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peakoildebunked retires

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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Aaron » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 18:49:40

Once upon a time you couldn't find a PO debunker around here...

Times change...

We don't always know why, but it's not hard to spot an agenda...

The best thing about posters like Lorenzo et al, is the severe ripping our members give his posts... which just serves to educate the lurkers more effectively IMO.

I love it when "agenda driven" posters make silly claims...
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Dezakin » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 18:49:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'D')ezakin - I don't expect you to look through all Lorenzo posts to discover this, but Lorenzo appears to putting forth the exact position of an interest group.

So what's wrong with that? I guess nothing except it may hide an ulterior interest to disrupt PO.com.

Thats awfully paranoid. Looking at his posts, they seem far too disconected and devoid of a central theme to be advocating a particular interest group. Too many different things that will 'save us' and not enough focus on whatever lobby as the only solution.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the fission thing, care to explain why its not commercially viable at this point if it were so easy to do?

Coal is the same price in many places and even cheaper near the mine, and for some reason has avoided political controversy that nuclear. That will change when the price of coal and natural spikes because of increased demand from coal liquefaction plants.

France provides the vast majority of its power from nuclear today, due largely to a dearth of coal. In the US, several commercial reactors are being planned now. In Alberta, several oil companies (TotalFinaElf springs to mind) are lobbying the provincial government for licences for nuclear plants for process heat for oil extraction. They can see whats going to happen to natural gas in the region.


Listen, I tried to be nice and all I got is unnecessary insults from you twice.

Huh? What are you talking about?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Read this for example of what Lorenzo says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll I said was that the Americans were lucky for being separated from the rest of the world by two oceans, and that of all major countries involved in the World War, they suffered least because they didn't really intervene with any force. And yes, I personally think they came too late in Europe. They weren't here in 1939, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943 and 1944.

http://www.peakoil.com/post364690.html#364690

That snipet implies he is a shill for a lobby? I dont think you're making sense here.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m not sure what your answer above has to do with fusion, but at this point please don't bother responding any more. Thanks.

Why are you playing the victim here? You specifically said fusion or "fusion or something else will provide more energy" and that clearly is fission. I'm attacking you? You aren't making sense now.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 02 Oct 2006, 21:11:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'A') few people have been banned from here lately, and I believe they were the most firm believers in podebunked. I am trying not to generalize too much, but those true podebunked believers were the most disruptive.


No one, in my two year tenure at PO.com, has been banned for their views, only their conduct in violation of the COC.

It so happens that the majority of the people who violate the COC and make claims of moderator bias and get banned, are from the POdebunked camp.

Denial can be a shrill cry.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 01:04:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')We don't always know why, but it's not hard to spot an agenda...

... which just serves to educate the lurkers more effectively IMO.

I love it when "agenda driven" posters make silly claims...

You know how you firmly believe your position and opposing positions seem ridiculous and to be agenda driven? Well that’s how that majority of people in this world feel when they read arguments that go so strongly against the grain. That's probably how most lurkers feel when they read some of the extemist alarmist posts on these boards.

Die off inevitability, the collapse of civilization, the need to cut trillions of dollars of economic activity in order to save the planet… Do you honestly think that most people read this sky is falling stuff and fail to see the agenda?
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 03:13:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he best thing about posters like Lorenzo et al, is the severe ripping our members give his posts... which just serves to educate the lurkers more effectively IMO.


If anything, it just makes certain members appear as close-minded zealots unable to keep an open-mind of the possibility(however small or large) that their worldview may in fact be incorrect.

Of course, Lorenzo is not without his faults.


Forgive me if my post lacks coherence at the moment, as I am inebriated.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Doly » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 04:09:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', '
')If anything, it just makes certain members appear as close-minded zealots unable to keep an open-mind of the possibility(however small or large) that their worldview may in fact be incorrect.


That isn't necessarily bad. Lurkers need to be able to tell who are the intelligent, open minded people as opposed to the radical fanatics.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 05:37:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')mnitr are you really as young as your avatar? you seem to be.

