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Back to the city

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Back to the city

Postby Waterthrush » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 07:43:27

It appears while many Peak Oilers are plotting their escape to rural America, the "infill" back to the city may be the larger movement. Today's "Week in Review" section of the New York Times has a short article on the growing fight between developers who want to build high-rises in previously built-up, but lower-density, urban areas, with the poor bearing the brunt of the redevelopment. In part, the reason is because of the cost of commuting. Parking, the big bugaboo, as usual is the focus of complaints.

I am so biased in favor of open space that I believe these problems can be overcome (at least until the post-peak problems accelerate). There are many models for mixing subsidized housing with market-value housing (which was the original idea behind "urban development." And the advantages of offering mass transit and pedestrian travel seem to me very important.

But, I freely acknowledge I wouldn't want to live in one Not a city girl.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby green_achers » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 16:04:12

On the one hand, a good argument can be made that if there is going to be a future for civilization and culture, it is going to have to be an urban one. Maybe it's possible to have the Manor be the center of economic and cultural life, as in the Middle Ages, or some model of the Jeffersonian plantation, but it seems that humans have always formed themselves into cities, and that's where advancements are made. Cities are also much more effieient in terms of transportation and sharing of resources. There isn't one person I know on the "back to the land" side who doesn't drive a truck.

OTOH, the plantation-sized unit is very stable and self-sufficient for hard times. I guess it depends on how optimistic one is.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Ludi » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 16:18:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('green_achers', ' ')it seems that humans have always formed themselves into cities


Oh hogwash. The MINORITY of human cultures have built cities, and only during the past 10,000+ years.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby emersonbiggins » Sun 06 Aug 2006, 22:32:01

Rescinding urban segregated zoning laws would render arguments about infill rather moot. Rezone neighborhoods from R-1 to MU/HU and let the market adjust accordingly, no "eminent domain" or "redevelopment" discussions needed. Neighborhoods containing nothing but single-family dwellings are the real aberration of civilization, a situation rendered workable only with cheap and copious amounts of energy.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Back to the city

Postby Zardoz » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 00:10:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('green_achers', ' ')it seems that humans have always formed themselves into cities


Oh hogwash. The MINORITY of human cultures have built cities, and only during the past 10,000+ years.

Well, yeah, because it's only been since then that they could.

Questions for those who think that going back to the country, in some sort of remote self-sufficient idyll, will be the only way to go, post-Peak:

How will you handle the constant threat of raids by roving bands? How much ammunition do you plan to stock up on? How many gun battles do you think you'll win before you finally lose one?
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Dreamtwister » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 00:33:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'H')ow will you handle the constant threat of raids by roving bands?


That really depends a lot on:

a) How far away you are from major population centres
b) How accessible your retreat is

I was out scouting for property this week and I saw something amazing. There was this little house, completely off-grid, nestled in a valley between 2 fairly high hills. The owner had a small garden, but there was definitely room for expansion. The nearest population centre was roughly 20 minutes away by car, and the only access road was a 2km long driveway that connected with a county road. If he were to cut down the address marker at the end of the driveway and let the entrance overgrow, the roving masses would NEVER find this place.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'H')ow much ammunition do you plan to stock up on? How many gun battles do you think you'll win before you finally lose one?


That's the real question, isn't it? But the same question holds for city dwellers, only moreso, just because there are more roving bands. The roving bands aren't the real issue, though. The advantage here is that isolated homesteads are less likely to recieve visitations by storm troopers. *That* is the real danger.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Back to the city

Postby jupiters_release » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 01:08:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '.') If he were to cut down the address marker at the end of the driveway and let the entrance overgrow, the roving masses would NEVER find this place.

So you survive with one other person of the opposite sex, you have children together, ok all good for the next generation(if you don't get buried in a glacier of course) but then what? Isolation isn't sustainable and is it really worth living?
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Dreamtwister » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 01:38:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', 'S')o you survive with one other person of the opposite sex, you have children together, ok all good for the next generation(if you don't get buried in a glacier of course) but then what? Isolation isn't sustainable and is it really worth living?


Who said the land was intended for only 2 people and thier potential offspring?

The level of isolation I mentioned before is perfectly viable. As I stated, the nearest population centre is 20 minutes away by car. That's about a day's travel on horseback But I didn't specify how large that population centre was. People existed on a similar level throughout most of recorded history for generations at a time.

