[Revi]

I just bought eslr at $12.20. They just signed a contract to buy polysilicon from Scandinavia. They should have supply to make string ribbon solar panels. Will it go up? This is my first foray into the stock market. What do you think?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') just bought eslr at $12.20. They just signed a contract to buy polysilicon from Scandinavia. They should have supply to make string ribbon solar panels. Will it go up? This is my first foray into the stock market. What do you think?

[Revi]

ESLR is up a bit already, but who knows? It's been fun already. I figure that it's like putting my money where my mouth is. If I really believe in alternatives why not support them. Also it has been going up lately. A friend bought last summer at $7 and it went up to $17, then slumped when they couldn't get silicon for their process. It started up again yesterday on news that they could get polysilicon from Norway. We'll see...

[Revi]

ESLR is at $13.24 in after hours trading. Does this happen often? I bought at $12.20 this morning. The rest of the market is down, way down. Wow! I have to be careful. This is too fun!

I have to remember that pride comes before the fall... Here's what others think of Evergreen's prospects:

http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/onedaywonde ... &afl=yahoo

[drew]

Don't worry Revi, unless of course we are witnessing the unfolding of the US econ... which people here have been predicting for some years now. Barring that crunch happening commodities will be back up again soon no doubt.

Sooner or later Bush or Amadinijad will say something stupid,

or worse, do something stupid..

Hurricane season is almost upon us...

Summer driving season is upon us..

and the Iraq situation is plodding along as usual...

Of course all this is good for us lucky fools playing on commodities..

Not that I'm a Black Sabbath fan (how appropriate today) but I am reminded of one of their songs 'Iron Man', when thinking about my mostly stress free gut-I don't get distressed at downturns-they are buying opportunities.

Anyways, some will recognize this...

'I AM IRON GUT' ........

Drew

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', '
')Sooner or later Bush or Amadinijad will say something stupid,

or worse, do something stupid..

Hurricane season is almost upon us...

Summer driving season is upon us..

and the Iraq situation is plodding along as usual...

Of course all this is good for us lucky fools playing on commodities..


Drew

[Revi]

ESLR is down a bit now. I shouldn't watch it so much...

[Mechler]

Revi,

Most energy stocks were off today. If you only lost a little, consider yourself lucky.

Welcome to the rollercoaster...

[Bewildebeest]

I'm looking for some advice on investing in other currencies. Maybe someone on this thread can help.

I currently have a large cash position (in a money market), which I plan to use for a house sometime in the next 1 1/2 years. I recently put 5% of this in gold and silver bullion.

I'm planning to put another 15-30% in Euros through a short-term CD. One question is whether there are other currencies that I should also strongly consider. It seems that almost everyone I've read on this board favors Euros as the safest hedge against a falling dollar. What about Asian (or other) currencies?

Everbank, for example, offers an "Asian index CD," which is actually a mix of the New Zealand dollar, Japanese Yen, Thai and Singapore currencies. Would this kind of diversification be a good choice?

Another question is whether I should put more than 30% in foreign currencies. What proportion would you recommend?

Thanks for any ideas.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bewildebeest', 'I')'m looking for some advice on investing in other currencies. Maybe someone on this thread can help.

I currently have a large cash position (in a money market), which I plan to use for a house sometime in the next 1 1/2 years. I recently put 5% of this in gold and silver bullion.

I'm planning to put another 15-30% in Euros through a short-term CD. One question is whether there are other currencies that I should also strongly consider. It seems that almost everyone I've read on this board favors Euros as the safest hedge against a falling dollar. What about Asian (or other) currencies?

Everbank, for example, offers an "Asian index CD," which is actually a mix of the New Zealand dollar, Japanese Yen, Thai and Singapore currencies. Would this kind of diversification be a good choice?

Another question is whether I should put more than 30% in foreign currencies. What proportion would you recommend?

Thanks for any ideas.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
There is no right or wrong answer to this question, just a trade-off between risk and reward as well as higher nominal interest rates in one currency versus better underlying fundamentals in another. If it were otherwise, the exchange rate would have already gravitated to that new equilibrium.

30% of your underlying position hedged into another foreign currency is already substantial insurance, if for example you intend to buy a house in the next year or so.

If you are really bearish your home currency then 50% might be your upside goal. Beyond that and I question your logic in buying any asset, like a house, in your home market if your view is so pessimistic?

The euro is likely to benefit from any dollar weakness. The Asian currency basket sounds like a good play. They have some higher yielding NZD and THB in the basket to make up for zero real yields in the JPY which is a nice diversification. The problem with owning JPY outright is that you end-up with negative real interest rates, and have to rely exclusively on yen appreciation for your yield. If you have the chance to go that direction (Everbank CD) it is probably not a bad one as if the yuan appreciates, other Asian currencies are also likely to appreciate in the region, so the JPY and the SGD will also likely rise too.

An alternative is to sell USD futures on the CME. Then you get appreciation of a basket of currencies against the dollar, but no interest income. However, as you buy on margin, you also do not tie-up as much capital, so the rest can go into a money market account.

Good luck.

[MrBill]

A bearish DOE report further knocked some wind out of the crude complex's rally. Now we are plumbing support at the psychologically important $70.00 in the WTI. The daily support has already broken in the Brent with the hourly charts lending support to this bearish short-term view. As well metals and other commodities were very soft yesterday with follow through selling in the related stocks. The quicker long only profits evaporate in other asset classes the sooner integrated investors such as fund managers are to take profits in other long positions like the crude.

