[Draco]

Since clearly there isn't ample and reliable reporting of accurate oil reserves(Specially from OPEC) and the Bush admin has manipulated oil for the fall elections while still lining the pockets of his campaign contributors, along with the Sands/Shales which are operational on a smaller scale and the clean oil tech being developed...


Maybe this isn't going to be TEOTWAWKI after all?

[gnm]

OK Perhaps there won't... but ponder this.

1. growth can't continue.
(If you don't believe 1. then watch the Dr. Albert Bartlett video)

2. Our economy, industry, banking and investment systems are based on growth.

3. Observed declines in production and reserves discoveries strongly indicate that it is not possible to even maintainin current consumption levels for 10 years.

4. Given (3). then we can only resolve our delimma by massive conservation combined with taking advantage of every available alternative. That includes nuclear, biofuel, CTL, wind, etc... Such efforts MIGHT mitigate (3.) But would preclude (2.)

So what do you think the outcome of the not too distant future will be?

a. A voluntary sweeping social and economic change to a sustainable future by slow powerdown, conservation and alternatives programs.

b. War. war and more war as various world powers fight over whats left to maintain thier currently unsustainable societies.

c. Progressive and relentless collapse of infrastructure and economies combined with a ever declining standard of living.

d. both b and c

Keep in mind that if some states or groups take option a. then its very likely that those choosing option b. will simply take what they have. Attempting to feed (both men and machines) a sufficent defensive military to prevent that is unlikely to be compatible with a. since they will be in a negative growth economy.

Anyways thats my synopsis... And its worth exactly what you paid...

-G

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'O')K Perhaps there won't... but ponder this.

1. growth can't continue.
(If you don't believe 1. then watch the Dr. Albert Bartlett video)

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'O')K Perhaps there won't... but ponder this.

1. growth can't continue.
(If you don't believe 1. then watch the Dr. Albert Bartlett video)

[Last_Laff]

Thats pretty much the other side of the fence keeps saying.

[Niagara]

Welcome Draco. Nice first post, you raise an interesting question.

The very long-term picture seems inescapable. The earth's current population is not sustainable without petroleum. Therefore a population collapse seems inevitable.

The nearer-term transition period is debatable. I don't believe our civilization will just 'roll over and die'. I think many of us underestimate the power of revolutionary change. We tend to assume oil demand is inelastic.

I think oil depletion can be successfully mitigated for a long time, in fact there will even be some positives; like a cleaner environment and numerous economic opportunities.

For instance:

-consider gasoline demand. Simply reducing the speed limit back to 55 mph would save billions of gallons ConocoPhillips Link

-think of the millions of commuters who drive back and forth to useless jobs.
ABC Corp makes widgets. But how many employees commute to ABC? The Systems Administrator to maintain the network. So the Exchange Administrator can provide email. So the Business Analyst can fire an email to the Systems Analyst (rather than get of his arse and walk over). Who in turn consults the DBA who works with the Team Leads, Web Developers and Testers.... on it goes. None of these people are involved in the task at hand, making widgets.

-the advertising industry can go. I don't need network television commercials to tell me I need to buy Colgate toothpaste. My mommy taught me to brush my teeth. When I need toothpaste I know where to find it.

-don't think a cataclysmic paradigm shift is impossible. In one decade computers and the I.T. industry revolutionized business. Oil depletion will force drastic changes in the way we work.

-consider real estate agents, investment bankers, lawyers, mutual fund salespeople, stock brokers, etc. What do they contribute towards our basic needs of food clothing and shelter? All of them will hang up their hats and stop burning gasoline to and from the office.

-just as the great Warehouse on Wheels (Walmart) destroyed Main Street America, we will see a revitalization of local tradespeople and community markets post peak.
How many homes today have sewing machines in them? Who needs to sew curtains when I can go to Walmart and buy petroleum (PVC) miniblinds for $20/window. We will need seamstresses, tailors, cobblers, carpenters, cabinet makers, glaziers, furniture builders, locksmiths and you name it. Currently we live in a throwaway society. Don't fix it, replace at Home Depot/Walmart

-forget the 2000 mile Caesar Salads. There will be a huge need for locally grown produce, creating enormous opportunites.


Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of those corny-copians. Peakoil spells the end of our society as we know it. But at the same time a balanced view is needed. Peakoil will surely have some silver lining to it.

Just my $0.022 (CAD)

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'O')K Perhaps there won't... but ponder this.

1. growth can't continue.
(If you don't believe 1. then watch the Dr. Albert Bartlett video)

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'O')K Perhaps there won't... but ponder this.

1. growth can't continue.
(If you don't believe 1. then watch the Dr. Albert Bartlett video)

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'O')bserved declines in production are often at flat pricing, where its just cheaper to pump somewhere else than to spend money on infrastructure for enhanced recovery.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '-')think of the millions of commuters who drive back and forth to useless jobs.

[NeoPeasant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '-')think of the millions of commuters who drive back and forth to useless jobs.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'W')ell we're going to have to come up with a better plan than running a giant waste machine aka the economy full blast so that the maximum number of people can collect a paycheck. That strategy is going to start failing in a big way.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'O')K Perhaps there won't... but ponder this.

1. growth can't continue.
(If you don't believe 1. then watch the Dr. Albert Bartlett video)

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')I agree. That's why I'm asking "what will people do for a living?" I'd like to see some other people address this when they say we can "mitigate peak oil by doing away with all the useless industries." What do they propose to replace them?

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'O')bserved declines in production are often at flat pricing, where its just cheaper to pump somewhere else than to spend money on infrastructure for enhanced recovery.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')We need 20,000 1GW reactors to replace all fossil fuels, we will get the capacity. It will be easier if we do it now rather than later.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'O')K Perhaps there won't... but ponder this.

1. growth can't continue.
(If you don't believe 1. then watch the Dr. Albert Bartlett video)

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')We need 20,000 1GW reactors to replace all fossil fuels, we will get the capacity. It will be easier if we do it now rather than later.

[Niagara]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'W')ell we're going to have to come up with a better plan than running a giant waste machine aka the economy full blast so that the maximum number of people can collect a paycheck. That strategy is going to start failing in a big way.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'O')bserved declines in production are often at flat pricing, where its just cheaper to pump somewhere else than to spend money on infrastructure for enhanced recovery.