[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hoplite', 'W')hen you doomers point out that ethanol can't replace petroleum in your doomer scenarios, you're correct; it cant. But what your neo-malthusian scenarios fail to consider is conservation. THe USA could cut our gasoline usage 50% or more in one DAY IF WE HAD TO- simply by carpooling. So, you see, We don't really need to replace 100% of of Petroleum usage we only have to supplement it. OF COURSE this requires PRICE rationing, all we have to do is make it expensive enough to force the proles into conservation mode. ($4.00/gallon, mas o menos, should do it).

[emersonbiggins]

Another thing about the supposed benefits of carpooling: unless you are fortunate enough to have your spouse's place of work or a coworker's house located in the general area of your daily commute, you could end up using more gas than driving separately. How's that, you say? Well, for example, my wife works 6 miles due east of our house, while I work 7 miles due south. For us to commute separately, we drive a total of 26 miles per day (14 on mine, 12 on hers). For us to commute together, we would drive one car 30 miles per day (12 to/from her work, 18.5 to/from my work to/from her work). Ignoring the costs of purchasing and upkeeping two vehicles for a moment, the daily effects on gasoline usage from carpooling for us are a net loss of 4 miles/day.

[lorenzo]

Let's not forget the following:

-sugar cane is only a temporary step in our biofuels future
-the next step is cellulosic ethanol, which makes it possible to use virtually *any* biomass feedstock
-sugar cane will remain a good ethanol producer, certainly when taking into account its high yield, and the fact that the residue-biomass which is now being burnt, will later be used as feedstock in biorefineries which convert these "residues" into ethanol
-so sugar cane will see its ethanol productivity double or even triple when these biorefineries become established

-last but not least, the Brazilian government is phasing out physical labor and replacing it with mechanical harvesting; most Brazilian sugar cane producers are already switching to mechanical harvesting

In short, we're looking at a bright green future for all of us.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '-')the next step is cellulosic ethanol, which makes it possible to use virtually *any* biomass feedstock
-sugar cane will remain a good ethanol producer, certainly when taking into account its high yield, and the fact that the residue-biomass which is now being burnt, will later be used as feedstock in biorefineries which convert these "residues" into ethanol

[shortonoil]

lorenzo said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-')the next step is cellulosic ethanol, which makes it possible to use virtually *any* biomass feedstock

[RG73]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]lorenzo said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-')the next step is cellulosic ethanol, which makes it possible to use virtually *any* biomass feedstock

[crapattack]

I don't like the idea of plants bred not to reproduce. Reproduction is the basis of all organic life. Also, farmers who choose these mutant seeds that can only been grown with big machines and tonnes of chemicals (by Monsanto) are really making themselves into serfs to the feudal overlord who dictates everything to them. The family farm has largely disappeared in NA and we haven't even bothered to care. I'm sure the corporate interests would love to have the rural places empty out of people and massive farming operations, efficient and regulated, put in their place. People in cities, large empty agricultural belts. So much for rural culture. So much for tradition. All valueless and therefore meaningless in a world that puts a price on everything.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'A')ll valueless and therefore meaningless in a world that puts a price on everything.

[Neargone]

'Watched a 2 hour show on CBC the other night called "Big Sugar". I'm hoping that it was biased, and not a true sampling of the living conditions of the sugar cane cutters. To me, it appeared that even though slavery was supposed to have been abolished a long time ago, it still flourishes today on the sugar plantations.

http://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/bigsugar/

How does this relate to peak oil? Well, even though I don't believe that ethanol has a good enough EROEI to come even close to oil, it will probably be one of the fuels used in the future. Lorenzo stated that growing crops for ethanol/bio-fuels will give the poor people much needed jobs in the future that will also help to sustain our society. Slave conditions for the masses?
I figure that in order for Humans to exist on this planet, our #'s would have to be reduced, and the remaining populace will have to live in a sustainable manner. There will be some technology ( for the plantation owners), but probably most everyday tasks will be manual labour, and most likely most of us will be farm workers. How we get to this point eventually is anyone's guess.
I can envision a world where jobs start disappearing, fuel and food becomes a luxury. Rumors will spread about the farm 20 miles east of town that is hiring labourers to work the fields for room and board. As the unemployed increase in numbers, this may be the only place for them to go. Welfare programs and food aide are likely to be cut.
Some 'corn'ucopians think that bio fuels are our future. I believe it too.