Notice I specifically omitted several details including (but not limited to):

-The size of the neighboring population centre
-The size of the property in question and it's immediate neighbors
-The number of people currenty residing on the property and it's primary use
-The property's distance from any *major* population centres
-All but the vaguest descriptions of the property

As for being "worth living"...well I guess that really depends on how addicted you are to modern society's comforts. Personally, I hate them. As far as I'm concerned, the last truly important invention was the windmill. Everything else is pointless comfort.

I'm not sure what your point is about the glacier though. Care to elaborate?
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Zardoz » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 02:25:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '.')..the roving masses would NEVER find this place...

The smoke from your fireplace chimney will guide them right to you.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby rwwff » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 02:53:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')solation

Few rural areas in America are truly isolated, rather they are collections of 20-1000 acre chunks, some conglomerated, some leased, some corporate, some family, some retirement/hobby Just because one might be a half mile from your neighbor's house, doesn't mean that you don't go to church together, or fail to attend the same picnics, fairs, and county meetings; and don't you dare miss the revivals!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'A')s for being "worth living"...well I guess that really depends on how addicted you are to modern society's comforts. Personally, I hate them. As far as I'm concerned, the last truly important invention was the windmill. Everything else is pointless comfort.

The way I look at it, modern civilization has defined the economy in such a way that if I were to go live and work only on the farm, and raise enough food to feed 50 people; the government would soon come take my land, throw me out on the street, and auction the property off to the highest bidder; unless of course, I'm independently wealthy and can pay the property tax and insurance from a self-sustaining endowment.

As far as I'm concerned, that is sick beyond belief. But it is the world we all live in here; and so the game is played.

So is such a life after a crash worth living; absolutely. Every breath is worth fighting for, every sip of water, every piece of bread, every late night kiss from your wife, every straw doll made by your daughter; its worth everything and anything.
abundance fleeting
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Doly » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 06:00:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'A')s far as I'm concerned, the last truly important invention was the windmill. Everything else is pointless comfort.


Including things like syringes and antibiotics?
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Re: Back to the city

Postby seldom_seen » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 06:03:26

This trend is entirely expected and will once again revert to a flee from the city when basic services become sporadic or unavailable.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby gg3 » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 06:58:17

EmersonBiggins is right on target: no more R-1, rezone everything to mixed use.

Better yet: Another proposal that has been gaining favor is called "impact-based zoning." It does away with IS and replaces it with DOES.

It's irrelevant what a property or building is. State of the verb TO BE is none of the government's business, and none of anyone else's damn business either.

What's relevant is what a property or building does. State of the verb TO DO is anyone's business who is affected by the doing.

As long as I don't cause a stinkypoo with my neighbors in such a manner that prevents them using their property as they choose, no one can stop me using my property as I choose. Cities can enact "impact" ordinances specifying unacceptable impacts: noise, cars on the street, bright lights, bad smells, nasty chemicals escaping a property, types and quantities of waste produced, etc.

So then, if I want to open up an industrial machine shop in my "single-family" house, fine, I go right ahead, just as long as the neighbors can't see it, hear it, or smell it, and as long as the people working there get in via carpool so there is only one more vehicle (a minivan or whatever the carpool uses) parked in my driveway but not on the street.

---

Re. security issues in rural areas:

First principle is, be on friendly terms with local law enforcement, and do your part in the community e.g. neighborhood watch etc. Do not get in trouble even for "small things" such as driving over the posted speed limit.

Second, good intel prevents risks turning into threats.

Third, participation in the local economy is your most accessible source of intel.

Fourth, good trade relations also provide bonds between neighbors. A healthy free market gives everyone a stake in preserving peace and order.

Fifth, you can't go it alone. The larger community (neighbors and nearby towns) have to be on-side, all in agreement on generalities and specifics. If you have the respect of the community-at-large, then they will listen when times get nasty and you suggest organizing a common defense. Gaining respect and positive reputation takes time and effort. You need to start from the day you move in, and start by doing things that are relatively inconspicuous, purely uncontroversial, and demonstrate good character.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby MrBill » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 09:11:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('green_achers', ' ')it seems that humans have always formed themselves into cities


Oh hogwash. The MINORITY of human cultures have built cities, and only during the past 10,000+ years.


