Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 09:06:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', ' ') After researching the subject, I found a good example of a real-world scenario where Jevons Paradox has been recently encountered.


Already posted on page 17 of this thread with the same link.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 09:09:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', ' ')I find it difficult as well to go through page after page in multiple threads to find information on Jevons Paradox.


Then google Jevon's Paradox or The Coal Question by William Stanley Jevon.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby ClubOfRomeII » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 10:15:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ')Okay, I did it, and still the entire thread is referenced rather than zooming in to find a single page. So instead of getting my info second hand, I went and rounded up Jevons work, made it through about the 8th paragraph and discovered this....


Still has nothing to do with Jevon's Paradox.

And unless we find something better than oil, his observation will hold true.

What will be the new oil?


Jevons work leading to the Paradox and the implications within it have nothing to do with Jevons paradox? While an interesting concept, I might wonder if he would disagree with you.

"With cheap and abundant electricity, all other things are possible."

Replacing oil is easy, transitioning appears to be the difficulty, if difficulty there is to be.
User avatar
ClubOfRomeII
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu 20 Jul 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby Aaron » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 12:15:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')eplacing oil is easy


What are you talking about?

No it isn't.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

Hazel Henderson
User avatar
Aaron
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 5998
Joined: Thu 15 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Houston
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 15 Aug 2006, 18:46:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'J')evons work leading to the Paradox and the implications within it have nothing to do with Jevons paradox?


Never said or implied that. But what you are posting has nothing to do with Jevon's Paradox. Jevon's Paradox is the observation that increases in efficiency lead to greater consumption of that resource. Period.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')With cheap and abundant electricity, all other things are possible."


Like I said, nothing to do with Jevon's Paradox.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')eplacing oil is easy, transitioning appears to be the difficulty, if difficulty there is to be.


With statements like that, your grasp of peak oil and it's implications seems highly suspect. :)
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby ClubOfRomeII » Wed 16 Aug 2006, 09:50:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')eplacing oil is easy


What are you talking about?

No it isn't.


It depends on what people consider "easy" I would suppose. My thinking on replacing oil has mostly to do with replacing a single, easily synthesized transport fuel. Now, do you have the money and infrastructure and everything else to make it society wide, that strikes me as a different question.
User avatar
ClubOfRomeII
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu 20 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby ClubOfRomeII » Wed 16 Aug 2006, 10:06:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'J')evons work leading to the Paradox and the implications within it have nothing to do with Jevons paradox?


Never said or implied that. But what you are posting has nothing to do with Jevon's Paradox. Jevon's Paradox is the observation that increases in efficiency lead to greater consumption of that resource. Period.



This site just rocks. After reading your and Aarons response yesterday, I ran off and checked out all sorts of neato economics papers to see what I was missing.

And here is what I discovered. The modern name for Jevons Paradox is the rebound effect. I believe a previous poster mentioned it while providing an interesting link.

Anyway, my reading of everything around this site had me believing that Jevons Paradox was considered to be the be all and end all to conservation and efficiency. You gave me this impression yourself monte over in another thread where someone asked about supply and demand and to paraphrase, you basically responded to his question with "Jevons Paradox takes out conversation and efficiency" or something to that effect. Correct me if I'm wrong of course, I don't want to put words in peoples mouths.

It turns out that Jevons Paradox in its modern form of the rebound effect can be quantified, and when I discovered american automobiles as a classic example, I read some of that paper, and they quantifed the effect at something along the lines of 10-30% rebound. They had some other examples as well, one of them running as high as 90% but I forget what that example was.

So, for a 10% efficiency or conservation success, the rebound effect reclaimed 10-30% of the savings.

Now call me crazy, but it appears that Jevons Paradox doesn't simply wipe out all conservation and efficiency increases, it simply reclaims a portion of the savings. It has the POTENTIAL to wipe out all savings, which is the path Jevons ran down. But in its modern form, it has been shown that this is an extreme example.

So is this wrong? Is there a reason people reach back to Jevons for the Paradox rather than dealing with its more modern equivalent?

It would seem reasonable to quantify the size of the effect as well, it isn't enough for someone to say "efficiency and conservation" and for the answer to be "Jevons paradox" unless it can be shown that the rebound effect is operating at a 100% reclamation rate. Which is Jevons assumption, but I can't point to a piece inside the Coal Question yet which says it implicitly.
User avatar
ClubOfRomeII
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu 20 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Aug 2006, 22:27:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ') Is there a reason people reach back to Jevons for the Paradox rather than dealing with its more modern equivalent?


