the US and you slow down the world.
Implode a few 2nd and 3rd world economies here and there like maybe the SA stock market, the japanese stock market, the US housing market which we know "they" helped inflate in the first place etc etc.
All in a days work for a Neocon.

Economic hitmen - international business killing machines - controlled demand demolitions - poof all gone.....
Economic "squibs".....
Operation "who's your daddy now bitches?"

If you want to know where the oil is not going in the future then look no further then todays 3rd and 2nd world economies which rely on oil.

Venezuala is like a bleeding tuna in a shark tank......
The tar sands might as well be US territory....
After careful review I conclude that the US, RUSSIA and BRITIAN are BFF and that no one can stop them :lol:

To truly know the force one must understand the dark side.....
It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby Doly » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 05:50:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '
')After careful review I conclude that the US, RUSSIA and BRITIAN are BFF and that no one can stop them :lol:


BFF?
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby chris-h » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 05:55:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
BFF?


Best Friends Forever
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby Chuckmak » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 08:10:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LateGreatPlanetEarth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
Let see. Nike shoes are made in China and cost 3 $ to make.
From those 3$ less than 1 is the Chinese wages.
So if you double Chinese wages Nike's will cost 4$ to make in China.
So because those same Nike's are sold in the west $100 and the profit will be reduces from $96 to $95 nike will have to double the price of the shoes to $200 ?
I do not think so.

Before peak oil Nike can close factory and relocate.After peak oil it will be extra hard.


nike now has competition. a $15 shoe that's actually being used in nba games. http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061002/southpaw


The STARBURY!!! Hahaha these things have been hot in the hood for a minute. I actually need to get a couple pairs of 'em (not the ones Starbury wears but his other ones in the line...the New Balance knockoffs and the AF1 knockoffs)
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby Gazzatrone » Thu 11 Jan 2007, 08:48:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'B')ut they are going to do just fine otherwise


You are talking about a country that has the two largest armed forces. i.e its Government run Armed Force, and its civilian armed Force.

the average figures for deaths caused by related gun crime alone come to 30,000. And thats without Peak Oil. Do you really think that the US are going to be pally with each other. Its a fundementally Capitalist society, the motto of which is "Only the fittest survive"

Things aren't going to be just fine in the US because there will be a lot of people royally pissed off when they realise they have been lied to about a great many things.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby Scactha » Tue 16 Jan 2007, 07:26:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'A')fter careful review I conclude that the US, RUSSIA and BRITIAN are BFF and that no one can stop them :lol:

To truly know the force one must understand the dark side.....

Ever the american response to threats...and as incredolous looking at the track record of this tool.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby BlackVoid » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 11:41:51

My prediction:
USA will be hit hard, but low population density and technology can save them from starvation. Government control will increase, the USA is already a police state. But more likely the US will disintegrate into several states. Refugees from Mexico will be a huge problem. Biggest problem for the USA is that the US is a consumer society, reality will be hard to accept for people. And many people have firearms. It is not going to be pretty.

China
China will collapse and break up. Their agricultural production is in decline. They produce mostly for exports to Europe and USA. Mass starvation will set in. They could go to war as a last result, but with 2 nuclear super powers standing that is very risky for them.

Russia
Russia will be just fine with their reserves. Likely they will be left in peace as well and they are unlikely to invade anyone. First they have a shrinking population, secondly they have the resources. They may invade former resource rich ex-Soviet states. They will need the EU as a trade partner for technology, highly unlikely that they will invade Europe.

EU
EU is leading in renewables, there is good public transport in lot of the countries. If the collapse is not too harsh, the EU may even survive. UK and Norway may have food problems. However if the EU disintegrates, wars may broke out. There are already signs of Germany / Russia cooperating more closely. A German-Russian-French alliance could replace the EU. If not, then there will be wars all over the place.

South America
I know too little, but their overpopulation can cause a lot of trouble. On the other hand, Venezuela has oil and Brazil has ethanol, they actually may keep their current economies for a little longer than other parts of the world.

Australia
Climate change is hitting Australia very hard, but their low population density, low population + uranium and coal can easily sustain them. It is unlikely for anyone to invade them, it is just too far away.

Japan
They have the technology + the mental preparedness to survive, but they are very much dependent on oil. They may go to war for the resources if the US is no more. Just like in WW2, but no need to attack PH.

Indonesia
The pirate problem will get really serious, but not just here - all over the seas. Shipping will not be safe.

Free trade will be the first victim as people will reestablish industries to supply them with clothes and other goods locally.

The big question: which countries can control the crash?
I see the best chance for this for Japan and Russia.
The countries that have the greatest chance to disintegrate: China, USA.
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby Ludi » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 12:09:50

Blackvoid, what "technology" will save US citizens from starvation?
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Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.

Postby BlackVoid » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 12:29:17

I do not know which one, but having manufacturing capacity for Solar/biodiesel tractors and windpower may help.
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