[Colorado-Valley]

Hey, if there's going to be a dip in gold, we can all buy into it.

I don't see where helicopter Ben's going to stop the printing presses any time soon ...

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilluber', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukat_Reloaded', 'a')mericandream.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')opper surged this week to an all-time high of $8,875 a tonne, rising almost 10pc on Thursday. Yet futures prices for April 2011 are just $3,778 a tonne.

[Micki]

Just because fundamentals suggest that some commodities are overpriced, why would the 'crash' come THIS week???

Price retreatments can happen ANY week and as a trader you always need to ensure you don't overtrade on leveraged positions without proper stoploss strategies.
Money management is simply the most important rule when trading.

I agree however with basketballjones gold is more likely to up rather than down. During the last few months whenever there has been dips there is a lot of short covering trying to bailout driving the price right back up.
Some wallstreet favourite analysist like Gartman has been predicting a gold top for over a year now.
Prechter went out to his clients when gold was $630 and recommended the sell of a lifetime. Gold was going right back to $350.
These guys failed in their analysis casue they haven't accepted the fact that the market is manipulated and there is are some HUGE short positions out there from before gold hit $500.
China, Russia etc knows this and have put a bear squeeze on to ensure the trapped bears don't get away.

Furthermore, there aren't that many smalls specs in gold.
The big guys usually like to wait for the little people to get in and then cashout.

Having all that said, there will be some swings also in Gold.
I just don't think we are there quite yet.
Perhaps $20-30 dips for now.

Regarding oil...oil recently broke 70$ and ha succesfully tested $69-70 level and found support. Think we need to see at least a peak up to $80 before any bigger retracement.
By then hurricance season should have started some activities, so retracements here may also be brief and shallow.

Copper...Personal thoughts only. China is stocking up copper to 1. get rid of dollars, 2. have stocks in case of serious oil crisis anmd of course 3 for their property boom etc.
It would be silly of them to stop buying now as their US$ reserves would grow faster and it would be harder for them to diversify without upsetting US + trigger off larger scale sales. i.e. as long as China buys stuff instead of diversifying into other currencies, the move is seen as legit rather than abandonment of $.

[Seth]

Sure there might be a sell off in the short term, but there are some pretty good reasons for the increase in commodity prices. The whole world is shaky on the dollar, copper is in short supply and in high demand, and--guess what--energy costs are up 50% over last year's average (and up 30% every year for the previous three). Destabilizing economies? Sure. That's the whole point of resource extraction "peaking", especially when population and economic growth are still on the upward swing.

Long term = prices are still too low. They will drop when 4 billion people are dead of starvation and the world economy is decimated.

[gego]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukat_Reloaded', '
')
If your in some highly speculative long positions in Gold mining or gold on margin, I would get out soon, if you have bullion, keep hold on it. I think oil will goto $65 this week and lower after that. $70 oil is effecting economies, people are driving less and it is effecting demand. Demand is going down, but prices are rising, production is increasing but still the price has recently been rising. The fundamentals are out of wack, expect a crash in all these prices.

[EnergyHog]

So let me get this straight, commodities are overbought so this week there must be a crash. Commodities were overbought last week, the week before that, the week before that, and the week before that, and probably a few more. So why now?
You backed your claim up with a story about builders switching from copper to PVC. Are people going to switch from gold to fools gold? From silver to tin? And instead of oil, I'll just fill up with fake oil substitute because at $75/bbl I had decided to just forego the commute to work altogether. Could copper go down because people switch to PVC? Sure, if that buying source was a large percentage of the market but what does that have to do with the other commodities?

[americandream]

How much of a brain does it take to work out that 2.5 billion Chindians sucking at the planets resources are gonna put price pressures on a swathe of them long term....lie big time......you'll get see saws as markets micro fluctuate.....but long term....say 2011......if you reckon that we are gonna be behind where we are at present, costs adjusted for inflation......lol....I want what you are smoking dukati.

[green_achers]

You may be right. I've been waiting for a correction for about 3 weeks, but just Friday broke down and bought a couple of eagles. Now it'll probably come down. However, at about 5 hours into the trade week (2100 NY time) gold is up almost $10.

Edit to add: I actually posted this about a quarter till. You can keep up with it here.

