[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '
')I can't see how you could qualify this as a non-event.

[WebHubbleTelescope]

What a scam that guy rode, right down to the last day!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')all me crazy, but when I step out my front door, things look EXACTLY like they did when oil was cheap. I mean EXACTLY. The roads are choked and overflowing with cars. The freeways are clogged with traffic jams so long you can't even see the end of them. The shelves in the supermarket still look the same. Same products. Same prices. Tidal waves of plastic junk, curios and fresh vegetables continue to fly in from all corners of the earth. Plastic bags continue to be as plentiful as they've ever been. There's been no perceptible slack-off in junk mail volume.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'W')ell no, JD isn’t wholly objective, who is? I see him no worse than someone like Monte, and for the record I have respect for them both.

[grabby]

Well, we have more expensive gas now, so it doesn't look exactly the same any more.
But the lines are still big and growing daily at the pump. in Portland this weekend I was in an actual line to get gas that was about 20 cars long.

shades of 70's.

We will see the Dems "come to the rescue" when the lady from cal takes the speaker of the house and starts producing biofuels so we can choke on even more fuel production.

[Lighthouse]

The definition for a non-event is

An anticipated or highly publicized event that does not occur or proves anticlimactic or boring.

PO fits this description. No one knows exactly if we have already reached the peak or when we will reach it. Not much going on if we at the highest point. Quite boring actually.

The real events following this "non-event", when we are at the down-slope, will proof to be much more interesting.

[linlithgowoil]

all this stuff about peak oil being a non event might actually be true though. i thought everyone on here was familiar with the term 'the long emergency'?

a long emergency isnt an 'event' just like the collapse of rome wasnt an 'event'. it was a long process that was probably not all that apparent to those around at the time - bit by bit the empire started to fade, but with on sudden collapes.

isnt that what peak oil is all about?

barring some unforeseen event such as war in the middle east, i simply do not see peak oil as being an 'event'. it is simply a change in circumstances over an extended period that most people will experience impercetibly, this is all assuming that decline rates arent massive and no disruptions in supply of course - which all might happen.

i can certainly concur that i see no difference outside my window with oil at $70 than when it was $10. there are MORE cars now with oil at that price, and the price of food hasnt skyrocketed. that tends to suggest to me that the 'petrocollapse' idea is nonsense.

[MfromAmsterdam]

yeah a big squeeze to bleed the little guy. most profitable.

although the folks in falluja will disagree.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'b')arring some unforeseen event such as war in the middle east, i simply do not see peak oil as being an 'event'. it is simply a change in circumstances over an extended period that most people will experience impercetibly, this is all assuming that decline rates arent massive and no disruptions in supply of course - which all might happen.

i can certainly concur that i see no difference outside my window with oil at $70 than when it was $10. there are MORE cars now with oil at that price, and the price of food hasnt skyrocketed. that tends to suggest to me that the 'petrocollapse' idea is nonsense.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he stock market correction of 2000 was nonsense?

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I') came to the conclusion that peak oil is a non-event, which has no significant impact on my daily life.

[Shadizar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he stock market correction of 2000 was nonsense?

[Novus]

JD, if you really beleive that, then why did you close your blog? If PO truely such a non-event and not worth discussing, then why did you create your blog in the first place? Are you afraid to have a blog that still denies PO when the shit hits the fan.

PO is in its early stages so of course it is a current non-event. Cancer is a non-event in its early stages as well. By the time cancer gets bad to really make you sick there is not much that can be done. We peak oilers are like the doctor who just digonosed you with cancer in its earliest stage and your response is: 'it is a non-event, I feel fine.'

[rwwff]

I think the point is that to a large extent, short of the collapse theory, he can ignore all of those things you listed with impunity. I'm not sure he's wrong. In the 70's we had pretty intense inflation, and it made the news, but no one I knew starved to death, there was a bit of car pooling, but in general, it was a nuthin.

So until we have sustained, multiyear inflation exceeding 20% annually, I think a lot of people may very well be able to ignore the issue completely. No one really cares, when they flip the light switch, whether the electricity in question was generated by solar, by nuke, or by coal.

Its this side of the argument that leans me, personally, towards the side of non-event status. All that said, regardless of my opinion at the moment, I ain't buying anybodies book on the subject.

[Shadizar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I') think the point is that to a large extent, short of the collapse theory, he can ignore all of those things you listed with impunity. I'm not sure he's wrong. In the 70's we had pretty intense inflation, and it made the news, but no one I knew starved to death, there was a bit of car pooling, but in general, it was a nuthin.

So until we have sustained, multiyear inflation exceeding 20% annually, I think a lot of people may very well be able to ignore the issue completely. No one really cares, when they flip the light switch, whether the electricity in question was generated by solar, by nuke, or by coal.

Its this side of the argument that leans me, personally, towards the side of non-event status. All that said, regardless of my opinion at the moment, I ain't buying anybodies book on the subject.

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'Y')es, that's correct. Most of you folks are profoundly and sadly addicted to the media news cycle, so it's hard for you to understand... Nevertheless, all the "events" you cite are nothing but media events. They might as well be fictional stories, or movies. I can ignore them with impunity.

Peak oil follows the same pattern. It has no effect at all on any of the parameters of my daily life, so I can ignore it with impunity.

You want to scare me? Don't point to "links" or "stories" or "theories" or "parables". Show me how peak oil is hurting me, right now. (Don't bother citing "gas prices" -- I don't drive.)

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he stock market correction of 2000 was nonsense?

[Zardoz]

This is really amazing. As of today, supply is still meeting demand, so of course we're continuing to rock along.

Yet JD cites that as proof of some sort that we're going to continue rocking, and nothing is going to change.

Please, JD, explain to us how things will continue to be "non-eventful" when we are deep into the era of demand badly outstripping supply, which could well start this winter, if the IEA supply and demand charts are correct:

World Oil Supply

World Oil Demand

If the projected 4th Quarter 2006 demand figure is correct, yet we are still stuck at the 84 million BPD plateau, then we will officially be into what amounts to everybody's definition of PO, won't we? By this time next year, in that case, you and all the rest of us will be having very different discussions, won't we?

See you then.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'I')f the projected 4th Quarter 2006 demand figure is correct, yet we are still stuck at the 84 million BPD plateau, then we will officially be into what amounts to everybody's definition of PO, won't we? By this time next year, in that case, you and all the rest of us will be having very different discussions, won't we?

See you then.