[jato]

I read at theoildrum that it will be back up inside of 12 hours.

[bart]

Energy Bulletin should be up in 12-24 hours.

Web technical gurus are temporarily out in the bush (Australia), and should be back to fix the problem soon.

Thanks for your concern!

Bart - EB co-editor

[Graeme]

Peaksters on the Potomac

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or five years the peak oil movement has been largely the province of internet conspiracy buffs, church basement conferences and esoteric debates among petroleum geologists and scientists about statistical data few can understand. Last month, however, oil “peaksters” seemed to break out of their policy doldrums when they journeyed to the banks of the Potomac for what may have been their first mainstream conference in the nation's capital.

Others compare oil peaksters to religious fundamentalists, both awaiting the apocalypse. Fundamentalists foresee the Biblical four horsemen, who will punish the wicked after true Christians ascend to join Jesus in the Great Rapture. Meanwhile, peaksters look to a cruel science of ecology that warns of a great die off at the hands of natural law. The peak oil cognoscenti will survive by building sustainable communities, like the castles of medieval times. Neither has happened, these critics note, though they admit each scenario provides endless grist for book publishers.

Finally, peaksters must broaden their appeal. Doom and gloom wins only so many converts and then becomes self limiting. So does chastising people for their ignorance and irrational behavior. After all, as John Maynard Keynes observed, in the long-run we are all dead. To broaden their influence, peaksters must focus on the opportunities and benefits in any solution to peak oil—new employment and economic enterprises, a healthier lifestyle, more neighborly communities, less environmental pollution, posterity for future generations. They must devise a message of hope and inclusion embodied in a clarion call for action in confronting the biggest challenge humanity has faced in its short history on Earth. Otherwise, we’re all about to go down shooting.

[PolestaR]

Like our main aim is to "win converts" ?

It's funny how there is so much to something someone says but you can take one sentence out of it to sum the whole thing up. Maybe we don't want converts?

[128shot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', 'L')ike our main aim is to "win converts" ?

It's funny how there is so much to something someone says but you can take one sentence out of it to sum the whole thing up. Maybe we don't want converts?

[grabby]

New employment and economic enterprises, a healthier lifestyle, more neighborly communities, less environmental pollution, Those are all good things to talk about, keep them busy.

But remember, If a person has cancer, I'm sure they want to know about it, the very best years are those when you appreciate them. Some don't want to knowof course.

But a point in history....

After World War II, the United States was determined to make sure the American people did not become terrified by the awesome power of the atomic bomb.

To make people feel comfortable with the awesome power of fission, the government started putting together some of the best propaganda films ever developed.

History of Nuclear Defense - Surviving Atomic Attack

The government had to do something in order to prevent a panic. That's why they developed these incredible Cold War era films to tell the populace what to do to feel safe and survive a nuclear attack!

Then you see this and you know it was all propaganda.

You can see some of the original footage of atomic blasts from the 1940s and 1950s.

I am sure they will pull something together better yet,
to make everyone feel good. That is the job of the government.

The usual way is to get a good innocent group of people that have no political support, that are ostracized and blame them, that makes everyone feel better.

[garyp]

Its a good article, similar in direction to the posting I made here on "Do you have an acceptable problem?" Didn't get very far then, and I suspect this won't find fertile ground here now.

Being positive, my suggestions for redefining the issues along positive and more appealing lines are:

• Stop jumping up and down on energy alternatives. Sure hydrogen has significant problems, but if you want to point them out then you need to point out potential directions to fix the problems as well. From my perspective, once you run round the list of potentials you end up with what are majorly scaling issues. Distributed approaches are best for dealing with those types of issues, so start talking how individuals and small groups can be self sufficient, with investment. It's a better, more acceptable story than powerdown.

• There are places where governments can make real inroads, and part of the right message is energising the electorate to demand the right types of behaviour. Those areas include incentives for 'do it yourself' solutions, regulation of business and commerce into more efficient and long term approaches (probably via tax), and massive R&D investment in energy technologies rather than the military complex. Such messages play to what governments are good at.

• Communities, neighbours and making better connections between groups. If you can have 'Neighbourhood Watch' for growing community solutions to crimes, you can have 'Community Energy' for addressing peak oil/climate change issues locally. Cheap, easy and positive, so why is nobody talking about such approaches?

In essence the story needs to move on. Most people who look at the issues understand that a finite resource eventually runs out. Their next question however is how they can protect themselves, their families and their lifestyles from the effects. That's where the attention of those in PO needs to be now. Not with die-offs, powerdowns, and permaculture - those are the boggymen that people will want to avoid by carrying out positive actions -

Positive actions that you need to create, with realism of what a solution looks like.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', 'M')aybe we don't want converts?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('garyp', 'C')ommunities, neighbours and making better connections between groups. If you can have 'Neighbourhood Watch' for growing community solutions to crimes, you can have 'Community Energy' for addressing peak oil/climate change issues locally. Cheap, easy and positive, so why is nobody talking about such approaches?

