[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', '
')
Is it possible they discovered the prospect in '04, but just recently completed the testing phase on the area, thus requiring a new press release?

[PeakOiler]

I just reviewed the ASPO May Newsletter and looked at the table on page two with regard to the "Deepwater" oil extraction rate (dwer) in the table just below the main graph.

ASPO has the 2005 dwer as 3.6 mbpd, and projects the dwer to reach 12 mbpd in 2010.
According to the AP press release on AOLNews, the test well in the GOM was producing 6,000 bpd.

So how many of these GOM-size "discoveries" will be needed to attain that rate of 12 mbpd if this well's rate is 6,000 bpd? About 1,400 more wells? Where are the other fields?

It does not appear to me that this "big" discovery is going to do it.

ASPO may be too optimistic?

Edit was to correct math statement.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ctually, that's wrong. One defines 'cheap' as a relative term. In a recession or depression, prices must fall from a good bit to a hell of a lot to stay in the same range of effect on the consumers' wallets. If your income drops 50%, then you would need oil to drop 50% in the same amount of time for the oil to still retain its "cheapness". But as it peaks, even in a depression, the price would still go up, thus losing its cheapness.

[eric_b]

Crikey! 28,175 feet down. That's close to the cruising altitude of a passenger jet - except down. Well over five miles, through ocean and rock.

This really should highlight to everyone how precious oil is, if we are willing to go through these lengths (ha hahaha) to get it. And profitable too.

There's no energy source like it. It's dense and liquid, easily shipped and transported. And before being refined it's relatively stable, unlike nat. gas or (gasp) hydrogen. Literally it's a matter of drilling a hole in the ground, and in many reservoirs (at least initially) the stuff is under pressure and flows right out.

I mean, if there was ANY other energy source that was even CLOSE we'd be using it now, rather than drilling through miles of rock to get oil. Biofuel?! Don't make me laugh. It's never going to be a major player.

I'm happy they found this oil. Not because it changes the PO picture even slightly, but because it will hopefully buy ME more time before the bottom drops out. Our descendants will still be picking up the pieces one way or another.

[Micki]

Well read again Gideon.
I said
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak refers to maximum extraction rate.

[PeakOilPrincess]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChicknLittle', 'T')he cynical progressive in me guesses that this "news" was re-released in advance of the November elections to help the mood of the Voters. Don't worry, Be Happy, Vote Republican.

[Heineken]

From what I've heard, at the very best this discovery might add 1 mb/day for a couple of years, starting in 7-10 years. And it will be very, very expensive oil to lift.

In 7-10 years the increase in the demand for oil will have rendered the net impact of this discovery neglible.

The media are making some hay out of this story, but really it's a non-story.

We'd need several discoveries like this every year to even begin to alter the PO scenario.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOilPrincess', 'O')h well....maybe there is enough oil left to make the cosmetics I like.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak Oil is not the end of oil just the end of cheap oil.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')m seeing that this is not neccesarily the news we might think it is. How much of this is factored in to current estimates and depletion/peak models?

Is this just the hype I think it is? Or is it really a new large discovery? I am particularly interested in the estimates, 3-15 billion barrels seems like a huge uncertainty to me.

Anyone in the know have some rational answers?

Thanks.

[RonMN]

Is it real?: yes

Is it hype?: yes

Will it propell oil production beyond 85 MPD?: no

Remember...PO is not oil in the ground...it's a "speed"...is there a maximum a man can run? yes. Is there a maximum oil can be pumped out of the earth...yes

[BigBear]

[b]Yes it is hype--for these reasons--1) Depth of the find 2) Distance from shore 3) Number of wells needed 4) Cost 5) Hurricanes 6) Present Techical know-how is all new 7) A find such as this does nothing to change Peak Oil--this project is 10 yrs away.

[Denny]

QWell, realtive to our world consumotion its not staggering. No quantum leadp.

If it worked out to 10 billion barrels proved that would equate to 117 days of use, or just under 4 months of current world oil consumption. So, if it takes ten years to get it going and it lasts fifteen years, relative to TODAY's consumption that would be 2% of world oil supply for those 15 years.

One big uncertainty is just how much oil consumption this will require in terms of the steel and associated materials production to build the platforms and pipelines, the transport of all the goods for the construction, the high ongoing pumping energy, and don't forget all the years of helicoptering people and goods to and from the platforms.

All said, its still a great find. We need so many more just to keep up with the depletion, let alone consider the enlarged demand from India and China.

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ChicknLittle', 'T')he cynical progressive in me guesses that this "news" was re-released in advance of the November elections to help the mood of the Voters. Don't worry, Be Happy, Vote Republican.

[frankthetank]

I hope they call this one "Dinglehorse" after its cousin "Blunderhorse" Its going to sit out there like a big dingleberry ready to be picked by the next Katrina that comes along

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pablo2079', 'd')ouble plus good

[NTBKtrader]

BP's massive Thunderhorse platform in the Gulf of Mexico has been plagued with problems, pushing its startup until 2007, a delay of more than 2 years. ...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/14/news/economy/bp_fix/

[MonteQuest]

At 20,000 feet below the 7000' bottom, it is past the 15,000' oil window. Will most likely be mostly NG.

[gg3]

If it turns out to be mostly NG, then are the following effects likely?

a) The price of NG would rise more slowly than the price of oil.

b) Therefore no or less relief for high gasoline prices, and

c) Some relief from the prospect of increasing NG prices, therefore good news for the operators of gas-fired generating plants, and potentially good news for electricity users.

The combination of b and c lead to potentially increased demand for electric vehicles, which is a good thing.

However c also takes pressure off the urgency for building nuclear and wind power, and the incentive for homeowners to install solar, which is a not-good thing.

--or--

d) It makes little difference because both oil and NG can be converted to "generic energy commodity value," and a change in the market conditions for one causes changes in market conditions for the other.

[fluffy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')t 20,000 feet below the 7000' bottom, it is past the 15,000' oil window. Will most likely be mostly NG.