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THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby omgwtfbyobbq » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 00:56:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'B')ut only for a while. The decrease came at the industrial level. In fact, auto fuel use never decreased; it increased. Google the data. And as you see from the chart I posted, that didn't last long.


But this is about US crude consumption, which has never increased, only decreased since 1971 because supply has only decreased since 1971.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ']')Overall net consumption cannot increase, but consumption of what you gain by efficiency gains will increase as you lower the price by increasing available supply.


But Jevon never stated anything about relative consumption, Just consumption. And the rapid, almost exponential increase in consumption until peak.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')f efficiency gains don't offset decline, then they are useless to solve peakoil, and if they do offset decline and increase the supply, then the lower price will increase the consumption up to the available limit or people's ability to acquire it.


Eh, there are other sources that can provide much more energy than the ones we use for transportation currently. But you may not agree... so until PO really sets in, and we see what happens, it's a tomatoe tomato deal.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')his is a game for you, isn't it? I asked what your point was in saying this. It's gibberish.


I told you, explicitly at first, and on a broad view later in the post.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')o, if you put something on sale, people won't buy more of it?


I never disagreed with this, which I've stated before. If I initially put some fuel on sale, then it is before the peak in supply and consumption, so of course Jevon's Paradox applies. After peak it does not.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 01:06:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'B')ut only for a while. The decrease came at the industrial level. In fact, auto fuel use never decreased; it increased. Google the data. And as you see from the chart I posted, that didn't last long.


But this is about US crude consumption, which has never increased, only decreased since 1971 because supply has only decreased since 1971.


You forget Prudhoe Bay and imports?

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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 01:08:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ')If I initially put some fuel on sale, then it is before the peak in supply and consumption, so of course Jevon's Paradox applies. After peak it does not.


So, efficiency gains won't increase supply?
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 01:12:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'E')h, there are other sources that can provide much more energy than the ones we use for transportation currently. But you may not agree... so until PO really sets in, and we see what happens, it's a tomatoe tomato deal.



None that can be scaled up in time.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby omgwtfbyobbq » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 01:17:20

Whoops, I meant continental US crude. My mistake, correct as you see fit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')one that can be scaled up in time.


Really? I was going to address it myself in my garage, but I suppose that's a thread in and of itself. Another dollar another day.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')o, efficiency gains won't increase supply?


Jevon's Paradox isn't about supply, it's about consumption. What does this have to do with Jevon's Paradox?
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 01:33:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')o, efficiency gains won't increase supply?


Jevon's Paradox isn't about supply, it's about consumption. What does this have to do with Jevon's Paradox?


The rest of us here know.

Can you figure it out?

I'll give you a hint: peak oil is about supply.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby omgwtfbyobbq » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 02:13:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')'ll give you a hint: peak oil is about supply.


But Jevon's Paradox isn't. Hint away! :)
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 02:23:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')'ll give you a hint: peak oil is about supply.


But Jevon's Paradox isn't. Hint away! :)


Answer the question:

So, efficiency gains won't increase supply?
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby omgwtfbyobbq » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 02:28:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nswer the question:

So, efficiency gains won't increase supply?


What does this have to do with Jevon's Paradox? Efficiency gains may, or may not, increase supply.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 02:41:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ') Efficiency gains may, or may not, increase supply.


If they don't increase supply, then what good are they as a solution to peak oil?

And if they do increase supply, then supply/demand economics will lower the price, increasing consumption up to the efficiency gains.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby TWilliam » Wed 09 Aug 2006, 19:27:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'Y')ou make baby Jeezus cry.


Yawn...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Consumption is not availability.


No. It is, however, a function of availability. Which is the point of Jevons' observation: increase availability, consumption will likewise increase. "Put it on sale, people will buy more", as Monte says.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..we cannot increase consumption if there is less of a resource to consume.


Precisely the point of the caveat:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '.')..until physical limits prevent further expansion.


-----------------

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gw', 'A')re you saying that no sustainable societies ever existed? Hahahaha.

"Aboriginal society withstood and proved its sustainability over tens of thousands of years of dramatic events, until the Europeans’ arrival in 1788."

I am saying nothing of the sort. What I indicated is that the history of civilization is the history of increasing efficiency with a concomitant increase in consumption. Agriculture represents an increase in efficiency vs. hunting/gathering; more calories (energy) obtained per calories expended. Mechanization of agriculture (water, wind & eventually steam) is a further increase in efficiency. Wood to coal to oil still further. Each of these increases in efficiency has resulted in an overall increase in consumption (of energy); Jevons' observation is historically accurate.

As far as the sustainability of the Aborigines: they are not, in the technical sense, a civilization; their anecdotal example does not apply. Their culture has remained sustainable precisely because they have never developed (or at least have never applied) any efficiency gains in their methods of obtaining sustenance; they remain hunter/gatherers. Therefore their overall rate of resource consumption does not increase, apart from minor fluctuations as populations change.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby ClubOfRomeII » Mon 14 Aug 2006, 15:43:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', ' ') Efficiency gains may, or may not, increase supply.


If they don't increase supply, then what good are they as a solution to peak oil?



It allows extra time to mitigate, assuming efficiency gains are bigger than consumption increases.

