by pup55 » Wed 16 Aug 2006, 17:59:47
I know I will not get much agreement on the board for either Ford or GM...
But I kind of feel sorry for them, in a way.
Up until a year ago, their focus groups, particularly in the hillbilly states, were telling them that people still wanted SUV's, which they did a good job of producing.
Wagoner was on CSPAN the other day, saying something to the efffect that he is the nation's largest buyer of private health insurance, and is now paying pensions for 1 million people over 65 years old. I believe the statistic is still true that the pension/health insurance cost per vehicle right now is higher than that of steel for the legacy US producers. For GM, some of the recent press releases suggest the cost of $5.5-6 billion per year. That's enough, every year, to build a nice new auto assembly plant somewhere. I understand that GM is the world's largest purchaser of Viagra, which is fitting.
Their competitors, Toyota and Hyundai have been building modern, efficient, highly automated non-union plants, with the help of generous government subsidies (at the state and local level). They can do this because the normal rules of capital investment are different for Japanese and Koreans than they are for the US, since they take a longer-term view of this type of investment decision, plus Japanese interest rates are still at or near zero.
Anyway, what will happen: At some point, both of these companies will declare bankruptcy, and pull the plug on these millions of retirees and spouses, both medical insurance and pensions will go bye-bye. There will be an unprecedented uprising, in which the elderly will be seen taking into the streets in wheelchairs, etc. to protest this. These are the same people that did all of the strikes in the early 60's, complete with the national guard, etc. so you know they have it in them. The US government will, indeed, step in to bail out the pension plans and the medical for this crew.
They will shut all of their union plants. They will open new, automated plants in whatever little community, in a traditional non-union type state, that gives them the biggest incentive to relocate. I am thinking Alabama at the moment.
They will build the same models that they produce in Europe, which at least in the case of GM, are actually fun, attractive, energy efficient cars, plus develop some new ones.
At some point, after the restructuring, a Chinese or Japanese auto manufacturer with deep enough pockets will attempt a buyout of one or the other or both. Reason: to get the dealer network.
And, that will be that. The execs and engineers and administrative assistants in Detroit will get jobs at Subway or someplace, and the profits will be made in China. This will go on until we can no longer afford even to buy Toyotas in this country. One thing may save us, though. The Chinese still do not make cruise missiles like we do.