That makes me laugh. Here we are talking about sustainable development post peak oil, which we have been using along with the invention of the internal combustion engine has only been around for less than 150 years, and we are comparing this peak oil period to a period before recorded history?

Cities began to form as soon as an sustainable agricultural surplus was produced and it became more productive to stay put and farm rather than hunt & gather. Cities also facilitated trade.

No, seriously. What were population demands on the earth back 10.000+ years ago? Less than 300.000 humans? Less than a million? As compared to the abundance of natural resources? And today? How many Americans could support themselves from hunting and fishing if everyone had to compete for the same fish & game?

Post peak oil urban centers will be concentrated around sources of stationary power as well as along major waterways and near rail. Outside of those urban areas, smaller, farming communities will exist to take advantage of land under cultivation. It is not an either or equation. Both will depend on the trade-off between the cost of energy and the cost of travel in terms of resources needed to accomodate either.

People will choose to live close to a city with public transport, while vast, unsettled tracts of land are not likely to remain vacant so long as people need to grow food.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Dreamtwister » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 10:04:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '.')..the roving masses would NEVER find this place...
The smoke from your fireplace chimney will guide them right to you.

That's why I visit this board. You raise a good point. Now that you've brought this risk to my attention, let me try to diffuse it.

The amount of smoke a fire makes depends on how much oxygen is available, how hot the fire is, how well seasoned the wood is and whether you have just started the fire or whether it is established.

Tips on reducing smoke from your fire:
-Prior to winter clean your flue
-Burn only dry, seasoned, untreated wood
-Get a hot fire going quickly with plenty of paper and small kindling
-Keep the air controls set high enough to keep your fire burning brightly
-Never overload your wood heater by placing too much wood in the fire
-Never leave your wood heater to smoulder overnight. Doing this starves the fire of oxygen
-Go outside and check the chimney occasionally for smoke emissions

Following these guidelines will make your fire much harder to detect. The one thing it won't do is reduce the smell, but the smell of smoke on the air is a lot harder to triangulate, especially from a distance, than a line of smoke.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I')ncluding things like syringes and antibiotics?

Especially things like syringes and antibiotics. Unrestrained reproduction + easily attained antibiotics = overpopulation, pure and simple.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Back to the city

Postby Zardoz » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 11:49:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'T')his trend is entirely expected and will once again revert to a flee from the city when basic services become sporadic or unavailable.


Flee to where? What will people do to keep from starving quickly when they flee?

All remaining resources will be marshalled, appropriated, and commandeered by the authoritarian/totalitarian government to keep the cities functioning at some sort of basic subsistence level, simply because that's where all the people are.

Basic services (water, sewage, power, food distribution, police) will be maintained at some sort of level right up until the full-on Mad Max scenario kicks in, and then nothing will matter anyway. Then we all die, so who cares?
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Re: Back to the city

Postby marko » Mon 07 Aug 2006, 12:28:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')ll remaining resources will be marshalled, appropriated, and commandeered by the authoritarian/totalitarian government to keep the cities functioning at some sort of basic subsistence level, simply because that's where all the people are.

Basic services (water, sewage, power, food distribution, police) will be maintained at some sort of level right up until the full-on Mad Max scenario kicks in, and then nothing will matter anyway. Then we all die, so who cares?


I agree that we are most likely headed for authoritarian/totalitarian government, in the US at least, but I disagree that such a government is likely to invest resources in supporting the bulk of the urban/suburban population.

Power, in the US, has become increasingly centralized in the hands of the ultrarich (net worth >$100 million). The government is and will be their servant. The pervasive rhetoric of "personal responsibility" in the US media is meant to legitimize the abandonment by the ultrarich of any responsibility toward the people whose work produced their wealth or for those people's families. Already, under Clinton in 1990s, "welfare reform" was merely the centerpiece of a move to shift the poor from state support to reliance on the crumbs of the market economy.

The minute someone is not contributing to the investment earnings of the ultrarich (typically by being exploited at work), they are expendable. When the economy contracts in a post-peak depression, millions will simply be left to starve, particularly in the cities, where food will just be too expensive for the jobless.

