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Sustainable Population

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

World population

10 billion +
0
0%
6-10 billion
0
0%
3-6 billion
1
No votes
2-3 billion
2
No votes
1-2 billion
2
No votes
600 million - 1 billion
1
No votes
200-600 million
0
0%
below 200 million
1
No votes
 
Total votes : 7

Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 16:50:02

It's possible that our current population could be supported sustainably, given massive changes in our way of life. But so many people are devoted to the idea "There MUST be a die-off" it's probably fairly pointless to even mention this.

If you're interested, you can read John Jeavon's "How to Grow More Vegetables" and Bill Mollison's "Permaculture: a designers manual" which both discuss sustaining the current population without degrading the Earth's life systems. I'd really like folks to read these books. There's so much information out there about sustainability. But if you don't believe in the possibility of a sustainable way of life, you probably aren't going to try to read about how to attempt it. It's probably easier to say "5 billion people must die off." It's a debate I'm so tired of I could cry (and actually fairly frequently do literally cry about).
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Revi » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 16:51:29

Great website Montequest! I love the pic of red rocks and all the info! That's the place to get people aware of sustainability.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Jack » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 17:08:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t's possible that our current population could be supported sustainably, given massive changes in our way of life. But so many people are devoted to the idea "There MUST be a die-off" it's probably fairly pointless to even mention this.


The problem is deeper than the opinion that there must be a die-off. Fundamentally, we are called to choose between an energy abundant existence for some, or an energy sparse existence for many. Given the choice, most will choose energy abundance for themselves. People will eagerly sacrifice the lives of others in exchange for comfort for themselves.

If you could change this fundamental characteristic of humankind, perhaps you could accomplish the change in attitude you desire. As for me, I'll bet on humanity's continuation of present behaviors. That means a die-off. 8)
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 17:15:27

Jack, what you see as a "fundamental characteristic of mankind" I see as a cultural characteristic. Cultures can change.

Is that likely? No, it isn't. I've never claimed that. But "not likely" and "impossible" are two very different things.

Is it likely we will change to a sustainable culture and avoid die off? No

Is it possible we will change to a sustainable culture and avoid die off? Yes


Don't you ever get tired of debating this? I'm wondering if there could be any "How can we be sustainable" threads in which the discussion doesn't get derailed into

!!!!!!!!!THERE MUST BE A DIE OFF!!!!!!!!!
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 17:50:52

Seems like most movements in the work/living sense (at least in the US) were to improve peoples standard of living or comfort level and not to reduce their perceived entitlement to whatever they could afford – farm to industrial towns, urban centers to suburbs, suburbs to exurbs.

Other cultural movements were more philosophical but still at little or no personal cost, suffrage, voting age, environmental regulations.

This movement would entail a reduction in the perceived entitlement that Americans expect – to live more sustainably we would need to consume less – a lot less.

I read in the paper this morning about a report by the gov outlining the percentage of income spent on food in 1901 and 2001 – 49% in 1901 vs. 13% in 2001, in 1901 79% of income went to food clothing and housing and in 2001 that portion was 50%.

Another item I read was a proposal to use the 50 million acres of CRP land (farmland kept fallow at government expense) to grow switchgrass for ethanol. Heck they say; it’s growing grass now… but that's a different topic.


Americans today have come to expect a large disposable income – and things to dispose of it on and I see no slackening of that expectation. Die-off is way to big a prospect for me to offer an opinion on but I will say that for the US at least, it is gonna take sustainability becoming an improvement over our daily lives before any mass move in that direction.

And just like the Dustbowl devastation that lead to the soil conservation movement, it isn’t likely to be a pretty picture.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 17:54:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e all know a few things that work. There's solar power (particularly solar hot water), woodstoves, gardens, recycling, carpooling, insulating, bicycling. It all sounds cute, but it really does lessen our impact. And helps us make it through.

I was just driving along on a fairly fast road. I saw what looked like a turtle on the shoulder, heading towards the road. I pulled over and turned around when I found a break in the traffic. By the time I got back to the spot where I saw the turtle it had wandered out on to the road and gotten hit several times and was dead. I picked the mangled shell and meat up and took it to the side of the road. I was so angry that I couldn't save it. It will be eaten by a crow I suppose.

Maybe it is too late for us. Maybe the turtle will be squashed. I don't know. I hope not. There must be something we can do.


God bless ye, Revi. You're my kinda guy. I also rescue box turtles from roadways all the time and release them in the wooded parts of my farm. (The other day I came across a momma turtle laying eggs on a pathway!)
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 18:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'J')ack, what you see as a "fundamental characteristic of mankind" I see as a cultural characteristic. Cultures can change.