Jevons paradox as I understand it involves a steady supply with increasing efficiencies leading to more consumption.

Peak oil is not a "steady supply" scenario.

And England didn't collapse for lack of coal 140 years ago because of increasing consumption, I think that was the original conclusion from Jevons hypothesis. He was wrong because he didn't take into account, or was forced to discount either because he couldn't see it or didn't have the information, other economic and supply issues. Such as fuel substitution and other available coal supplies, for starters.

Similar to, say, using the grid to run pluggable hybrids, biofuels, or a hydrogen economy. And the grid is fired by nukes. Or coal. Or whatever you've got which isn't crude.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 14 Aug 2006, 19:52:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ')It allows extra time to mitigate, assuming efficiency gains are bigger than consumption increases.


If, you start the mitigation 10 to 20 years before the peak and ration or tax to prevent increased consumption.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')evons paradox as I understand it involves a steady supply with increasing efficiencies leading to more consumption. Peak oil is not a "steady supply" scenario..


No, it does not as has been explained ad naseum.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd England didn't collapse for lack of coal 140 years ago because of increasing consumption, I think that was the original conclusion from Jevons hypothesis. He was wrong because he didn't take into account, or was forced to discount either because he couldn't see it or didn't have the information, other economic and supply issues. Such as fuel substitution and other available coal supplies, for starters.


And this has absolutely nothing to do with his paradox. That was another issue altogether, as has been explained ad naseum.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby ClubOfRomeII » Mon 14 Aug 2006, 20:05:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
No, it does not as has been explained ad naseum.



Monte, could you please point me to a particular page in this discussion? I read through the first 3 and didn't see anything on point at all about the scenario under which Jevons was operating, and I couldn't get the search function to work inside a particular forum, dunno if it can even do that, but I sure couldn't figure out how.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 14 Aug 2006, 20:10:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
No, it does not as has been explained ad naseum.



Monte, could you please point me to a particular page in this discussion? I read through the first 3 and didn't see anything on point at all about the scenario under which Jevons was operating, and I couldn't get the search function to work inside a particular forum, dunno if it can even do that, but I sure couldn't figure out how.


Look for the words, "relative to what it would have been."

It isn't about a scenario. It's the relative effect.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby ClubOfRomeII » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 00:12:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Look for the words, "relative to what it would have been."

It isn't about a scenario. It's the relative effect.


Okay, I did it, and still the entire thread is referenced rather than zooming in to find a single page. So instead of getting my info second hand, I went and rounded up Jevons work, made it through about the 8th paragraph and discovered this....

Jevons, Chapter 1, Paragraph 3, "The Coal Question"

"Coal in truth stands not beside but entirely above all other commodities. It is the material energy of the country—the universal aid—the factor in everything we do. With coal almost any feat is possible or easy; without it we are thrown back into the laborious poverty of early times."

OH...MY....GOD.

The universal aid! Thrown back into the poverty of early times!!

I swear to God I've read this same thing about oil on Kuntsler or Savinars site somewhere. Like they nearly plagarized it. I figured all the hoopla over Peak was a recent invention...here's this guy sweating out the same thing nearly 150 years ago!

The guy is tough reading though.
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 01:13:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ')Okay, I did it, and still the entire thread is referenced rather than zooming in to find a single page. So instead of getting my info second hand, I went and rounded up Jevons work, made it through about the 8th paragraph and discovered this....


Still has nothing to do with Jevon's Paradox.

And unless we find something better than oil, his observation will hold true.

What will be the new oil?
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 01:21:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ')Jevons paradox as I understand it involves a steady supply with increasing efficiencies leading to more consumption.


Ok, here's one:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'W')hen the price goes down, you increase consumption, relative to what it might have been....even in a declining supply scenario.


Of course, unless you can't gain more supply with efficiency gains to offset the decline. Then the paradox ends....and so does efficiency gains being an answer to peak oil. :roll:
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby tsakach » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 03:40:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'M')onte, could you please point me to a particular page in this discussion? I read through the first 3 and didn't see anything on point at all about the scenario under which Jevons was operating

I find it difficult as well to go through page after page in multiple threads to find information on Jevons Paradox. After researching the subject, I found a good example of a real-world scenario where Jevons Paradox has been recently encountered. The British government has attributed Jevons Paradox as the reason why efforts to reduce greenhouse gases through increased energy efficiency did not result in the expected reduction in energy demand. Jevons Paradox is the original name for the phenominum; more recent versions have been defined called the Khazzoom-Brookes postulate or "backfire" in the Rebound effect:

UK Parliament: The economics of energy efficiency

There is a major study underway by the UKERC to measure the macroeconomic rebound effect of energy efficiency:

UKERC: The Evidence for a Rebound Effect from Improved Energy Efficiency
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Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Unread postby Aaron » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 06:20:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Coal in truth stands not beside but entirely above all other commodities. It is the material energy of the country—the universal aid—the factor in everything we do. With coal almost any feat is possible or easy; without it we are thrown back into the laborious poverty of early times."


Here's an interesting exercise...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Oil in truth stands not beside but entirely above all other commodities. It is the material energy of the country—the universal aid—the factor in everything we do. With Oil almost any feat is possible or easy; without it we are thrown back into the laborious poverty of early times."
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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