by marko » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 12:28:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')ll remaining resources will be marshalled, appropriated, and commandeered by the authoritarian/totalitarian government to keep the cities functioning at some sort of basic subsistence level, simply because that's where all the people are.
Basic services (water, sewage, power, food distribution, police) will be maintained at some sort of level right up until the full-on Mad Max scenario kicks in, and then nothing will matter anyway. Then we all die, so who cares?
I agree that we are most likely headed for authoritarian/totalitarian government, in the US at least, but I disagree that such a government is likely to invest resources in supporting the bulk of the urban/suburban population.
Power, in the US, has become increasingly centralized in the hands of the ultrarich (net worth >$100 million). The government is and will be their servant. The pervasive rhetoric of "personal responsibility" in the US media is meant to legitimize the abandonment by the ultrarich of any responsibility toward the people whose work produced their wealth or for those people's families. Already, under Clinton in 1990s, "welfare reform" was merely the centerpiece of a move to shift the poor from state support to reliance on the crumbs of the market economy.
The minute someone is not contributing to the investment earnings of the ultrarich (typically by being exploited at work), they are expendable. When the economy contracts in a post-peak depression, millions will simply be left to starve, particularly in the cities, where food will just be too expensive for the jobless.
I suspect that many able-bodied young men will be hired as police to police work sites that are still profitable and/or that contribute to the war machine. Police will probably also secure elite residential districts and will provide heavily armed escorts for members of the elite en route between secure zones.
The most able-bodied young people, and a few older ones with necessary technical skills will have jobs and be able to afford homes or rented apartments in districts with some degree of security.
However, I predict that large parts of most urban areas, including middle-class neighborhoods of office workers and much of the suburban belt, will become lawless areas of crime and starvation.
Without cheap oil, the economy simply cannot both maintain the elite in the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed and provide employment and livelihood for the masses of redundant office workers, much less feed the old, sick, and infirm. Those who are redundant will be allowed to die off, amid rhetoric on the elite-controlled media victimizing the dying as leaches who brought their fate upon themselves by not making themselves more employable.