No, we aren’t as young as Mr Frodo appeared when we assimilated him. Youth is irrelevant. All the hobbits will yet be assimilated. The Shire will be added to our perfection. Resistance is futile.

***
Of course, someone who thinks that anyone disagreeing with their perspective must have an agenda (or maybe even be a paid spook!) but fails to see that this is how they themselves appear to others, is far more naive then the perception of naivety in youth.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 08:47:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')We don't always know why, but it's not hard to spot an agenda...

... which just serves to educate the lurkers more effectively IMO.

I love it when "agenda driven" posters make silly claims...

You know how you firmly believe your position and opposing positions seem ridiculous and to be agenda driven? Well that’s how that majority of people in this world feel when they read arguments that go so strongly against the grain. That's probably how most lurkers feel when they read some of the extemist alarmist posts on these boards.

Die off inevitability, the collapse of civilization, the need to cut trillions of dollars of economic activity in order to save the planet… Do you honestly think that most people read this sky is falling stuff and fail to see the agenda?


Do I think most belive this stuff? No, not at all. Most people are very slow to accept change due to personal, cultural, and national limitations.

The media also exerts tremendous influence over what people think in every country.

I had a prior carreer on Wall Street. In 2000, there were actually many voices on Wall Street that said the internet stock bubble would lead to great investment losses. Those views were called minority or fringe views, and were frequently scourned "as the sky is falling" lunies in the popular media. Those silly lunies turned out to be absolutely correct.

Even though I personally tried to tell many to adjust their investments, and preserve their money, common opinion prevailed and I was ignored.

The point? As far as Peak Oil goes, most people won't believe it until well after it has occurred - and maybe not even then.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Liamj » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 09:54:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '.'). I also believe that if you engage in a war, you must fight to win. Bush is a bit soft on that score. ..
So are you, obviously, or have you already done time killing gooks oops enemy combatants for your emperor?

Why are <i>all</i> neocons chickenhawks?

And why are so many Republican office-holders paedophiles?
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 10:17:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', 'W')hy are <i>all</i> neocons chickenhawks?

Assertion not in evidence. Some neocons are chickenhawks, some are not. Some Democrats are chickenhawks, some are not. The use of the term "chickenhawk" however, is simple ad hominem, and encourages me to believe that the one so labeled is more likely right than not, since their attacker chooses to insult them, rather than in rubutting their arguments and policies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd why are so many Republican office-holders paedophiles?


Assertion not in evidence. The most recent, famous, paedophile happens to be Republican; but having sexual contact or leud discussions with underage pages is hardly a Republican-only crime. If we'd just start shooting them, perhaps we'd whittle down their numbers a bit.

Edit: spelling
Last edited by rwwff on Tue 03 Oct 2006, 10:51:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby dinopello » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 10:48:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') had a prior carreer on Wall Street. In 2000, there were actually many voices on Wall Street that said the internet stock bubble would lead to great investment losses. Those views were called minority or fringe views, and were frequently scourned "as the sky is falling" lunies in the popular media. Those silly lunies turned out to be absolutely correct.


They ALWAYS turn out to be correct, the only question is of timing. The last throes (if you will) of a bubble are often the most dynamic and had you stayed in for most of it, and got out just in time you would have made the most money. It is risky, true - too risky for me. Peak Oil I don't see as a bubble.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he point? As far as Peak Oil goes, most people won't believe it until well after it has occurred - and maybe not even then.


I agree!
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 11:14:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')I had a prior carreer on Wall Street. In 2000, there were actually many voices on Wall Street that said the internet stock bubble would lead to great investment losses. Those views were called minority or fringe views, and were frequently scourned "as the sky is falling" lunies in the popular media. Those silly lunies turned out to be absolutely correct.

Even though I personally tried to tell many to adjust their investments, and preserve their money, common opinion prevailed and I was ignored.


