[BTUperLBM]

If oil is expensive we will move more goods by railroads and water. If we switch to coal, railroads are the place to invest. Take a look at how the railroads have performed in the last two years. Burlington Northern, CSX, etc. most have beaten Exxon, and this is no small feat. I am investing in oil, oil services, commodities, gold and railroaods in my 401k. The 25% per year over the last two years have dwarfed how much my heating oil and gas bills are up. Will I get another 25% this year, sure I hope so, but I will be happy as longas I am not too negative at worst.

I will play this theme for the next 10 years before alternatives, conservation or a major drop in demand (this could be due to many unsavory events, which I hope do not happen) occurs.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') have been trying to think of what I would cut out of my budget when it gets tight.

[OneLoneClone]

THis thread is a bit stale, but with CNN's first peak oil special coming up, public awareness on this issue gets closer.

I wonder now long till FOX follows suit. Until they are screaming about it on right wing talk radio I dont expect panic.

I think the right may embrace peak oil as a way to get around environmental laws and generally declare war on environmental nimbyism re drilling, pipes, powerplants, etc. Short term profits.

I dont think mass PO awareness will crash the markets or real estate immediately. The capacity for denial is vast. I think we'll have a long bear market with false bottoms and fake-out rallies.

[PonyBoy78]

Right now, I'm spending roughly 65% of the monthly income on debt reduction. The other 35% goes to rent, home heating gas, electricity, food, DSL, phone, and my cable bill. I'm roughly one month away from being debt-free; when that time comes, I will then begin saving-up for some acreage and a house.

The first things to be cut from my budget if times got tough? Cable, luxury foods, vacation travel. Eating out at restaurants is a big weakness of mine, I admit; I could buy a week's worth of food for the price of one or two good meals! DSL is as cheap as dial-up, and an internet account can pretty much serve as my entertainment budget, along with whatever video games I already own.

I see recession. People cooking at home more often. Taking fewer vacations. Sitting at home on weekend nights instead of going out to bars, clubs, and restaurants. More people falling-behind on their credit card payments. More bankruptcy. More judicious in clothing budgets, waiting for sales and/or seeking-out bargains in thrift shops. Families consolidating resources into fewer, more crowded homes, being supported by fewer breadwinners. Overall, I see change as being more gradual than simply overnight.

My profession is non-exportable (healthcare worker), and I often wonder how long this industry will stay lucrative for me to prepare. Do you have any thoughts on this aspect, Monte (or others)?

[Pondman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he most dependent countries on oil will be the most affected, and the least affluent countries will bear the first wave of economic onslaught as they will be the least able to afford the higher prices. Affluent countries like the US will have conservation and energy efficiency to initially fall back upon, followed by a decline in the standard of living. The poorer countries will just do without, having no huge gluttonous fat belly to sustain them for the harsh winter of oil decline.

[grillzilla]

I gotta say Monte that the most glaring ommision from your poll was FUEL.

I realize that fuel is encompassed in travel, but really the most obvious way to cut back on expenses if fuel is expensive is to just use less. Myself I traded in my 14 year-old truck for a hybrid. For me peak is now.
I like to barbeque, a lot! (hence my name). It takes a while to heat the beast up, so if gas prices get too high I will use another form of cooking more, to save on fuel.

Since your poll didn't include fuel as an option, I chose groceries. I tend to spend rather freely on wine so I could cut back there if I needed. My job is not threatened by PO so things will have to get pretty wild before I have to cut back significantly on anything.

[rwwff]

I'd have to say FUEL as well. Travel seems more aligned with vacation or business trips as opposed to driving to the grocery store to grab a loaf of bread. One is tax deductible or reimbursable, the other is likely only a tiny fraction of total mileage.

That said, gasoline would need to be vastly more expensive before it would truly start to dominate the cost of driving. People like to grouse about the cost of gas, but traffic doesn't seem to be much dampened by the price. Even in my 20+mpg small truck, fuel cost is going to be less than 15 cents per mile, while the other costs are close to 30 cents per mile. I hardly see how it matters whether I write the check to Shell Oil, or Bob's Bank, Joe's Fixit, State Farm Insurance, and Texas DOT; those costs are every bit as real and the majority are mileage based. To put it in perspect, at today's costs, my truck costs about 45 cents a mile to drive; at $2 a gallon, its 40 cents a mile; and just to be obnoxious, at $5 a gallon, its still only 55 cents a mile. Hardly a budget shattering increase for Sam MiddleClass.

