[Dukat_Reloaded]

Ofcourse I am right. Just have to wait till the end of the week. 10% correction for copper is almost $1,000 drop per ton. I heard that Goldman sachs has Large shorts at the $700 level in gold. Anyway 10 straight week gains in gold would have to suddenly run out of steam.

I don't even know what the price of gold is right now, Kitco won't load up.

[Chaparral]

More than a few of us saw this one coming.

I shorted the living hell out of crude and unleaded last week and exited silver and gold.

The question now is; how long will this little correction take? Will we reach the 2nd Fibonacci retracements in energy? (we already reached the first levels around May 8th).

Gold & Silver appear to have reached their first Fib#...actually dipped below the ones I calculated even.

The dollar bounce might just be a result of positions being closed out to cover margin calls in other commodities.

At any rate, the COT report shows that the big commercials are "coppering" the PO crowd fairly heavily in things like the Euro, Yen, USD and Crude.

[madrid]

So for those of you who obviously know more about commodities prices than me, Silver is now, according to Kitco, at 13.23 and gold is at 686. So I have some questions:

1) If you had some cash, at what price might you start buying silver and gold again?

2) I keep hearing that there are all these reports on inflation tomorrow as well as tons of earning reports-- might it be the case that tomorrow all this instability in the market could be finished, and people understand a clear direction for the Dow and for precious metals? Thus it would be too late tomorrow, if the price of gold and silver go back up?

3) Is the IMF right now trying to prop up the dollar, and what are the odds that it will succeed?

[Dukat_Reloaded]

If you wanted to get into gold, perhaps put alittle now, I don't know how far it might correct.



I have never seen such an ugly haggard chart as that.

[madrid]

So you would say no on silver?

I would have thought silver was the better deal at 13.23. Can you tell me why yes on gold, but no on silver?

[Dukat_Reloaded]

I perfer gold. Silver is more volatile, but last week showed how powerful the gold bull was in relation to silver. All in all it doesn't matter, they are both precious metals. I don't think owning one or the other really matters.

[Chaparral]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('madrid', '1')) If you had some cash, at what price might you start buying silver and gold again?

[Dukat_Reloaded]

What inflation reports are you talking about?

[Chaparral]

US PPI due out 12:30 GMT Tuesday, CPI due on Wed, 12:30 GMT.

[greenworm]

Interesting you mention the IMF, since they have plenty of gold assets. They can ultimately dictate the price of gold, all it takes is one little report from these guys and the bottom falls out. They have done it before, trust me. I think the commodity slow down is mostly due to Helicopter boys retoric concerning interest rates. Before he mentioned a slow down, which was a signal for the gold bugs to hoard. Their thinking was if you go easy on the dollar you are going to cause rampant inflation (like that isn't already happening ) He was a little tougher this time around and his intention was to slow down the commodity bull market. key phrase "slow down" I can't believe I shorted a gold mining stock friday, I felt like I was betraying a friend.

[Marklar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'S')o you agree oil i slikely to go up if US$ continues down.
Why do you in that case think metals are going down?
Usually higher oil and lower US$ has the effect of pushing metals up.

(Hope you're not referrring to my use of the word crash. I put it in quotation marks to indicate that it was a slightly loose or even ironic way of using the word crash. )

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') said I think the falling dollar would make imported oil more expensive.

[airstrip1]

Commodity markets are brutal places where the greedy and the stupid can easily come unstuck. I expect that there are one or two people out there who have switched to this area from equities and have now got their fingers seriously burnt

On edit

The attached article from Saturday's Daily Telegraph in the UK gives some interesting details about how seriously the price of copper has got disconnected from actual demand. Indeed, the speculation that is driving the price up has caused some manufacturers in Germany to cut their usage of the metal by half.

Telegraph Copper

Somebody will have taken a very nasty hit today.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

I knew these things would start to fall when everyone became bullish. They asked 23 traders and 18 said to buy gold. After a parabolic rise everyone says to buy. It's a shame, when gold was $550 they said not to buy, reaches $720 they say buy, where is the logic in that?

[Marklar]

they say buy likely because they already bought. When "everyone" is already in agreement there's no one left to agree with them so the buying stops.

This is sort of why in one of my threads earlier this year I said I expect oil to end the year in the $50s. That and at the time, supplies were rising with the prices. Didn't make sense. Oil supplies still rising and gasoline is improving.

There's just so much cockiness on the bullish side. So I'm taking somewhat of a superstitious point of view. Murphys law would kick in if I were to buy oil futures, I'm sure.

[Marklar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') said I think the falling dollar would make imported oil more expensive.

[madrid]

So are you guys saying that we are in for a big readjustment for gold and silver as well?

By the way, when I buy gold, I buy it through the stock, Gold Street Trust, so I am unfamiliar with the ways in which some of you buy it.

[deconstructionist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukat_Reloaded', 'I') knew these things would start to fall when everyone became bullish. They asked 23 traders and 18 said to buy gold. After a parabolic rise everyone says to buy. It's a shame, when gold was $550 they said not to buy, reaches $720 they say buy, where is the logic in that?

[Chaparral]

The gold lease rates are waaaay down today. It appears that no one wants to lease it to short the market and buy back after the "correction"?

[Micki]

Well so far my gold "correction" of $20-30 has held. (Not that I am beating my own drum as most of my conclusions are based on other peoples analysis.)
Open interest also suggests gold was further shorted and THAT caused the drop NOT initiated by longs taking profit.
Since then gold has started showing signs of recovery.

Compare Gold with for instance Copper and you see gold is still way behind.
Funny thing was Dennis Gartman (closet gold bear who has predicted long term gold gains but first a serious correction for at least over year now) was on Bloomberg yesterday.
As usual he suggested that gold was ahead of it self and needs to come down to $550 and then will be a nice buy.
Looking at the copper chart, which really looks parabolic, he just concluded, yeah that a result of short sellers covering.
HELLO!!! A handful of gold bears are ahort >10,000 TONS and this clown thinks only copper can go parabolic.

Signs are this is not yet the time for a larger correction.