Asked answered already in this thread. Covered both Rebound Effect and the UK postulate.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Aug 2006, 22:30:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ') My thinking on replacing oil has mostly to do with replacing a single, easily synthesized transport fuel.


Transport fuel?

What about all this stuff?

Image
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby ClubOfRomeII » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 11:32:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ') My thinking on replacing oil has mostly to do with replacing a single, easily synthesized transport fuel.


Transport fuel?

What about all this stuff?


do not quote images-MQ
Stuff which can be made with synthetic crude from tar sands. Or synthetic crude from coal. Or natural gas. Or methane hydrates. Or cooked out of oil shale insitu.

You've never seen the supply breakdown on what crude gets used for in this country before?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/ ... _graph.gif

Its all about transportation, not trinkets.

Meanwhile, I'm going to start back through this thread and try and find how Jevons paradox gets quantified related to crude, assuming it does of course.
User avatar
ClubOfRomeII
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu 20 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby Aaron » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 13:40:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tuff which can be made with synthetic crude from tar sands. Or synthetic crude from coal. Or natural gas. Or methane hydrates. Or cooked out of oil shale insitu.


lol

No... he meant the energy required to produce, manufacture & transport all that junk... not the plastics alone.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

Hazel Henderson
User avatar
Aaron
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 5998
Joined: Thu 15 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Houston
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby ClubOfRomeII » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 19:13:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tuff which can be made with synthetic crude from tar sands. Or synthetic crude from coal. Or natural gas. Or methane hydrates. Or cooked out of oil shale insitu.


lol

No... he meant the energy required to produce, manufacture & transport all that junk... not the plastics alone.


Well, the production and manufacture might require 5 MBO/D, if the EIA has its numbers correct, but I also found the exact number for plastics feedstock, fertilizers, synthetic engine oil, on their webpage, its only like 1.5 MBO/D. The electricity involved isn't much of a crude issue, its mostly nukes and coal, maybe some NG?

The transporting it probably doesn't require a large percentage of the total transport fuel, last I looked diesel for the entire country was perhaps only 20% of the oil for transport total?

So we still have the 800 pound gorilla of just silly soccer moms running around and people thinking 90 mile commutes are good ideas, thats all a transport problem, and much larger in crude consumption size then making plastic trinkets.

I'm back on page 17 or so, this angels on the head of a pin thing is pretty neat, but I still haven't found someone saying how big the total rebound effect is in transportation.
User avatar
ClubOfRomeII
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu 20 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 21:24:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ')I'm back on page 17 or so, this angels on the head of a pin thing is pretty neat, but I still haven't found someone saying how big the total rebound effect is in transportation.


I have posted two charts which show the increased in use as mileage increased.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 17 Aug 2006, 21:27:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'I')ts all about transportation, not trinkets.



Houses are full of trinkets? Take a closer look. This "stuff" is everything in your house.

It's all about the cost to access energy.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby ClubOfRomeII » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 00:03:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', ' ')I'm back on page 17 or so, this angels on the head of a pin thing is pretty neat, but I still haven't found someone saying how big the total rebound effect is in transportation.


I have posted two charts which show the increased in use as mileage increased.


Yeah, I found them, I'm trying to backtrack through the entire conversation, and I saw the charts. I might work myself back to present to make sure I knew what was going on.
User avatar
ClubOfRomeII
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu 20 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby ClubOfRomeII » Fri 18 Aug 2006, 00:06:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'I')ts all about transportation, not trinkets.



Houses are full of trinkets? Take a closer look. This "stuff" is everything in your house.

It's all about the cost to access energy.


I'm not sure what you mean by this. I don't mind everything in my house needing crude as a feedstock, and long as the entire countries consumption of that feedstock isn't all that much of the total consumed. And it isn't.

The part I don't get is your reference to "cost to access energy". Whats that got to do with total crude consumption to make the stuff, and move it to WalMart so people can buy it?
User avatar
ClubOfRomeII
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu 20 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 20 Aug 2006, 23:38:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', 'T')he part I don't get is your reference to "cost to access energy". Whats that got to do with total crude consumption to make the stuff, and move it to WalMart so people can buy it?


Peak oil is about the cost to access energy.