Even in the worst case, a good portion of the miles I drive, I could take my bicycle if gas cost was high enough to motivate me and provide a legitimate sounding excuse. I think that price point is somewhere around $10 a gallon, or 50 cents a mile for fuel.

[Revi]

Gas is one of those things that is like a "giffen good". In the Irish potato famine there were only so many potatoes around, everyone needed them, so the price kept going up. What were they going to do? Stop eating? People will pay more, and grumble more. We are all so car dependent that we don't know any other way of living. Apparently we are setting new records in the amount of gasoline and oil consumed, even though the price is up considerably.

as Daddy Yankee says "Dame la gasolina!"

[ohanian]

Upwards trend in oil prices.

[rwwff]

I dunno Revi, if the price were high enough, people would act to adjust to the situation. The reality is that at $3 a gallon, people complain, but they still buy vehicles that get poor fuel economy.

Personally, I could bike instead of drive more, or I could consider buying a 40mpg car; but the price of fuel isn't anywhere near high enough to justify a new purchase. Maybe in another five years, it'll be time to buy a new vehicle, and perhaps by then we'll have those 60mph euro turbodiesel critters available..

So its not like potatoes in Ireland; while there is certainly a limit to existing supply, people are consuming much more than they require; sorta like someone eating 6,000 calories a day. If the price were high enough, it could motivate them to eat less, and they'd be no worse for the change.

[Zardoz]

Three-dollar-a-gallon gas is seriously affecting a very large number of people. Four dollars will make for some real hardship:

As gas prices go up, impact trickles down

Imagine what five dollars will do.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'I') dunno Revi, if the price were high enough, people would act to adjust to the situation. The reality is that at $3 a gallon, people complain, but they still buy vehicles that get poor fuel economy.

Personally, I could bike instead of drive more, or I could consider buying a 40mpg car; but the price of fuel isn't anywhere near high enough to justify a new purchase. Maybe in another five years, it'll be time to buy a new vehicle, and perhaps by then we'll have those 60mph euro turbodiesel critters available..

So its not like potatoes in Ireland; while there is certainly a limit to existing supply, people are consuming much more than they require; sorta like someone eating 6,000 calories a day. If the price were high enough, it could motivate them to eat less, and they'd be no worse for the change.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')I agree completely. Maybe the price still isn't high enough for people to get it and change. Change really only comes from crisis. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. People don't realize that it's broke yet. We made a bunch of changes thanks to peak oil in the last few years. At first I wondered if we were doing it too soon. Now they seem like the right move because they are really fun, and save us money. Click on the pics for more info:

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm

[Revi]

I like the bike! I'm looking for a trailer for mine. I plan on rigging up a small charging system with a soft solar panel that can charge one battery while the other is being used. It would be a great travelling rig with space for camping gear or groceries. Peak oil can be fun!

[cr0bar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'T')hree-dollar-a-gallon gas is seriously affecting a very large number of people. Four dollars will make for some real hardship:

As gas prices go up, impact trickles down

Imagine what five dollars will do.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '[')img]http://static.flickr.com/55/137335481_484e269b96_o.jpg[/img]

Upwards trend in oil prices.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') I like the graph! It looks like it'll keep going up until 2009, when it tops out around $120 a barrel and we are all broke so we can't buy anything anymore. Then it'll go down slightly because we'll all be walking. (or biking!) It looks like a very likely scenario.

[SoothSayer]

I just wish that the ohanian graph hadn't been posted in almost every thread here ... it's like spam

A thumbnail image plus a link could have been less intrusive.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'I') just wish that the ohanian graph hadn't been posted in almost every thread here ... it's like spam

A thumbnail image plus a link could have been less intrusive.

[lottopol]

The key is how governments react.
The only risk to industrial civilization is bad economics. For example if oil went to $1,000 per barrel, rich people and rich countries would be inconvenienced but would otherwise do just fine. However, if oil went to $100 and a misguided congress were to impose price controls that essentially said it was illegal to sell oil or products at a price greater than $90, it would be catastrophic.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '.')..
The end of cheap fossil fuels is going to have some dire repercussions. I'm not sure how accurate mine might be, but it sure is a place to start a discussion. Let's try to focus on the near-term effects. We are seeing some of them already in inflation and rising interest rates. And let's assume we don't have a Murphy's Law event right away to start a domino effect that leads to chaos, ok?