[CARVER]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')e always knew that there would be no easy way to unravel the globe's huge financial imbalances. And that any attempt would have to come from higher savings in the USA, and higher consumption relative to exports in Asia as well as eroding their own export competitiveness. Except those are exactly the kind of cures everyone is so desperate to avoid.

It is like the doctor saying, 'okay, stop smoking, get more exercise and eat a proper diet.' And the patient saying, 'ya, ya, I know that, but what else could I do instead?'

Everyone who is anyone knows what has to be done. Now where is the political will to do it, and to sell it to the electorate and taxpayers?

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')his is a long one, but well worth the read. I do not agree with everything David W. Tice says, and, of course, I have not checked the numbers, but you cannot help but feel that the gyst of what he is saying is fairly accurate?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Federal Reserve must choose between the US Dollar and Home prices
*insert economic mumble jumbo*

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Marklar', '[')b]
Stocks Advance As Commodities Bounce Back


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060523/wall_street.html?.v=12

Funny. Not long ago that headline would have read. "Stocks decline as rising commodities spark inflation fears" or something similar.

What gives?

[MrBill]

On asset bubbles and targeting money supply as well as inflation indicators by Steven Roach at Morgan Stanley. Definately worth a read.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Inflation may well have been conquered — a conclusion financial markets are actively debating again — but that was yesterday’s battle. Over the past six years, monetary authorities have turned the liquidity spigot wide open. This has given rise to an endless string of asset bubbles — from equities to bonds to property to risky assets (emerging markets and high-yield credit) to commodities. Central banks have ducked responsibility for this state of affairs. That could end up being a policy blunder of monumental proportions. A new approach to monetary policy is urgently needed.

[MrBill]

EIA numbers released here. Sorry did not get them posted ahead of time. The estimates were way off. Small draw in crude against a small build in unleaded. The results were:

Crude -3.0 mio bbls to 343.90 mio bbls
Gasoline +2.1 mimo bbls to 208.30 mio bbls
Distillates +2.5 mio bbls to 117.1 mio bbls

which should be very bearish for prices if you asked me? No? Well, that is my opinion anyway! ; - )

Refinery Runs -0.1 to 89.7% (neutral)

I think the story is in the demand number?

Total product demand +3.3% YOY (despite higher pump prices & higher interest rates), which is the bullish side of this report.

That may be why we are creeping to the topside of the range now, especially ahead of the start of the driving season this coming weekend.

[MrBill]

Keeping everything in perspective...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')igns of the times
It's human nature to react to what we see the most. Gas prices, by law in most places, are posted. So everywhere we go, we see $2.91, $3.09, $3.21. Ugh.
Now, what would we think if Starbucks posted the $3.60 for a caramel Frappucino or if Applebee's announced in big letters its $7 glass of wine, which isn't even posted on the menu let alone on the curb? What if your major credit-card company posted its annual price of $180 for every $1,000 of consumer debt you take on?
A gallon of milk is $3.29 at my grocery. At last, gasoline -- made from a nonrenewable resource imported in many cases from halfway around the world -- is almost as expensive. A gallon of Coke in 12-ounce cans will set you back 5 bucks; a gallon of domestic beer is almost $9. Why, a gallon of drinking water in 16-ounce bottles is almost $7.
If those prices were posted prominently on banners outside the grocery store we'd be up in arms about these items too.

[MrBill]

$100 a barrel on supply disruptions
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices could spike above $100 a barrel if a new shortfall were to hit already tight crude supplies, though such high prices may not be sustainable, Deutsche Bank's chief oil economist said on Tuesday.

Unlike previous rallies, the recent surge in oil prices has been triggered by a series of small supply problems like those in Nigeria, which could be exacerbated by a major outage, Adam Sieminski told the Reuters Global Energy Summit in New York.

"It's a supply crisis of a thousand cuts. It's these small things that add up to a lot of losses," said Sieminski. "It's certainly possible to see oil spike into the triple digits. All it would take is a big problem somewhere."

