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THE Greenland Thread (merged)

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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby rwwff » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 05:36:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'T')hat's a huge jump in temperature. Seriously, if Greenland melts then a lot of humanity is going to go underwater (especially in the Bangladeshi flood plains).


There are two big sources of land ice that could melt and drown large coastal areas, greenland, and antarctica. Someone here probably knows what the sea level rise is for each. Together, they are something like 200+ft; but thats with a complete antarctica melt.

So whats the rise with only greenland becoming ... well... green?

On the gulf stream thing, I know its played up a lot in movies, but it may be over-hyped. There is certainly scientific dispute about what can change the gulf stream, and what would be the result of it moving away from Europe or stopping. That kind of thing really exceeds what the models can reliably spit out at this point in time. It doesn't help the model makers that we have no good historical test cases to shoot for.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby Raxozanne » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 06:16:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '
')So whats the rise with only greenland becoming ... well... green?


I'm not sure but if it's over 1 metre then 40 million bangladeshies will have to move shop.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby FishAreBest » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 08:11:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'I')'m not sure but if it's over 1 metre then 40 million bangladeshies will have to move shop.


A quick google reveals that the volume of the greenland ice sheet is 5,000,000 km^3 and the surface area of the worlds oceans is 360,000,000 km^2

If the Greenland ice melted, sea levels would rise by 5/360 of a km, which is a little under 14 metres.

American readers probably need to multiply this by something.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby Doly » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 08:20:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FishAreBest', '
')If the Greenland ice melted, sea levels would rise by 5/360 of a km, which is a little under 14 metres.


I don't think it's realistic to say the whole of the ice will melt. Half the ice sounds more reasonable. In which case you'd have 7 meters, which is about what I've heard quoted before.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby Don35 » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 09:17:29

Think about the weigh of all the ice sheets. As that weigh comes off the land - Earthquakes! Massive earthquakes.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 09:20:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')Normal warming, or human-induced this time?


How about a major normal-warming cycle, disastrously supercharged by human activities?

A strong possibility too few people seem willing to consider.

I don't see why this constantly gets framed as an "either/or" question.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby DoctorDoom » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 10:40:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')Normal warming, or human-induced this time?


Does it matter? It's a disaster either way.

FWIW studies I've read suggest about 1/3 of net warming since the so-called little ice age is due to CO2 and 2/3 due to increased solar output. So even if we do get CO2 emissions under control, or heading downward, it could still melt. Now if only I could evolve those gills...
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby rwwff » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 10:45:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') don't see why this constantly gets framed as an "either/or" question.


It framed either/or by both sides most of the time. If someone says, "we are currently in an unusually cold climate cycle and we've had an exceptionally long run of the cool weather, so there has always been a good chance that homo sapiens would see the Earth's climate return to its long term average." Then all of a sudden, everyone on the blame mankind side that is persuing it for political rather than scientific reasons sees their baby slipping beneath the bathwater and they panic, and get all righteous and inflamed.

On the other hand, if one says, "the current shift in climate is caused by human activity.."; the reader is given a false impression that if we stopped the activity, the Earth would stay cold.

Think of it like a rubber band held in place by a pin. Humanities removed the pin. Rubber band's on its way forward. Putting the pin back does not recover the rubber band.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby NEOPO » Mon 03 Jul 2006, 07:33:42

yadda yadda just can't say anything now can we?

99.999999% simply wont do now will it?

Not enough for you to give up your addiction anyways certainly not.
Hell!! you dont even have a problem now do you?

ya see - GW and PO both insist that you will sooner or later realize that you are an addict.
An addict to an unsustainable lifestyle and it will have to change and its gonna hurt when that time comes and I get the weird feeling its just about any day now wether by PO or GW or both.

Who am I kidding - its happening already or none of us would continue to rant here.

Think of it as a brain completely outside of its body - useless - lifeless - programmed to have as little thought as possible - and even when you put the brain back into the body cavity it simply dysfunctions.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby Keymaster » Mon 03 Jul 2006, 07:59:37

rwwff, that's quite a convenient argument. The earth is in a natural warming cycle, and humans are merely subservient to its awesome forces.

Why bear the burden of guilt, which we - Americans in particular - should bear?

But the facts speak for themselves. The earth's typical warming cycle occurs thousands of years slower than the current warming period. Yet you cite prior temperature variations as compelling evidence that humans are powerless to mitigate or - indeed - even induce global warming.

It's quite clear, meanwhile, that manmade pollutants have accelerated the trend to an astonishing degree. If warming were occuring naturally, then your children, and generations to come, wouldn't have to worry about the immediacy and extent of the problem confronting humanity.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 03 Jul 2006, 10:33:13

Does anyone know if measurements of temperature at the *base* of the Greenland icecap have been monitored ? I just saw a show on volcanic activity and they talked migration of magma chambers beneath the surface and how that causes increase in surface temperatures. It seems like this would melt stuff pretty fast. Or, is the melt attributed and explained only by air temperature increase ?
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby rwwff » Mon 03 Jul 2006, 18:21:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keymaster', 'W')hy bear the burden of guilt, which we - Americans in particular - should bear?