I suspect that many able-bodied young men will be hired as police to police work sites that are still profitable and/or that contribute to the war machine. Police will probably also secure elite residential districts and will provide heavily armed escorts for members of the elite en route between secure zones.

The most able-bodied young people, and a few older ones with necessary technical skills will have jobs and be able to afford homes or rented apartments in districts with some degree of security.

However, I predict that large parts of most urban areas, including middle-class neighborhoods of office workers and much of the suburban belt, will become lawless areas of crime and starvation.

Without cheap oil, the economy simply cannot both maintain the elite in the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed and provide employment and livelihood for the masses of redundant office workers, much less feed the old, sick, and infirm. Those who are redundant will be allowed to die off, amid rhetoric on the elite-controlled media victimizing the dying as leaches who brought their fate upon themselves by not making themselves more employable.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby MountainHiker » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 00:30:04

The authoritarian government requires a lot of energy and resources to maintain. I believe that will make it a phase that we will pass through. There are a alot of factors that will determine how long it will last, one of which includes how much monkeywrenching it can withstand from the few remaining patriots.

My guess is the influence of the government's minions will be felt much less in sparsely populated areas with little stratgic advantage. Why would they waste the resources? Of course, eking out a living in these places is difficult too.

One thing I have read from the hardcore survivalists is to live at least one tank of gas from a major population center. That doesn't leave much to consider these days!

My guess is towns with populations from 5,000 - 30,000 should fare ok as long as they aren't propped up with heavy irrigation, distant water sources, a poor hinterland, etc...

One thing I often notice is the Western idea of "settling in" to where you're going to live. Maybe a more nomadic lifestyle will once again become the norm. Naturally that won't work at current population levels and with the way things are done in our private property culture, but that may change at one point.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby TommyJefferson » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 12:31:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'F')lee to where? What will people do to keep from starving quickly when they flee?


They won't be fleeing to anywhere. How would they with no gasoline? They will starve in place.

In societal emergencies, the people have far more power than the government. There will be no "authoritarian government". That requires electricity, gasoline, and tax revenues.

Take a look at Hurricane Katrina to get a glimpse of what sudden societal breakdown looks like.

When electricity goes out, no one can pump gasoline. That includes police cars. They can't respond to 911 calls. Ambulances stop running. I know. It happened in my town after a hurricane.

The result is, the people are on their own. Neighors form militas for mutual protection.

Imagine 24 million people in Southern California suddenly without running water or electricity to pump gasoline into trucks for resupply of grocery stores.

Stuck in the middle of that, you are dead, dead, dead. The interstates are clogged with stalled cars. You drank all the water in your bathtub. Gangmembers and Criminals who ignored the anti-gun laws and thus DO have guns are running the show.

Yes, FEMA will chopper some MRE's into the local football stadium, but good luck travelling there or surviving there. In a true national emergency, even that won't be happening. The National Guard will be occupied elsewhere.

As others have said, megacities like Houston, LA, Atlanta, Boston, et al. are death traps if anything goes wrong.
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Re: Back to the city

Postby marko » Tue 08 Aug 2006, 16:37:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'T')hey won't be fleeing to anywhere. How would they with no gasoline? They will starve in place.

I agree with your assessment, although I believe the government is planning to take control before TSHTF so they will be able to maintain power.


Same here. I think that TPTB are completely aware of what is coming and are planning for it. Tommy J's example of New Orleans after Katrina is an apt one. But I interpret it differently. The elite of New Orleans were well warned and well prepared and left in advance of the storm to live in comfort in Jackson, MS, or wherever. The military bases remained well supplied. However, the surplus population of New Orleans, from the point of view of the elite, were left to drown or starve, until public outrage forced the government to offer some belated assistance.

The media are still allowed to cover the plight of poor people. I think that kind of coverage will be banned in the future. And the elite still have to pretend to care about public opinion, lest people realize that the game is over and stop consuming and generating profit.

When the game can go on no longer, I think that the elite won't care about public opinion any more, and the iron fist will emerge. This is what will be different after the peak. Yes, the government will be forced to make do with reduced resources. It will use those reduced resources to ensure the well-being of the elite and the survival of enough people to maintain the living standards of the elite. Everyone else, at least in major population centers where people are unable to grow food, will be left to starve or shoot each other.
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