The Dotcom crash could serve as a prudent metaphor for the PO movement. Prior to the crash there was the camp that saw it coming, while the majority rejected arguments that the party is almost over. Some in this sky is falling crowd took their predictions a bit too far, warning of a collapse so severe that the technology sector may take decades to recover. Even though these predictions where of a small minority of those predicting a stock crash, their voices were perhaps the loudest. Most investors would dismiss any notion of an end to the internet bubble (those that heard the message that is) simply because they associated the over the top sky is falling loonies with any suggestion of a downturn in the sector – regardless of actual market indicators suggesting the party could indeed be coming to an end.

And so many investors suffered considerable losses, largely because they turned away from prudent advice, perhaps because of the over the top alarmist warnings (but then, perhaps it was simply greed…). And yet here we are a little over half a decade later, and indeed the over the top warnings were way off mark. Sure the boom and bust cycle that some predicted played out like clockwork, but the crash was indeed strictly a capital markets phenomenon. There was no crash evident in the actual B2C and B2B revenue data (that is, the activity the stocks were based on). The actual revenues in the B2B sector grew smoothly from $56 billion in 1999 to $486 billion in 2002 and has now passed $1 trillion. And obviously there is no evidence of boom and bust cycles in the actual price-performance of these technologies (Moore’s Law steadily continues).

So while the majority of those that warned of a stock crash were rational, a small minority (soon to grow once the bubble had clearly burst) warned of industry wide ramifications. Some even went as far as claiming the Dotcom crash would result in the collapse of Moore’s Law (!). It could be argued that these same warnings are at least partially responsible for so many investors loosing out in the crash. If the warnings had just been more rational, maybe Wall Street may be taken the warnings more seriously and been more prepared?

This analogy, though perhaps flawed, should be obvious as to it’s relationship with PO. It’s the over the top alarmist view points, warning that the sky is falling and we are all doomed, that causes the majority of people out there to bunk PO into the loony bin. Admittedly some people seem to need to be shocked into awareness, but IMO far more people simply turn off to an important message simply because it looks like so many of the other ridiculous doomsday stuff out there.

And just like the Dotcom crash, perhaps the truth is the outcome of PO won’t be as devastating in the long term as many warn?
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 11:31:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')And just like the Dotcom crash, perhaps the truth is the outcome of PO won’t be as devastating in the long term as many warn?


Of course the dotcom bubble, is a bubble and not entirely comparable to PO. However the downside of the dotcom bubble affected very many people, many went from millioniares to bankruptcy. Whole groups of people at Enron, Worldcom, Global Crossing, etc. saw their life savings, jobs, and retirement plans disappear.

While the figures are skecthy, there is great evidence that many, if not majority, of US retirement plan investors are just recovering from the adverse effects of the dotcom bubble collapse. MrBill on another thread today does a great job of describing how the Fed reacts to problems like this and the new problems that the Fed will cause in the future:
http://peakoil.com/fortopic24107.html

Only with PO, the effects will be much greater than anything the post World War II US has ever seen.
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Re: peakoildebunked retires

Unread postby NEOPO » Tue 03 Oct 2006, 14:44:39

Ya ever mean what you said but wished you hadnt said it anyways? ;-)

One of my bad days yet I am glad KAM got some attention thank you.
The ban canon was pointed at me once upon a time and I dont wish to be banned so I dislike even "going there".
Sometimes I am compelled beyond my ability to stop myself.

Well at least we know rwwff is to the right of the neocons.....heh

I do understand your point Aaron and I feel you are correct.
One day I will learn to be as cool as hawkman ;-)

Dante - they see the many victories while we see only the attack.

Yes I wasnt here when there were no debunkers.
I have not experienced someone posting an article or whatever and 10 people agree in turn.
I guess that might be a bit boring and less then stimulating for those who are trying to learn.
JD was the resident lunatic when I joined last year.
I think we need to adapt and learn to really manipulate these people.
My next book will be a treatise on the fine art of debate....
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