Yesterday's DOE inventory numbers were:

Crude +1.1 mio bbls to 346.6 mio bbls
Gasoline +1.0 mio bbls to 210.3 mio
Distillates +1.8 mio bbls to 120.7 mio
Refinery Runs -0.4% to 91%

TTL imports +39K to 10.88 mbpd
Produce imports -688K to 3.59 mbpd

TTL produce demand +3.8% YOY to 20.95 mbpd
Gasoline demand +0.7% to 9.33 mbpd
Distillate demand unch'd at 4.06 mbpd

Nice builds despite the start on the driving season over last week's long weekend and as refiners come back online after any seasonal maintenance and switchover to ethanol from MTBE. So far so good.

Unleaded still lending support overall to the cracks with the market still in backwardation. Again psychological, a real sell-off would only come as unleaded drops below $2.00 a barrel, which may not be possible now that summer is upon us and the hurricane season is so close at hand?

Certainly the stronger dollar on the back of the expectation of higher interest rates in the pipeline are taking their toll on future demand expectations despite what appears to me to be decent product demand on a year on year basis given we have come so far so quickly and given higher interest rates already?

Mr. Bubble's, I mean Mr. Greenspan's, testimony yesterday certainly questioned robust growth going forward if prices were to spike quickly higher on any supply interuptions, but then the Maestro of Sanguine seemed confident in the market's ability to absorb steadily rising prices, so long as their was no shock? As always, I expect demand destruction to occur around the margins in the form of what consumers give up in order to keep driving. So long as we have global growth at a healthy clip, we will burn more fossil fuels of every description and that will keep excess capacity tight as supply and demand are finely balanced.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'A')s always, I expect demand destruction to occur around the margins in the form of what consumers give up in order to keep driving.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'A')s always, I expect demand destruction to occur around the margins in the form of what consumers give up in order to keep driving.

[Revi]

Wow! Greenspan sounds like one of us!

Mr. Bill, where do you see us in say, 5 years? Will the average middle class person in the US have the living standard of Portugal or that of India?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')ow! Greenspan sounds like one of us!

Mr. Bill, where do you see us in say, 5 years? Will the average middle class person in the US have the living standard of Portugal or that of India?

[quizz]

Interesting article in Reuters about 'Treasury yield inversion curve' acting as an indicator that the Market will continue to suffer:
Reuters news

Seems to be a good indicator (has only failed twice):
A Stock Market Crash in 2006?
The Inverted Yield Curve: Your Investments Are Under Siege

(edit: ooops, I just did a search and see this is discussed elsewhere)

[Bewildebeest]

Mr Bill: Thanks for your reply, just what I was looking for.

Regarding the house, we have been renting for a long time and are still not necessarily in a hurry to buy. Ideally we would wait until the housing bubble deflates, but we also run the risk of our cash savings eroding from inflation in the meantime. I assume you believe that the housing bubble is a bigger risk than inflation? (We will probably be buying in the Seattle or Portland areas, where housing prices are continuing to rise.)

Thanks again.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bewildebeest', 'M')r Bill: Thanks for your reply, just what I was looking for.

Regarding the house, we have been renting for a long time and are still not necessarily in a hurry to buy. Ideally we would wait until the housing bubble deflates, but we also run the risk of our cash savings eroding from inflation in the meantime. I assume you believe that the housing bubble is a bigger risk than inflation? (We will probably be buying in the Seattle or Portland areas, where housing prices are continuing to rise.)

Thanks again.

[MrBill]

I do dislike days that start out like today! My first impression was to sell into weakness as we came off yesterday's dead cat bounce, supported by the fact that the products were in negative territory and it looked weak with no headlines to provide support? Now for some reason we are 50 pts. higher in the Brent lead by a rally in the Gasoil and there are absolutely no headlines out to indicate anything has happened? Uggh!

Stopped out and now sitting here flat wondering which way we'll leerch next? It is almost a universal truth. Once markets stop falling they almost inevitably go back up! Now if I could just figure out when that is?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ummary:
Although today’s sell-off in the petroleum complex was substantial, the resiliency of the market was again put on display as downside follow through proved elusive and most parts of the complex were able to rebound by around 2% on average from the early session lows. While we are leaving open the possibility of further slippage in the crude oil to the $67.00-68.00 area, we would also advise that additional declines of some $2.00-2.50 could prove erratic and arduous unless accompanied by additional gasoline downside leadership. In other words, further weakness in the crack differentials will be a requisite to sustained crude price declines to below the $70.00 level. We remain of the opinion that product price support could easily trump bearish geopolitical developments as a price driver to the crude oil. Notwithstanding today’s late session recovery, we are not ruling out a further decline in the July unleaded contract toward the $2.00 area and an associated
narrowing in the July gas crack toward the $15.00-16.00 area. However, developments in both of these regards could be delayed by a Friday rally or any additional refinery problems. We are maintaining a bearish trading bias in the natural gas in anticipation of further slippage to the $5.75 area where support is expected to develop. The market began the week at the high side of our expected $5.75-6.75 trading range and appears poised to finish the week near the low side. We are maintaining this projected range through the balance of this month.
-Jim Ritterbusch
Consulting Analyst