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1st post! Question to Peakville!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 00:38:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Draco', ' ')Maybe this isn't going to be TEOTWAWKI after all?


Now, back to the topic...

Lack of transparency is the #1 thing we need to address according to Matt Simmons.

TEOTWAWKI will most certainly come calling if we are not prepared to deal with tthe economic ramifications of peak oil by knowing how much oil we have left, and how much we can produce at what rate.

Is peak oil 20 years off?

I think not.

Will tar sands or shale make a dent?

Not much.

Scability and low EROEI rules.

Your post smacks of complacency.

We are just in a volitility dip on the peak oil roller coaster.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 05:47:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')This says man is better than, more deserving, and superior to other life forms, including those that take care of him. The biological systems that make dirt soil, gases atmosphere, and water clean are not important.


Yup. That's what he thinks:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'T')he importance of ecology and environment is entirely an opinion. We don't need large predators, jungles, wildlife preserves, swamps or any of the other contrived ecological means to service humanity.

We've been creating our own ecologies for some time, and eventually we'll abandon such clumbsy mechanisms as biology.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Judge Doom', 'Y')ou lack vision, but I see a place where people get on and off the freeway. On and off, off and on all day, all night. Soon, where Toon Town once stood will be a string of gas stations, inexpensive motels, restaurants that serve rapidly prepared food. Tire salons, automobile dealerships and wonderful, wonderful billboards reaching as far as the eye can see. My God, it'll be beautiful.


I think Dezakin would agree.

Yes, yes I do.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 05:52:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Draco', ' ')Maybe this isn't going to be TEOTWAWKI after all?

Will tar sands or shale make a dent?

Not much.

Scability and low EROEI rules.

Scalability matters. I think its scalable. Capital avaliability matters. I think it will be availiable. EROEI doesnt. Energy can come from nukes. (or coal, or solar, or ridiculously large windfarms)

But the test will come.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Niagara » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 08:57:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')So, how does replacing useless jobs with essential jobs use less energy?

That's easy. 70% of US oil consumption is used for transportation.

How much oil would be saved by:

-eliminating the daily commute to the Cube Farm
-eliminating business air travel
-living in a walkable/bikeable (is that a word?) community where all your daily needs are within an easy reach, unlike Suburbia

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Even the most wanton of waste and uselessness drives GDP and employs millions.

That's precisely my point. The key word is 'uselessness'.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby dinopello » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 09:08:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '
')-eliminating the daily commute to the Cube Farm


Cube farms are so 90's. Do you guys still have those ? I thought most jobs that could be done in a cubicle were outsourced to India. Around here the rage is 'Hoteling' where you share space at the office because everyone is on flextime and/or telecommutes on some days. Also, for those that don't work on classified stuff, the working at the third place/coffee shop is big.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 09:22:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ') I think its scalable. Capital avaliability matters. I think it will be availiable. EROEI doesnt. Energy can come from nukes. (or coal, or solar, or ridiculously large windfarms)


You think it scalable.

I don't think you count.

The CEO of the Canadian tar sands project says it's not.

You cannot produce from shale and tarsands like you can from conventional oil. Period.

That is well known and involves EROEI and scalability.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 09:25:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')So, how does replacing useless jobs with essential jobs use less energy?

That's easy. 70% of US oil consumption is used for transportation.



1 out of every six jobs is tied the the automotive industry.

Just give all these folks a pink slip?

You aren't going to use the useless jobs energy to create useful jobs are you?

Kind of defeats the purpose , doesn' t it?

You are just moving the end use. Reduces nothing.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Niagara » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 09:45:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')1 out of every six jobs is tied the the automotive industry.

Just give all these folks a pink slip?


Ford and GM are circling the drain.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Draco » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 09:51:20

Thanks so much for the informed and intelligent input!


My thing regarding peak oil at this point is if it truly was the case, this admin wouldn't be able to manipulate the prices and drive crude to $58.50 pb as of the last check I made and down from 3.09 to 1.99 at the pump!?


This seems more market driven and political, rather than pure supply and demand...


However I could be wrong and we have already reached peak and now just excessively using up our limited remains!


P.S. Anyone have current info on the status of Ghawar? Are the water cuts really in the 80-90% range?
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 19:37:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ') I think its scalable. Capital avaliability matters. I think it will be availiable. EROEI doesnt. Energy can come from nukes. (or coal, or solar, or ridiculously large windfarms)


You think it scalable.

I don't think you count.

I don't think you count either! Neener neener neener. This isn't a very adult discussion you realize.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he CEO of the Canadian tar sands project says it's not.

Cite? Which CEO of which canadian tar sands project? Its not monolithic, and there are many companies involved there. That

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou cannot produce from shale and tarsands like you can from conventional oil. Period.

Punctuating sentances with full words is childish and pretentious. Period.

But really, you're stating the obvious. Conventional oil is far cheaper in terms of capital infrastructure. Unconventional plays are still capable of tens of millions of barrels per day of production however... for the right price. Its probably as high as sixty billion per million barrels per day for CTL, which seems expensive untill you compare it with the size of the global economy.

Likewize for tar sands and oil shales.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is well known and involves EROEI and scalability.
EROEI is unimportant. It only determines if you can burn the bitumen to mine the bitumen.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 20:14:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Draco', 'M')y thing regarding peak oil at this point is if it truly was the case, this admin wouldn't be able to manipulate the prices and drive crude to $58.50 pb as of the last check I made and down from 3.09 to 1.99 at the pump!?


Asked and answered. Katrina, etc.

Do you actually think that anyone can manipulate a stock floor commodites market?

Can farmers set the price of corn?

How does the Bush admin force people to sell their oil futures?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever I could be wrong and we have already reached peak and now just excessively using up our limited remains!


Or the people that used to consume oil aren't anymore due to high prices, and what they can no longer afford has driven down prices by being available on the market.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 20:22:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Draco', ' ')Maybe this isn't going to be TEOTWAWKI after all?

Will tar sands or shale make a dent?

Not much.

Scability and low EROEI rules.

Scalability matters. I think its scalable. Capital avaliability matters. I think it will be availiable. EROEI doesnt. Energy can come from nukes. (or coal, or solar, or ridiculously large windfarms)

But the test will come.
that's real smart. using coal to produce shale oil. Why not liquify the coal? duh

If you have the infrastructure to liquefy the coal it makes sense. If you have a bunch of tar sands infrastructure to run on NatGas that now costs too much, and you dont have a coal liquefaction plant, you might just convert to coal burning, at least in the short term.

I sort of doubt that this will happen however. Too many alternatives that look better in the area.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 20:33:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'C')ite? Which CEO of which canadian tar sands project?


Suncor Energy. Televised national statement saying tar sands are not the answer. He said, while they plan to triple tarsands production in 15 years to 3 mbpd , the world will need another 20 mbpd.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nconventional plays are still capable of tens of millions of barrels per day of production however... for the right price.


Some day, perhaps. But not in the forseeable future. From the Hirsch report:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')We know of no comprehensive analysis of how fast the Canadian and Venezuelan heavy oil production might be accelerated in a world suddenly short of conventional oil."


Tar sands production is now 1 million barrels a day and is projected to increase fivefold by 2030. By then the world will need 35 mbpd more oil to meet projected demand.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ROEI is unimportant. It only determines if you can burn the bitumen to mine the bitumen.


No, it determines the cost to extract it.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 21:24:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 't')hat's real smart. using coal to produce shale oil. Why not liquify the coal? duh
I think I'll take a stab at answering that.

Because we don't have time (see Hirsch et. al.), and the energy return is too low (see South Africa and Nazi Germany).



Energy return on coal is so low that sasol is one of the most successful companies in SA.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')his is nonsensical, circular, and evasive reasoning. Why do you need to call upon 'better alternatives' at this late moment in your weak argument. CTL, tar sands, and the rest are pitiful alternatives to light sweet crude and you know it.

What do you think I was talking about? I was talking about process energy for tar sands, and I think theres too many alternative process energy sources that are better in the area for running the tar sands projects to make coal attractive.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for a 'tar-sands infrastructure' There is none.

Oh damn. They must have really conned the central office when the spent those billions on infrastructure in the Ft Mac area. Must have been a wild night at the strip club.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby EnergySpin » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 21:44:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')r a daily commuter in Chicago or New York or LA. There are no walkable communities on the north american continent. I know. I supposedly live in one.

So Phile, New York, Boston, Chicago and (possibly) Pittsburgh etc do not have walkable communities?

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