[Neargone]

Pstar wrote:
"I read that it takes 10 workers to clear a hectare. If you make ethanol from the cane then you have to figure all the energy that goes into all these the activities. The workers need to be fed, clothed, transported, medicated, etc. etc. This all takes petroleum in addition to the petroleum to collect, transport, mill the cane, and ferment the sugar to ethanol."

I have read many of the posts about bio-fuels. I don't think it is a viable replacement for oil. The many factors; EROEI, along with the environmental distruction, food crops competing with fuel crops and the scale doesn't make sense to me as being a good thing. But I do think that it will be used anyway by harnessing Human, animal, and wood/coal power to do the job that oil does today.
I hope to talk more about the Human condition rather than the energy viability of bio-fuels. The growers of bio-fuels will likely be the same guys that are doing it today. Who else would be better at growing these crops than the ones who are already doing it? The present plantation owners seem to be running it the same way as it was done 200 years ago.
I have no idea whether the cane cutters in Brazil have good working conditions or not. The "Big Sugar" presentation was mainly about the countries like Dominican Republic. The living conditions were "slave like", and the pay barely enough to survive on. I would think that it may in fact be the same no matter where it is grown.
I realize that taking advantage of poor people exists today, and always has in history. Nothing will change this in the future. I would not call this "job opportunities" for the poor to lift themselves out of the hole. The disgraceful way these people are treated may in fact be a glimpse of what switching to bio-fuels will really cost.
I am quite new to this forum. I still want to read more than post, as I am still learning. I would like to have some view points about this darker side of bio-fuels. I wonder if we all become poorer as a result of peak oil and of course over-population, that most of who are left will be forced into slavery so the rich can still have toys.
I don't think this will happen quickly. But gradually as more people become unemployed and have no where to go. Somehow I don't see a future where Men are helping each other to achieve a post peak oil society where everyone benefits and has enough to eat.

[Neargone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')eargone, it took me a thousand posts to get as pessimistic as you already seem to be.

If I could see any signs that we in fact have different instincts then the average animal, I would be more hopeful. We'll likely stay on the same path until we can no longer do so.

It would be an interesting exercise to detemine if slave labor working corn fields instead of heavy fossil-fuel powered farm equipment would tilt the energy equation in favor of biofuels. I thought I'd start this project by looking at Amish corn harvesting with horses. Haven't found anything yet

[ca2devri]

Neargone,

I tried making this point to lorenzo in one of the big biofuels thread (that it really won't be a positive thing for farmers).

I saw the program on CBC too. It sickens me to think how people are still treated in some parts, but I can't say that I am surprised. It also amazes me how Westerners, by and large, think that we are not culpable in the mistreatment of these people. Ask people if they think it's bad and they'll likely say sure, but ask them to pay 3X the price for fairly traded sugar and they'll probably ignore you and go back to what they were doing. The same thing will happen in order to get the cheapest biofuels possible out of third world countries.

I actually don't think people like lorenzo really think about those who will be affect. He probably doesn't even care.

Chris

[Neargone]

"Ask people if they think it's bad and they'll likely say sure, but ask them to pay 3X the price for fairly traded sugar and they'll probably ignore you and go back to what they were doing. The same thing will happen in order to get the cheapest biofuels possible out of third world countries."

Exactly.

[IslandCrow]

The Brazilian sugar harvest is one of the great hopes for alternative fuel. But I have just beening browsing through the new FAO Food Outlook report (June 2006). One point was that for the third year running sugar consumption was greater than production....I guess sugar production can not keep up with demand.

They have a seperate report on THE RISE IN CRUDE OIL PRICES STIMULATES ETHANOL-RELATED DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

which has this graph


Scary isn't it!

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', '
')Scary isn't it!

[thor]

If you can make me a chart that positively correlates oil and baby food, now that would be scary indeed.