Losing another 2 million barrels a day from a drop-off in exports from the Middle East, an earthquake in Alaska or a major hurricane could send prices over that mark, he said.

[MrBill]

Morales - is that Spanish for Silver Tongued Devil?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is a shadow gathering over Bolivia -- a wave of socialism that threatens the economic health of the country and billion-dollar investments by foreign companies. Bolivia has already nationalized its natural gas industry -- and Evo Morales, the country's new president, says he won't pay three European firms after taking over their operations.

The big winner
The biggest potential winner as shadows gather over Bolivia is silver itself. If Bolivia does nationalize its mining industry or hikes taxes high enough, foreign investment will grind to a halt. Production would fall, and less supply should send silver prices higher.

[MrBill]

Let's see there are Castro, Chavez, Morales and then President: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is really frightening, but then there are so-called sane commentators who are truly nuts and make those other guys almost look legitimate by comparison....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is one of the most important facts in our world, and hardly anyone you meet will believe it. Most people have been bamboozled by the oil industry led by its flacks, by compliant analysts (read Daniel Yergin et al), by peak oil spinmeisters, a snoozing press, and the heavy artillery brought to bear by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC), which works overtime and spends big to make us believe in the myth of scarcity. That keeps prices high and oilmen rich, while the rest of us pay and pay and pay

[Chaparral]

Lotsa smoke and mirrors in the biz, that's for sure.

On the trading front, CL just does not seem to want to stray much from the 7000 range today. Shorted it at 7040, saw it go down to the 6900s yesterday only to see it reach 7085 today. Factoring out the hurricane fears, I am thinking it should dip to the 6600s based on chart action and fundamentals and the COT data. It is looking like the 68 to 70 dollar range might be more and more the stable number here.

went long on july unleaded at 20300 and exited at 20450 for a quickie profit. Now it's at 20550 and climbing.....bah humbug!

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost people have been bamboozled by the oil industry *insert rant*

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')e thinks when PO hits and prices shoot up to the moon the general public will be looking for a scapegoat. Commodity futures traders (especially gold and oil) beware!

That's why I always make sure there's a full tank of gas in the helicopter parked in my back yard. Just in case I need to make a quick get away.

[MrBill]

How long will the good times last?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he soaring prices have triggered a wave of investment in new refineries and oil production, but it has also renewed fears that the burden of energy costs could trigger inflation and hamper economic growth.

The world's leading oil producer, Saudi Arabia, is spending tens of billions of dollars to expand refining capacity around the world and boost its oil production by 1.5 million barrels to 12.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2009.

In the United States, the world's biggest energy consumer, the oil industry is expected to boost refining capacity by 12 percent by 2010 with expansions at existing plants, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

The combination makes up a recipe for a fundamental downturn in oil prices in the coming years, experts said, underscoring the perennial boom and bust trend of the energy business.

[drew]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'C')ommodity futures traders (especially gold and oil) beware!

That's why I always make sure there's a full tank of gas in the helicopter parked in my back yard. Just in case I need to make a quick get away.

[drew]

BTW, I read that Learsey article too. What a complete F@#%ing idiot. He should seriously try doing some basic research first...

A lot of journalists do a real disservice to the public don't they?

Drew

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat ARE your escape plans Mr. Bill???

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat ARE your escape plans Mr. Bill???

[truecougarblue]

For a second there I thought I was reading the "planning for the future" thread.

I've gotten back into AU mining in the last few days. I've got my stops in and hope it doesn't decide to ride down further toward 590. I've got a pretty good feeling about the gold for the next 2 weeks, after that I'm not so sure. Maybe we will see further correction to 590s

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('truecougarblue', 'F')or a second there I thought I was reading the "planning for the future" thread.

I've gotten back into AU mining in the last few days. I've got my stops in and hope it doesn't decide to ride down further toward 590. I've got a pretty good feeling about the gold for the next 2 weeks, after that I'm not so sure. Maybe we will see further correction to 590s

[Chaparral]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')but it is still early hours and more bears to trap before the close.