Is that likely? No, it isn't. I've never claimed that. But "not likely" and "impossible" are two very different things.

Is it likely we will change to a sustainable culture and avoid die off? No

Is it possible we will change to a sustainable culture and avoid die off? Yes


Don't you ever get tired of debating this? I'm wondering if there could be any "How can we be sustainable" threads in which the discussion doesn't get derailed into

!!!!!!!!!THERE MUST BE A DIE OFF!!!!!!!!!


No, I don't get tired debating this, Ludi, because it's the most important debate there is.

The problem with achieving a relatively pain-free, dieoff-free transition to sustainability is that it would require instantaneous, planetwide changes in fundamental human behavior. We'd all (or most of us) have to become rational and selfless. That's never happened in human history. And in fact, anyone who turns on the TV these days can see that our culture is dumber and crasser and more selfish than ever. Billions are taking up the noble cause of becoming fat-assed couch potatoes.

It's hopeless, Ludi.

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't, in our personal lives, pursue the trappings of sustainability. I'm all for the things you stand for, and I'm doing what I can to achieve them on my own country place.

At the same time, I know it's all hopeless.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 18:06:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') read in the paper this morning about a report by the gov outlining the percentage of income spent on food in 1901 and 2001 – 49% in 1901 vs. 13% in 2001, in 1901 79% of income went to food clothing and housing and in 2001 that portion was 50%.


Cheap food and clothing are, of course, byproducts of cheap oil and globalization, which will soon go the way of the dodo.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Jack » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 18:18:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'J')ack, what you see as a "fundamental characteristic of mankind" I see as a cultural characteristic. Cultures can change.


I suppose - I don't see many examples, but as you say, there are a few. Yet it seems to me that there is a second problem along with the issue of sustainability - that being the conscious decision to restrict growth. It's one thing to do so when one lives on a Pacific island - it seems to me that the cultural shift to rejecting growth in general is quite the tough nut to crack.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Don't you ever get tired of debating this? I'm wondering if there could be any "How can we be sustainable" threads in which the discussion doesn't get derailed into

!!!!!!!!!THERE MUST BE A DIE OFF!!!!!!!!!


Well, truth be told, I guess I don't. That's probably a weakness on my part.

My perception of sustainability threads is that we must decide to live a materially meager existence as subsistence farmers, using the various permaculture techniques you've mentioned to feed ourselves and perhaps generate a small surplus for storage and trade. That strikes me as painful, indeed as an awful fate. I suppose I would yearn for an end to such an existence.

Perhaps you could offer a different perspective - perhaps pointing out where I'm in error about the realities of such a lifestyle, or why it need not be as I've described.

In addition, if you wanted to offer an example of a society that could have grown but chose not to, I'd be interested in reading that. Isolated Pacific islands don't count.

Now, this is about more than pandering to Jack. If you want people to embrace sustainability, it's my opinion that you need to show them why it's better than their current situation. Because if it isn't, the needs of others won't motivate. This leads us back to my favorite issue. 8)
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 18:42:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'D')ie-off is way to big a prospect for me to offer an opinion on but I will say that for the US at least, it is gonna take sustainability becoming an improvement over our daily lives before any mass move in that direction.


That is what we are trying to do at SA, Pops. I am working on Power point presentations that show green buildings under construction, solar arrays, etc. Programs that show cost and ROI times, while reducing overall environmental impacts and energy use.

But it is an uphill battle. Most people just can't imaghine you can cool a home without a traditional air conditioner.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 21:23:52

Shanny is right---to a point. For some people, there's nothing so satisfying as getting out on the land and causing it to bear fruit (literally). I recently harvested many pounds of fabulous shiitake mushrooms from my small mushroom operation, and I've been treating myself to delightful shiitake omelets almost every morning for two weeks now. For me the work that produced this success was not drudgery, but sheer joy.

Jack, however, reflects a different point of view that's also valid---and IMO far more widespread. That group of people loathe any manual labor, whether it's dressed up as "permaculture" or not. Especially they hate putting their hands into the soil, and would do so only at gunpoint or if threatened by imminent starvation. I don't think they're going to "convert" in time.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 21:47:02

You're an outlier, Shannymara. More power to you.

Me, I was sticking my hands into the ground at age 2 (and then sucking my thumbs).
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 21:52:29

Jack, do you REALLY think you will consigned to a fate worse than death, the fate of actually having to touch soil? I don't personally think you will. So why you worry about it and would prefer a dieoff of BILLIONs of people you don't even know to avoid the remote possibility that you will personally have to touch dirt, I don't know.