Peak oil is about the end of cheap, readily available energy.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby ClubOfRomeII » Mon 21 Aug 2006, 11:20:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Peak oil is about the cost to access energy.

Peak oil is about the end of cheap, readily available energy.


I thought Peak oil was about the peak of worldwide crude oil production?

A single peaking form of energy hardly guarentee's that all energy will peak at the same time as crude production does. Well, I should say I sure haven't seen anyone try and relate the two in quite that X=Y way.

Seems like there is an equivalent in energy between a given nuke plant or coal fired electrical generation plant and a given amount of crude, and if electrical generation is built faster than crude oil declines, there is no peak in energy. Kinda like the WWII arguement of building liberty ships faster than the Nazi's could sink them. The Uboats can't cause peak liberty ships because they are created quicker than they are destroyed.

I might agree that the era of cheap oil is over with, but that gets into an economic arguement and economics will involve all the other things revolving around the world at the same time, so while I agree its reasonable to ASSUME that cheap CRUDE is a thing of the past, it is by no means a foregone conclusion, particularly at this point when people are screaming bloody murder about Peak and we haven't even gotten to a high crude oil price yet, even if we are at Peak.

I'm back on page 15 in this thread. Haven't seen anyone trying to quantify Jevons, but I have seen a very valid point, which is why use jevons when the rebound effect appears to cover the issue better and is more modern. Interesting conversation.
User avatar
ClubOfRomeII
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 357
Joined: Thu 20 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 21 Aug 2006, 18:20:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ClubOfRomeII', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Peak oil is about the cost to access energy.

Peak oil is about the end of cheap, readily available energy.


I thought Peak oil was about the peak of worldwide crude oil production?


It is. But the immediate ramifications are about the cost to access energy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') single peaking form of energy hardly guarentee's that all energy will peak at the same time as crude production does. Well, I should say I sure haven't seen anyone try and relate the two in quite that X=Y way.


We don't have a single peaking. NG will follow oil in 10 years. If we go CTL, coal with follow in 29 years.

Since the world revolves around oil, it's peaking will create enormous economic ramifications. It means the end of cheap energy of any kind. Nothing can replace oil in price, density, EROEI, portability, or scalability.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')eems like there is an equivalent in energy between a given nuke plant or coal fired electrical generation plant and a given amount of crude, and if electrical generation is built faster than crude oil declines, there is no peak in energy.


Like I said before, I don't think you quite grasp the issue as yet. It is the end of cheap, readily available, high energy density, very portable, highly scalable energy. The world cannot run on electricity, it needs cheap liquid fuels.

And even if we could switch over, it will not be as cheap as oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') might agree that the era of cheap oil is over with, but that gets into an economic arguement and economics will involve all the other things revolving around the world at the same time, so while I agree its reasonable to ASSUME that cheap CRUDE is a thing of the past, it is by no means a foregone conclusion, particularly at this point when people are screaming bloody murder about Peak and we haven't even gotten to a high crude oil price yet, even if we are at Peak.

Peak oil is an economic argument. Few still seem to fail to grasp this.

No one I know even expects to see $60/barrel oil.

Cheap crude oil is a thing of the past. Period.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Jevons Paradox - Death by conservation

Postby gg3 » Mon 21 Aug 2006, 21:20:45

Necessary ramification: And therefore, any PO-driven component of the great 21st Century Dieoff will be essentially economic in nature.

Keep in mind that in famines past, people did not die because there was not enough FOOD. They died because there was not enough MONEY to PAY FOR the food.

People will not die from lack of energy, they will die from lack of money with which to pay for the things that are produced with the energy.

What's interesting is, this is an entirely arbitrary crisis of our own making. Engineers can solve this in their sleep. The only technology we need that we don't yet have is a male contraceptive pill that causes the sperm count to drop to infertility level for six months on a single dose.

But instead, humans stay in crisis mode for no good reason. It is as if a bunch of people are playing a card game where the rule is, for every time you turn up a card of denomination X, you lose two pints of blood. There they sit at the card table, playing, and bleeding, and dying, and no one even thinks of the possibility of getting up and walking away or changing the rules or doing anything else differently. They're addicted to the game, like the drunken monkeys in the Buddhist parables about addiction to illusion (maya).
User avatar
gg3
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3271
Joined: Mon 24 May 2004, 03:00:00
Location: California, USA

PreviousNext

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron