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1st post! Question to Peakville!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Dezakin » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 16:08:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'O')bserved declines in production are often at flat pricing, where its just cheaper to pump somewhere else than to spend money on infrastructure for enhanced recovery.


Huh? Are you saying that (for instance) the USA is not pumping as much any more because its just cheaper to import it from a hostile country halfway around the world and thats why US domestic production declined?


Yes.


[smilie=laughing4.gif]

By that way of thinking we are sucking oil from 12000 feet under the gulf because its cheaper than the sources on land . right?

Only recently has this become afordable, and then its still less expensive than extracting shale oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')0,000 reactors? 8O I think I'm done here....

20 terawatts of power is what we'll need, and you can be sure demand will be met.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby SDC » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 17:35:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')We need 20,000 1GW reactors to replace all fossil fuels, we will get the capacity. It will be easier if we do it now rather than later.


Yeah, cuz you'll need one hell of a lot of petroleum to build 20,000 reactors.


I'm no cornucopian, and I certainly don't think that we have a chance in hell of getting twenty-thousand reactors up before TSHTF, but the idea that you NEED fossil fuels for large construction projects is a bit narrow-minded. You could run all of those cranes, dump trucks, etc... off of electricity from other nuclear power plants or renewables.

But, as I said, the free market isn't some magical pancea for all of society's ills. Long before the average person realizes there is a need for alternative energy, they won't be able to afford it.


EDIT: Actually, if you had enough spare power, you could desalinate enough seawater and filter it into clean water to give everyone enough to drink. So Dezakin is partly right about the water. Unfortunately, we probably won't have acess to energy on those volumes.
I might be wrong.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Dezakin » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 20:02:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deserkin', 'G')rowth can continue until we peak total avaliable resources, and where the disagreement comes from is what our total avaliable resources are. 1 trillion tons of uranium goes a long way.
Long before 'peak total available resources' occurs we will have peaked specific necessary resources. Copper perhaps? arable land?

These are derivitives of energy and capital.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese stupid blase brushoffs add nothing to the discussion. You don't really believe this nonsence? These are happy-faced techtopian soundbites. Shale oil? Even the EIA does not include this as a reserves.

Its certainly a carbon resource thats exploitable with nuclear process heat.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter petroleum peak at 5-8%/year decline there will be no excess economic slack to start a new electric infrastructure and also maintain the current one. Declining petroluem will be accounted for to maintain the energy-intensive system. Thus the message of the Hirsch report: we must start now to avoid peak problems 20 years out. Anyone who really believes we have that much time before peak is just not doing their homework.

I find that unlikely, given how small the percentage of the global economy is that is devoted to energy production. It would be better to start now, and would avoid unnecissary economic hardship further on down the line.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')0,000 nuclear plants? There hasn't been one built in the US since 1973. You want to build one/week now? Still takes 400 years

You're confused. Diablo canyon came online in 1984. Many other reactors have been built worldwide since. We can build hundreds at a time if we have to. One a day if you like.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby NEOPO » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 20:29:00

500 billion $ later we have Iraq and afghanistan yay.

We could also build sustainably and reverse decades of unsustainable practices and not need 20,000 nuclear reactors.....should we even break down how unsustainable nuclear reactors really are or shall we assume fuel is the only limitation here?

Seems TPTB have their own plan and do not like either of our solutions.

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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 20:53:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '
')Why is that so hard to understand?


Very few people have those skills anymore.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby dinopello » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 20:59:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '
')Why is that so hard to understand?


Very few people have those skills anymore.


Very few. But some. There are some guilds out there with skills (mostly arts and jewlery but also woodworking, shoe making, masonry etc)

http://www.pacrafts.com/587895218113742 ... efault.asp

Not enough though. If I had the money I would start a guild of craftsmen.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 21:22:26

You're the man, pstarr!

I'd love to hire you to do bronze castings of some of my sculptures, but I can only pay in chickens...
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 21:43:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '-')think of the millions of commuters who drive back and forth to useless jobs.


Be careful with that line of thinking, eventually you will come up with the idea of "useless eaters".
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Dezakin » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 22:03:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') am leaving for my bronze casting class right now :) already took blacksmithing and welding.

You can make good money at Ft Mac as a welder.

Though I suppose it would be a bit ironic for you to pursue such a career.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 23:31:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Draco', ' ')the Bush admin has manipulated oil for the fall elections ...


Oh?

So, how did they force holders of oil futures to sell their holdings?

If you think any admin can manipulate the commodites market, then you think farmers can set the price of corn.

Get a grip.

Prices are down because the effects of Katrina are mostly gone, we had no bad hurricance season this year, Isarel and Lebanon have backed off, and the speculators have taken profits.

Not to mention, the end of the summer driving season.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed 11 Oct 2006, 09:17:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 23:39:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I') expect we'll be able to provide for 15 billion, sure.


You cannot support that claim and you know it.

Lurkers...Here is where this guy's head is at:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I')t means that I feel that its preferable to wipe out all wildlife on earth and construct a vast banal civilization of glass and steel (with whatever actually is biologically necissary to support humanity, crops) in the quest for growth than to stagnate, where it seems many others are rather horrified at the concept of such a world without natural places, if they get beyond believing such an artificial world is impossible.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby Last_Laff » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 23:49:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Lurkers...Here is where this guy's head is at:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I')t means that I feel that its preferable to wipe out all wildlife on earth and construct a vast banal civilization of glass and steel (with whatever actually is biologically necissary to support humanity, crops) in the quest for growth than to stagnate, where it seems many others are rather horrified at the concept of such a world without natural places, if they get beyond believing such an artificial world is impossible.

*GASP*
That's bad! Bad way of thinking! I could hear small animals looking for a place to live!

Always thinking the growth is based on money, isn't he?
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 10 Oct 2006, 23:52:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'B')ut where will you find any claims that growth can continue forever in an infinite environment. Stop perpetuating strawman claims.


Right here. Growth can continue forever in an infinite environment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause it can all be done with nuclear energy inputs, and because after oil peaks, alternative energies will be the best game in town untill you oversupply the market.


So, you claim that energy trumps Liebig's Law?

As long as you have nuclear energy you won't ever have a least abundant resource necessary for per capita survival?

We can just synthesize it from raw materials and if any one of them becomes in short supply and brings on the Law of the Minimum, we will just synthesize it from those more abundant?

Don't we live in a finite world?

How can you synthesize something from nothing?

Google Liebig's Law lurkers, or read my thread on it.

Liebig's Law & Overshoot; Why There Will Be a Die-off.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 00:05:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')I agree. That's why I'm asking "what will people do for a living?" I'd like to see some other people address this when they say we can "mitigate peak oil by doing away with all the useless industries." What do they propose to replace them?


I answered that in my original post Ludi. "Useless" jobs will be replaced by numerous essential services. Services that are obsolete or not economically viable now, but will be when TSHTF.



So, how does replacing useless jobs with essential jobs use less energy? You cut these jobs because you don't the energy to employ them. Energy doesn't care what it gets used for.

Even the most wanton of waste and uselessness drives GDP and employs millions.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 00:10:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')This says man is better than, more deserving, and superior to other life forms, including those that take care of him. The biological systems that make dirt soil, gases atmosphere, and water clean are not important.


Yup. That's what he thinks:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'T')he importance of ecology and environment is entirely an opinion. We don't need large predators, jungles, wildlife preserves, swamps or any of the other contrived ecological means to service humanity.

We've been creating our own ecologies for some time, and eventually we'll abandon such clumbsy mechanisms as biology.
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Re: 1st post! Question to Peakville!

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Wed 11 Oct 2006, 00:28:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')This says man is better than, more deserving, and superior to other life forms, including those that take care of him. The biological systems that make dirt soil, gases atmosphere, and water clean are not important.


Yup. That's what he thinks:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'T')he importance of ecology and environment is entirely an opinion. We don't need large predators, jungles, wildlife preserves, swamps or any of the other contrived ecological means to service humanity.

We've been creating our own ecologies for some time, and eventually we'll abandon such clumbsy mechanisms as biology.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Judge Doom', 'Y')ou lack vision, but I see a place where people get on and off the freeway. On and off, off and on all day, all night. Soon, where Toon Town once stood will be a string of gas stations, inexpensive motels, restaurants that serve rapidly prepared food. Tire salons, automobile dealerships and wonderful, wonderful billboards reaching as far as the eye can see. My God, it'll be beautiful.


I think Dezakin would agree.
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