[lateralus]

Is that what I have become...a "peakster". God I'm sad and depressing. I need to get out of this Church basement.

That article was funny. It made it sound like the "peaksters" were going on a cattle drive to round up all the evangelicals for a doomsday meeting.

[Jack]

From the article:

(Notice the excerpt from the news announcement, followed by Jeffrey Brown's commentary)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Russia Overtakes Saudi Arabia as World’s Leading Oil Producer — OPEC
Created: 23.08.2006 11:24 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 13:39 MSK

Excerpt:

"According to OPEC, in June 2006 Russia extracted 9.236 million barrels of oil, which is 46,000 barrels more than Saudi Arabia. The statistics also showed that Russian production in the first half of this year increased to 235.8 million tons, a year-on-year improvement of 2.3 percent."

I assume that most media outlets that report the captioned story by the Moscow News would describe it as good news regarding Russian oil production. What the Moscow News is not reporting is that current Russian production is 2.8% below its December level. As I outlined in a recent article regarding net oil exports, "Net Oil Exports Revisited", I estimate that oil exports from the top 10 net oil exporters are probably now falling at a double digit annual rate. The captioned article provides additional evidence of the decline, since the June production number is below the May (EIA) production number for Russia.

I have a question for my friends in the mainstream media. Who among you is going to have the courage to step forward and "break" the story that the lifeblood of the world economy--net oil export capacity--is now declining?


Link to complete article here

This surely sounds like peak to me. Comments?

[Denny]

The smartest strategy for Saudi Arabia right now is not to produce at their maximum, but just enough to meet the price targets established by OPEC. It could be that is what we are seeing here.

Truly, if and when big oil comes on board the peak oil belief, they would logically "shut in" oil themselves, thinking that a barrel of oil in the ground has a higher net present value than a barrel extracted and sold on the market today. The math is pretty simple. Let's say you believe that oil will escalate at an average rate of 8% a year for the next ten years. (That would imply $150 per barrel oil ten years hence.) If your cost of capital is 6% you are better off keeping it in storage.

[Doly]

Peak oil is not any less peak oil if it happens for political, rather than geological, reasons. The results are the same.

[Graeme]

Hope this hasn't been posted elsewhere on this board because its a good article:

The Shape of Oil to Come

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his article is about the way in which oil production is going evolve. Will there be a sharp peak, or a long lasting plateau?

1. If the global decline rate of existing production of 4.5% continues, oil production is likely to plateau at a level of 90 million barrels per day around 2010 until the end of the next decade, after which a moderate to sharp decline sets in.

2. If the global decline rate of existing production of 4.5% slows down to 2%, thanks to the addition of 500 billion barrels due to reserve growth, production will likely increase with some bumps towards 95 million barrels per day at the end of the next decade, after which a slow to moderate decline sets in.

3. If the global decline rate of existing production of 4.5% increases to 8%, due to the effect that the end of the era of giant oil fields and declining deepwater production has, production will likely peak around 2010 at 88 million barrels per day, declining slightly to 80 million barrels per day at the end of the next decade, after which a sharp decline sets in.

As to what is the most likely scenario, I expect that the increase towards a higher decline rate, as shown in figure 8, is going to occur. The reasoning behind this is a combination of developments,

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')irol:
I can already tell you that in our "World Energy Outlook 2008" which will be published in November we will deal in depth with the prospects of the oil and gas production. We will take a look at the 350 most important oil and gas fields and explore how much production rates are sinking and what that means.

Schneider:
What do you mean by that?

Birol:
As far as I know this will be the first profound public study in which we verify and revise our knowledge about how much oil and gas is going to the markets. Many people will come to new conclusions about this.

[Starvid]

Birol has been PO-aware for several years and is warning that if nothing is done with the global energy system, "the wheels may come off."

The interview where he says it, it's dated nov 7 2007.

It's very, very good.

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft ... 230&page=2

[seahorse2]

Thanks for the post. Not very promising, but a necessary alarm bell from someone that, hopefully, people will listen to.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'B')irol has been PO-aware for several years and is warning that if nothing is done with the global energy system, "the wheels will come off."

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'B')irol has been PO-aware for several years and is warning that if nothing is done with the global energy system, "the wheels will come off."

The interview where he says it, it's dated nov 7 2007.

It's very, very good.

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft ... 230&page=2

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', '
')This is from late 2007, too.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')peaking at the launch of the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook in London, Mr Birol reiterated both the Agency’s long term forecast that oil production will reach 116 million barrels per day in 2030.