[skiwi]

[url=http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,19138500%255E1702,00.html]Commodities hit records
[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ETALS prices rallied to all-time highs at the weekend on a rush of speculative buying amid geopolitical concerns and tight supplies.

Metals were boosted also by news last week that economic giant China planned to set up strategic reserves of copper, aluminium, uranium, coal, iron, and other key mineral resources over the next five years.
The prices of aluminium, copper, zinc and nickel struck fresh record highs as low global inventories, supply disruptions and concern over Iran prompted frenzied speculative buying.

[Marklar]

funny how $65 would be considered a crash by some. But I happen to agree with the author of this thread. Maybe it's not this week and maybe not as far down but I think things my quiet down some. Especially on Gold if the dollar improves

[Micki]

So you agree oil i slikely to go up if US$ continues down.
Why do you in that case think metals are going down?
Usually higher oil and lower US$ has the effect of pushing metals up.

(Hope you're not referrring to my use of the word crash. I put it in quotation marks to indicate that it was a slightly loose or even ironic way of using the word crash. )

[Golgo13]

I just bought my first ounce of gold today. I payed a bit over market value due to buying a single ounce and shipping/handling, but I expect that it will all be recouped eventually anyway.

[DantesPeak]

Well predicting copper is impossible. But I will take up this bet:
oil and gold will ended higher this Friday the 19th than the prior one.

My main reason: the dollar will be still falling. OPEC has now started devaluing the dollar for the first time in a while:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')uwait revalues dinar, Saudi riyal rises


May 13 2006


DUBAI: Kuwait, the third-largest Arab oil producer, revalued its currency for the first time in 16 months, allowing the dinar to trade at the strongest since it was pegged to the US dollar in 2003.

The 1 per cent increase prompted speculation that other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council such as Saudi Arabia will follow Kuwait, as record oil prices cause the region’s exports to swell. Saudi Arabia’s central bank governor said the nation doesn’t plan to revalue the riyal.

US Treasury undersecretary for international affairs Tim Adams said “there are a number of oil-producing countries that we think should look at their exchange rate regime”.

“This is a preemptive move from the Kuwaiti central bank to offset the current and expected weakness in the US dollar given the structural problems in the US,” said George Richani, deputy treasurer for National Bank of Kuwait, the country’s biggest lender.

[Micki]

Good on ya Golgo13. Now don't give in to the urge to sell when the price hits $850. Physical gold is held for the long term. Paper gold is easily traded back and forth.

Buying physical gold is always higher cost than the official gold price because of shipping etc. Most gold also have some added premium for manufactuing. i..e. coins or even bars with a nice littel stamp on them etc.
If you really get into it, it may be worth investing in allocated gold that is safely stored for you. i.e. Goldmoney.com has very reasonable rates, allows investment in silver.

[zoidberg]

read iltulip.com
http://itulip.com/
Look on the left side and read the guardian article it links to. Basically the dollar is falling too fast(again) and a global effort to slow the decline is afoot. This is what is indirectly going to push commodity prices down. It would seem to be a futile effort, but successful in the short term.

Perhaps a good buying opportunity.

[Golgo13]

Thanks, Micki. I'll definately look into some allocated gold.

[Micki]

Golgo13, In case you didn't already know it; there are significant differences between unallocated and allocated gold.

Allocated gold means they earmark YOUR gold so that noone touches it.
Unallocated means you have a certain ounce/gram/kilo ownership but from a constantly changing pool. YOUR gold is not earmarked.

What this means is that the gold you thought you had in an unallocated pool, has been borrowed to shortsell the market and actually try to drive the gold price down, with the intention of replacing it later. This may be a problem if gold price rises too fast too far. They can't replace the borrowed gold without making huge loss or.... going broke, in which case you can kiss your gold good bye.
I am actually not with goldmoney myself (yet, because of hassle with transfering money etc I've stayed with Perth Mint and gold preference shares in Australia) but the fact that they have safe storage in amongst other Switzerland AND the gold is physically kept suggests this is one of the safest ways to invest in gold.

[willjones4]

looks like the author of this thread was right. Gold is down over $21 right now...

[newhunter-gatherer]

Shouldn't the price of silver be starting to go nuclear about now?

[firestarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('willjones4', 'l')ooks like the author of this thread was right. Gold is down over $21 right now...