by ClubOfRomeII » Mon 21 Aug 2006, 11:20:13
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Peak oil is about the cost to access energy.
Peak oil is about the end of cheap, readily available energy.
I thought Peak oil was about the peak of worldwide crude oil production?
A single peaking form of energy hardly guarentee's that all energy will peak at the same time as crude production does. Well, I should say I sure haven't seen anyone try and relate the two in quite that X=Y way.
Seems like there is an equivalent in energy between a given nuke plant or coal fired electrical generation plant and a given amount of crude, and if electrical generation is built faster than crude oil declines, there is no peak in energy. Kinda like the WWII arguement of building liberty ships faster than the Nazi's could sink them. The Uboats can't cause peak liberty ships because they are created quicker than they are destroyed.
I might agree that the era of cheap oil is over with, but that gets into an economic arguement and economics will involve all the other things revolving around the world at the same time, so while I agree its reasonable to ASSUME that cheap CRUDE is a thing of the past, it is by no means a foregone conclusion, particularly at this point when people are screaming bloody murder about Peak and we haven't even gotten to a high crude oil price yet, even if we are at Peak.
I'm back on page 15 in this thread. Haven't seen anyone trying to quantify Jevons, but I have seen a very valid point, which is why use jevons when the rebound effect appears to cover the issue better and is more modern. Interesting conversation.