I really don't know what you dirt phobics are so afraid of.

I just find so much of this kind of debating !!!!!WE MUST DIE!!!!!! tedious beyond human comprehension. We never make any progress.


Just go die already, ok?
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Revi » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 22:04:33

Maybe some kind of religious conversion might help people to tolerate a sustainable lifestyle. Buddhists don their saffron robes and live with a begging bowl. Mormons travel around preaching their religion. Maybe sustainability has to become a quest. Like hiking the appalachian trail, or walking to Santiago de Campostela. It could start with a pilgrimage to the heart of Gaia.
Once people returned from this place they could spread the word that sustainability is possible. There is hope.

I went to Thoreau's cabin site overlooking Walden Pond and everyone had brought small rocks and written things on them and placed them on his cabin site. He may have been the prophet of simple living. Could it start there?
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 22:06:17

Ludi, once you recognize that a century of cheap energy has produced a vast surplus of people who have wrecked much of the earth's natural ability to produce food, there is no debate that at some point a correction in the population must occur. I don't know why you can't accept that. Also, it's possible for individuals to accept the inevitability of dieoff on the one hand and continue to pursue "sustainability" on the other, if only just for the hell of it.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 22:11:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'M')aybe some kind of religious conversion might help people to tolerate a sustainable lifestyle. Buddhists don their saffron robes and live with a begging bowl. Mormons travel around preaching their religion. Maybe sustainability has to become a quest. Like hiking the appalachian trail, or walking to Santiago de Campostela. It could start with a pilgrimage to the heart of Gaia.
Once people returned from this place they could spread the word that sustainability is possible. There is hope.

I went to Thoreau's cabin site overlooking Walden Pond and everyone had brought small rocks and written things on them and placed them on his cabin site. He may have been the prophet of simple living. Could it start there?


I wish I could buy it, revi, but I can't. Religion, especially the Catholic Church, has had a grievous impact on the hope for sustainability. The record is that religion kills the environment, generally by encouraging uncontrolled human growthism. Perhaps you could invent a new religion that departs from the sorry record; good luck.

And hiking the Appalachian Trail will only increase your caloric requirement and put additional pressure on the ecosystem through which it winds.

And how do people get to Thoreau's cabin site? In their big fat SUVs.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 22:25:07

I think "sustainability" is a naive, silly, misleading word. The best we can hope for is a sort of staying action by some smallish, fortunate, educated segment of the population against premature demise. Call it what you will, though, I agree it's worth chasing after.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Revi » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 22:44:34

I'm not advocating traditional religion. I'm just saying that religious fervor can motivate people to do things. If we all felt that it was time to do something, and we did it in concert it could result in a more sustainable world. There may or may not be a die off, but that doesn't preclude doing something about sustainability, if even just on a personal level. It's fun to do anyway. We all like a challenge. This is the ultimate challenge.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby WildRose » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 23:28:57

I also believe that learning to live our lives more sustainably can be rewarding and that if others could see how these kinds of changes could affect them for the better, they'd be motivated towards change. For example, I suggested to my family that we should visit a pick-your-own vegetable farm just a few miles from our home and buy a bunch of produce from them. We won't have our own garden until next year. Sure, the kids wonder why should they do this when it's so easy to buy it at Safeway. But I know they'll have fun, and we'll be supporting a local grower.

The problem is, we are just such creatures of habit. This car culture that we are so addicted to is only about 60 years old (since cars became so popular and we began to rely on them so much), and yet a lot of us still can't imagine an existence without driving everywhere. Or like smoking cigarettes, for instance. I think smoking will eventually disappear and future cultures will find it curious that people smoked. It's a matter of changing mindsets and that yes, encouraging the masses to live more sustainably and to leave a smaller ecological footprint will be a huge task.
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Re: How can we make sustainability happen?

Unread postby Jack » Sun 25 Jun 2006, 23:35:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'J')ack, do you REALLY think you will consigned to a fate worse than death, the fate of actually having to touch soil? I don't personally think you will. So why you worry about it and would prefer a dieoff of BILLIONs of people you don't even know to avoid the remote possibility that you will personally have to touch dirt, I don't know.


No, I don't really expect to be forced to farm. I'd make a pretty awful farmer, I'm sure. I'm better with other things. 8)

As for the dieoff of billions - well, that's part prediction and part explicit preference.

You'll notice that others have pointed out that many feel much as I do. So that adds to my expectation that the consensus will equate to my own.

But Ludi - please consider that you did not offer any compelling arguments for your chosen lifestyle. An idea that cannot be sold in the marketplace of ideas is stillborn.
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