I don't much care about guilt. You can blame me if it makes you feel better.

I really only care about what can happen, and what can not happen.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the facts speak for themselves. The earth's typical warming cycle occurs thousands of years slower than the current warming period. Yet you cite prior temperature variations as compelling evidence that humans are powerless to mitigate or - indeed - even induce global warming.


I think I've been quite clear that humans have indeed tipped the pot. My point is that righting the pot doesn't put the water back.

We have done a lot to accellerate the end of the current cool period; and will continue doing so. I also have commented on numerous discussions that while it seems generally accepted that humans have initiated the warm up, it is only my opinion/hunch that the "switch" has been thown. I think my position will be verified in just a few more years, and my bet is on the results that come out of cloudsat's observations, but it is only a vague hypothesis. On the other hand, there is equally no demonstrateable proof that reducing CO2 emissions will stop the warm up; that position is also only a vague hypothesis.

The biggest issue I have with the current thinking is this blind, wishful thinking that humans on this planet are going to reduce CO2 emissions. While simple observations tell us exactly the opposite is what humans are actually doing. I'd appreciate it if everyone would simply take their blinders off, admit that we are going to rapidly and inefficiently burn off all the oil and as much coal as we can dig out of the ground; accept that, and move on to the real problems of figuring out what the climate is going to look like, and what we need to do as a species in order to survive the result of what we definately are going to do.

I know this sucks as a platform for political action. But reality and physics don't usually care about what is politically expedient.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Tue 04 Jul 2006, 04:48:12

I'd appreciate it if everyone would simply take their blinders off, admit that we are going to rapidly and inefficiently burn off all the oil and as much coal as we can dig out of the ground


My feelings exactly, the dishonesty and utter bullshitting annoys me far more than the actual CO2 emitting, we're all responsible.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby JoeCoal » Tue 04 Jul 2006, 14:37:55

I just saw Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth. The similarities between the Larsen B Ice shelf collapse and what’s happening to Greenland right now were extremely chilling, no pun intended. Highly recommended if you haven’t seen it yet.

We’re in a race between runaway GW and running short of oil in time to stop GW…
Good night, and good luck...
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 04 Jul 2006, 17:51:21

And you can demonstrate a way to stop GW while continuing to operarte all the coal fired generators in use today and those that will be built over the next few years?
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby JoeCoal » Tue 04 Jul 2006, 19:12:49

No, of course not. But at least I live on high ground...
Good night, and good luck...
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 04 Jul 2006, 19:22:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeCoal', 'N')o, of course not. But at least I live on high ground...


If everything were to melt over the next couple years, I'd be able to see the ocean from my house. I'd have to cut down all my oak trees to protect from hurricane effects, and personally do some retrofit internal framing on the house and roof; but otherwise, I've got a beach house. The farm further inland would have to become the permanent residence though, I think.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby katkinkate » Thu 06 Jul 2006, 08:08:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeCoal', 'N')o, of course not. But at least I live on high ground...


If everything were to melt over the next couple years, I'd be able to see the ocean from my house. I'd have to cut down all my oak trees to protect from hurricane effects, and personally do some retrofit internal framing on the house and roof; but otherwise, I've got a beach house. The farm further inland would have to become the permanent residence though, I think.


Good for you then. An increase in property values coming your way.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby Kez » Thu 06 Jul 2006, 12:45:18

It is clear that the northern hemisphere is rising in temperature, but I read little about the southern, and what I do leads me to believe it is stable or cooling. Does Gore talk about the southern hemisphere at all in his big powerpoint presentation? I know there is one ice shelf that is melting there (it started melting 8,000 years ago according to scientific evidence), but the rest of Antarctica, including the middle, is growing with ice.

"This thickening correlated very well with the snowfall modelling, showing that the increased snowfall is causing the ice sheet to grow in mass. We estimate that the ice sheet is holding an extra 45 billion tons of water each year, the equivalent of a sea level drop of 0.12mm a year."

Unfortunately, the same scientists say the Greenland ice sheet is melting at a 0.20 mm a year equivalency of sea level rise.

http://www.iceagenow.com/Growing_Antarc ... _Sheet.htm
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0520-08.htm
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast27dec_1.htm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... xhome.html
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby rwwff » Thu 06 Jul 2006, 12:56:23

There is at least one other longer term issue for antarctica to think about.. The thicker the interior becomes, the more force that is applied to drive outflows. You could get some very near term moderation in sea level rise at the expense of much more rapid rise later.
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