[chris-h]

Third world : It has already started shutting down.Very soon it will be back to medieval times.Media age to live there approx 25 years
The lucky countries will be ones that have no resources to be stolen with extreme violence.

USA. Citizens categorized in 4 classes.
A The very rich
B People that have health care now
C People that do not have health care now but have a place to stay.
D The homeless

The A : No problem .All gonna move in gated communities with more private cops than ever.

The B: No health care or driving for them . But they are going to do just fine otherwise .Constant fear of being unlucky and dropping to the "C" class.

The C : The new homeless

The D: Living hell in earth.
Most C and D are going to "live" in suburbia.
B will live in the cities
Overall a much much poorer country.

EU.
States will state together for protection. There is a huge cultural difference in USA versus EU . IN USA war means success. IN EU it means death and suffering.
Small states will be afraid of Russia of going alone and being pray of another state and the rich states will take advantage of this.
I see a major turn in the left and or fascism for most EU states and much less driving but otherwise everything will be fine.Everyone including the ultra rich will be poorer.

UK. A much much poorer country but they will survive unless the gulf stream shuts down.If in does then mad max.

Russia : The new superpower much more important than USA in the future.
Nukes + oil + gas + people used to difficulties huge advantage

China They will just retool their exports for internal consumption.They have some oil and lots of coal big hydro and with most of the remaining manufacturing capacity in the world the only country able to mass produce renewables with ease after peak oil.
The huge population is extremely young and even children work. They have a huge surplus able to outbid everyone else for oil.They are a dictatorship can control their people and any excess baby girls can basically disappear a big advantage after peak oil.
A new superpower.

India Just a big third world country . It is going to collapse suffer mass death.Nuclear war with Pakistan is possible.

Japan . They will do poorly but they will survive.
Their society is totally controllable they have no sprawl the ceo gets no more than 10 times than the cleaner in a corp they have the best infrastucture nobody will invade they can have a nuke built in 60 days .They will do alright even though they have no energy resources.

SA. They will do great .They have lots of oil they are going to sell it in a high price. No invasion will happen at their territory.

Overall . Big more powerful states are going to do much better.
Richer countries will do much better than poor ones.
The ultra rich no problems.
The rich will become poorer.
The poor will become slaves.

History will continue.
Mad max will happen but only in Africa.
Max will be black and will have aids.

What do you think ?

[TreebeardsUncle]

Hi. When do you see this unfolding? It seems likely that the undulating plateau started by 2005 or so and the slide should happen in about a decade.

[Ludi]

I don't see how category B will be "just fine" without jobs.

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') don't see how category B will be "just fine" without jobs.

[Kingcoal]

Whenever we do these predictions on how different regions will fare in the future, you can always tell where someone is from because they always think that their corner of the the world will be poorer, but "still ok" and that other regions will colapse and whatnot. I'd say that chris-h is from continental Europe.

[TigPil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina They will just retool their exports for internal consumption.They have some oil and lots of coal big hydro and with most of the remaining manufacturing capacity in the world the only country able to mass produce renewables with ease after peak oil.
The huge population is extremely young and even children work. They have a huge surplus able to outbid everyone else for oil.They are a dictatorship can control their people and any excess baby girls can basically disappear a big advantage after peak oil.
A new superpower.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')Overall . Big more powerful states are going to do much better.
Richer countries will do much better than poor ones.
The ultra rich no problems.
The rich will become poorer.
The poor will become slaves.

What do you think ?

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', '
') A very large portion of the surplus and wealth generation is driven by exports. These exports are sold primarily in the developed world (US, EU, Japan) although some portion go to other markets. If the mass consumer economies elsewhere collapse then the Chinese export industry collapses and you have mass unemployment.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'W')henever we do these predictions on how different regions will fare in the future, you can always tell where someone is from because they always think that their corner of the the world will be poorer, but "still ok" and that other regions will colapse and whatnot. I'd say that chris-h is from continental Europe.

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')Overall . Big more powerful states are going to do much better.
Richer countries will do much better than poor ones.
The ultra rich no problems.
The rich will become poorer.
The poor will become slaves.

What do you think ?

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')Overall . Big more powerful states are going to do much better.
Richer countries will do much better than poor ones.
The ultra rich no problems.
The rich will become poorer.
The poor will become slaves.

What do you think ?

[Kingcoal]

I have to agree with you, JPL, Americans have been spared any real hardship. While Europe was being bombed into rubble during WW2, the US was ramping up manufacturing to fight the war. The Twin Towers disaster was a blip in comparison.

I also agree with JPL’s assessment; “overall, no change.” Just look at history.

[feudalfuture]

My Opinion:

China will implode, wealth is concentrated in the hands of few. There will be mass starvation, wars with India and Russia, not to mention rebels in Tibet. China is a house of cards that will fall rather quickly if peak oil hits. It will be in chaos and break into 3 or 4 other countries. Manchuria, Tibet, South China and North China.

Russia has the best opportunity for expansion at the expense of China.

India will also move against it lesser neighbors like Bangledesh, Pakistan and encourage Tibetian rebels.

Germany, France and England will keep Russia at bay in Europe.

The United States will face mass invasion from Mexico and could lose the southwest. Eastern US and Canada should be fine plenty of food, water and energy (tar sands, hydro and wind)

3rd world will return to high birth rates and high death rates.

All in all a world wide die off, with more poor than rich dying.

Just my humble opinion.

[TigPil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '
')1) China is a communist state .Business failure does not mean uneployment.
2) What about more exports to rich oil producers ?
3) Demand not there ? Everybody likes more !
4) Wealth is not there ? Good let's increase people wages. Like henry ford did.
5) The chinese certainly can afford everything they make at the chinese price of Z .
6) What will happen to the massive surplus it already has ?
7) China is a communist state . It can use price controls.
It produces much more oil than is needed solely for agricoltural uses .China communist goverment will prioritise.
There will be no food shortages in China.
Chinise people instead will start to use bicycles again.

[katkinkate]

You lot are all hemispherist. There is a southern half to the planet as well. What to you see happening for S America and Australia?

[TigPil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'Y')ou lot are all hemispherist. There is a southern half to the planet as well. What to you see happening for S America and Australia?

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'Y')ou lot are all hemispherist. There is a southern half to the planet as well. What to you see happening for S America and Australia?

[Johnston]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nvironmental meltdown for both. Especially South America, with the loss of the Amazon rainforest and the decimation of biodiversity from monocropping ethanol. Australia if the drought there continues due to climate change.

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Johnston', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nvironmental meltdown for both. Especially South America, with the loss of the Amazon rainforest and the decimation of biodiversity from monocropping ethanol. Australia if the drought there continues due to climate change.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '
')Or, when the time comes, you will be invaded. For those massive amounts of resources, do you have the infrastructure to make use of them? Does Australia have nukes?