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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Sustainable Population

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

World population

10 billion +
0
0%
6-10 billion
0
0%
3-6 billion
1
No votes
2-3 billion
2
No votes
1-2 billion
2
No votes
600 million - 1 billion
1
No votes
200-600 million
0
0%
below 200 million
1
No votes
 
Total votes : 7

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 08 Feb 2005, 13:56:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')but a fast solution is to import enough soil so your garden is a foot or more deep.


Just curious about where this soil would come from....
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Unread postby bart » Tue 08 Feb 2005, 14:38:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '
')but a fast solution is to import enough soil so your garden is a foot or more deep.

Just curious about where this soil would come from....


Right now, it's easy to get soil trucked in ready to garden. Amendments, etc. are cheap in the quantities needed for gardening.

In a post-peak world it won't be so easy, as you point out. Transporting a bulky item like soil is a hassle. Even so, I don't think soil is a limiting factor for gardening. You can only garden so much land intensively before you are overwhelmed.

Sand and clay are what the land surface of the earth is made up of, so we won't run out of these. The problem is getting them in the right proportions, and having enough nutrients and organic material in the soil.

For starters, we could start directing our waste stream into compost instead of to landfills and rivers. We would need:

Carbon sources: paper, wood, brush, clippings.
Nitrogen sources: food scraps, vegetation that's still green, urine, animal manure, etc.

As long as there is plant and animal life, we won't run out of these.

Organic farmers and gardeners are creating compost and soil now. On a national basis, Cuba is doing it. Over the millenia, farmers in China and other traditional cultures did it. Our ancestors did it.

Once we get over our cultural hangups, we will do it too.
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Re: Correction: Hetch Hetchy power production

Unread postby johnmarkos » Sat 12 Feb 2005, 18:30:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', '
')1.6 Gwh/year -- nothing to sneeze at and comparable to the annual power use of the city of San Francisco. Of course, the entire Bay Area relies on this system but it is still a nice resource.

Wow, I'm surprised nobody called me on this one. I was off by over three orders of magnitude. San Francisco's annual power use is roughly six terawatt hours. 1.6 Gwh is enough to power the city for about three hours. Nonetheless, it may be enough to make the pumps go.

I was wrong again. The initial figure of 1.6 Gwh/year was 1000 times too small. The Hetch Hetchy system produces "1.6 billion kilowatt hours a year." That's 1.6 terawatt hours.

Then there's The Geysers geothermal field near Santa Rosa, California, which produces, "Around 2,000 megawatts in 1988, enough electricity for about two cities the size of San Francisco."

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/LivingWith/Pl ... ermal.html

Given that this region has already developed significant sources of renewable energy and that we have many other untapped potential sources of power (solar, tidal), I'm beginning to return to my initial sentiment that the SF Bay Area could fare relatively well post-peak.

Enough about my little corner of the world. Back to the general discussion of "sustainable life in an urban environment." It seems to me that city-dwellers should find out what existing and potential forms of renewable energy exist within a reasonable distance from their homes. Then, they should figure out where food is produced nearby. If the city is relying heavily on imports (of food, energy, or both) from a far-away region, they may want to consider moving.
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Sustainable Population

Unread postby JudoCow09 » Mon 19 Sep 2005, 20:47:01

I was wondering what everyone thought was a good world population for there to be.

Ignore the pole. Mods may delete it because I can't seem to edit or delete it. {Poll fixed-jato}
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby Grimnir » Mon 19 Sep 2005, 22:49:37

0 is the only number that can be sustained forever. :P
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby dollyp » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 09:35:42

Good question. We currently use an amount of energy every day which has taken 27 years for the planet to accumulate - ie 10,000 days work blown in one day. So if we want to retain our "average" lifestyle, and live sustainably, we need to reduce the population by 1/10,000. (If you taken the definition of sustainabilty to be "using in a day what you create in a day" - remembering that the sun is the only external source of energy input to the equation). So I think that gives a sustainable population of about 600,000 people - much lower than you suggest.

Of course, behavioural theory suggests that this 600,000 people would just crank up their consumption above our current limits and spiral it back out of control again......
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby turmoil » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 10:12:24

Population growth is a direct effect of culture and technology. So sustainability should be measured in terms of cultural choices rather than population.
"If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes

"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby Antimatter » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 10:36:14

Your choice of words implies a value judgement, and I'd like some more choices. :wink:
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby Falconoffury » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 11:34:53

More choices please. For me the answer is about 200 million.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby MD » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 11:39:12

If this population boom crashes later rather than sooner, then the bottom at 200 million followed by new boom/bult cycles between 600 million and three billion.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby deconstructionist » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 11:42:36

more choices... the choices should be a range.

it really depends on how those people live... we could probably sustain 2 or 3 billion if we all lived in walkable self-sustaining communities and used 10% of the oil we're using now.
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby eastbay » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 13:31:40

It depends on the speed and degree to which the 100 million, 500 million or 1 billion post oil peak population devour the worlds remaining resources.

A few million people can defoliate a large land mass. And a hundred million can live on a small land mass indefinitely managing it properly. Unlimately, it all depends on who (whom?) the remaining people are.
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby lotrfan55345 » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 17:06:24

It depends on what type of people...

2 billion if the people are eco-loving.
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby oowolf » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 17:28:33

200-400million hunter-gatherers(if megafauna were restored-of course, mammoth, megaceros, aurochs, etc cannot be restored). 1-1.25 billion subsistence farmers using organic methods, cover cropping, field fallowing, etc.
Until the next ice age which should begin pretty soon.
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby marko » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 20:44:05

World population fluctuated around 500 million from around 500 B.C. to A.D. 1500. This, I think, is a fairly sustainable number, though there would be dips due to periodic epidemics.
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby skiwi » Tue 20 Sep 2005, 21:25:04

They were mentioned several months ago in another thread

Georgia Guidestones

1. Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
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Re: What's A Good Sustainable Population?

Unread postby jato » Fri 23 Sep 2005, 15:56:53

I fixed the poll.
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Re: Sustainability

Unread postby gego » Mon 03 Apr 2006, 21:48:18

Looks to me like in three posts you have given enough evidence to have yourself committed. Just my unmedical opinion.
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Re: Sustainability

Unread postby FireJack » Mon 03 Apr 2006, 22:05:24

I read naked ape to superspecies and am now reading how societies choose to fail or succed. I expect to see a great reduction in the standard of living in the near future followed by a die-off then a slow transition to a sustainble society. Of course since all the cheap sources of energy will have been used up (oil, natural gas) the society will have no real way of really advancing and will probably die out in the next ice age or major environmental change (astroid impact, super volcano, etc). I'm pretty sure this was our one chance to leave the confines of earth but as it stands now all traces that we existed, except for a couple of satilites, will vanish with the sun. Ow well.
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