[holmes]

I have just one question for the cornholes and BAU folks:

WHERE ARE YOU GOING TO GET THE BLING FOR EVERYTHING?

The tax base is dwindling.
The immigrants coming in are poverty level and held up by welfare.
Resources will be used to just keep the hordes above water.

Are you really that insulated and elite living in Ivory towers where you have never faced the reality that is growing?

This is some twisted shit. Maybe its a narccissitic issue?
Shit they dont have enough resources to finish the nuke plant up here now.
We are reaching limits already.

[holmes]

everything you see has been built in a virgin resource rich A grade resource oil based world. there were lots of taxpayers making good to great money. supporting the building of the infrastructure you see now. Population was low.
How can an entire infrastructure be built with a small tax base, wages stagnating or dropping. 300,000,000 will be 500,000,000 - 700,000,000 in 20 years.
Your logic is species.
Please clue us in here.
The only way is for gubmint to drain the entire chest and war for resources.

where is the bling coming from. It will be exponentially more expensive than the oil age. And the alternatives energy are not even given.

[Revi]

I agree completely with Holmes. It is always later than you think. The time to do things is now. Solarize while you still have any expendable income! The inflation rate is now 20%. We will get a 1% raise if we are lucky enough to keep our jobs. That means you will have to get by with half of your income in less than 3 years. Plan accordingly. Shrink your energy use now! We got a solar hot water system installed while we still had the money to do it last year. Copper pipe is going up. Next year may be too late. Buy energy star appliances, small cars and woodstoves while you can.

[holmes]

I agree revi. Its up to individuals and or groups to pool resources atr this point. Also the massive centralized Ponzi projects like the ones proposed around the world are not the answer.
Its proven that when people own their own resources like their energy they take care of it and their communities and environement. So like in Africa they need to build thermal mass developement retrofitted with their own windmills, solar panels, compost toilets, etc.. The communities take care of it all and manucfacture the batteries and the maintenance as well. and the people need to own the hydro production. It really about building from the ground up. Not the way we are doing it now, and it saves in the long. We are doing it all backwards.
Build the base layer and then see what needs to be done.
The cornucopia future is not affordable. and lets say we did build it all we wouldnt have the resources to even run it and enjoy any of it.

[Revi]

I just got a piece of land that has 600 kw of hydroelectric potential. Nobody else wanted it because they can't see what's coming. There are still some possibilities out there. Now (or a year ago) is the time to secure energy properties. Woodlots, hydro and even a house with solar possibilities are all important to get now, before everyone else realizes what's going on. I think of it like being in a crowded place and seeing a fire break out. Put it out if you can, but if you can't, head for the doors.
The fire is peak oil. It's too late to put it out, so the only other option is to head for the outside. The outside is a solar powered existence outside of the major cities. It's not as comfy as it was inside the building, but it's not burning up either.

[Revi]

There are still some possibilities out there. Now (or a year ago) is the time to secure energy properties. Woodlots, hydro and even a house with solar possibilities are all important to get now, before everyone else realizes what's going on. I think of it like being in a crowded place and seeing a fire break out. Put it out if you can, but if you can't, head for the doors. The fire is peak oil. It's too late to put it out, so the only other option is to head for the outside. The outside is a solar powered existence outside of the major cities. It's not as comfy as it was inside the building, but it's not burning up either.

[lastchance]

As this is my first post at PO, I will try to stay on topic about the "Near Term Economic Effects."

I do not possess a crystal ball so it is all based on my fifty nine years of life's experiences and understanding of human nature.

I have an acquaintance who is the Senior Maintenance Engineer for the Premcor Refinery in Memphis. We were having a friendly conversation last week about the coming "oil shortage" and one of the points he mentioned was that oil most certainly be in the $80 range by August. This means gas will be $3.00 plus Nationwide.

I believe that we are one natural disaster or one major terrorist attack away from $100 - $120 oil. This will put gas in the $5.00 range.

Depending on where you live will determine how you are affected by the crisis soon to arrive.

I well remember Jesse Jackson and the others calling for "Gas Stamps" to go along with "Food Stamps" for the poor during the Arab Oil Embargo. That idea didn't get traction then and most certainly won't gain widespread support this final time around.

As Petroleum prices increase and subsequently the price everything else rises as a result, it will be those lowest on life's food chain who will suffer first. The uneducated, undereducated, illiterate, untrainable and unemployable who are mostly located in the Urban areas close to the "Welfare Offices" who will feel the pain first.

The economy will begin to shed workers in such areas as travel, motels, hotels, fast food restaurants, Walmarts, auto manufacturing, spas, tanning shops, hairstylists, yard services and the other areas where education is not a major factor. These newly unemployed and the 12-20 Million "Illegals" will compete with those newly severed from the teat of the "Welfare State" for
whatever employment is available. This is a recipe for "Civil Unrest" which is a polite term for Rioting, looting and other assorted mayhem.

I will digress here for a moment. The Federal Government is "overextended" as we all know. Unsustainable borrowing, debt maintenance and 70 plus Trillion in Unfunded Obligations it cannot possibly pay. That is the short version and I will stop there on economics.

A "Rich Nation" can afford "Affirmative Action", "Set Asides", and "Quotas". It can afford "Busing" and other Utopian schemes for supposed Social Equality. A "Poor Nation" can afford none of these. As the near term unemployment picture starts looking bleak there will be a corresponding increase in "Welfare Benefits" until such time a Fiscal Sanity arrives and the National Leadership, in an attempt to stave off the inevitable, returns the National Government to its Constitutionally mandated core functions and pushes Welfare off on the States.

As the "Tax Base" both Nationally and Locally grows smaller, Governments will shed their charitable obligations. The Bureacracy at all levels will do whatever is necessary to prevent its own demise. It is human nature.

The Urban areas will be hit the hardest. Cincinnati, Pittsburg, Detroit, Oakland, Newark, Memphis, Atlanta and Columbus to name a few will go up in flames. The Majority of the Nation who will also be suffering due to their own bankruptcies, downsizing, job loss, divorce and other hardships will not be so tolerent on those who break the laws and other transgressions against societal norms. These "Insurrections" will be met with Brute Force. Thousands upon thousands will die as a result.

The Mexican Border will look like the Border between East and West Germany during the Cold War. Millions of mines, watch towers and armed military patrols. Millions of starving Mexicans will do what millions of starving people have done for millenia, try to go where there is money, jobs, shelter and food. They will be killed trying until such time as the number of dead reaches the point that the remainder see the futility in continuing such an endeavor.

I suspect that it will get worse before it gets better.

Darwin always wins in the end.

[Revi]

Last Chance, great post. Don't get so maudlin. I've been aware of peak oil for a while now, and have run all of these things through to their logical conclusions. I'm not saying you're wrong. Still, the sun is shining and it's not too bad a day today. What more can we ask for? The only sure thing is today. Tomorrow is an unknown. Your personal situation is what matters. I don't like the big cities as a place to live, but there may be an ok life in a small city or a town someplace for a while.

[lastchance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'L')ast Chance, great post. Don't get so maudlin. I've been aware of peak oil for a while now, and have run all of these things through to their logical conclusions. I'm not saying you're wrong. Still, the sun is shining and it's not too bad a day today. What more can we ask for? The only sure thing is today. Tomorrow is an unknown. Your personal situation is what matters. I don't like the big cities as a place to live, but there may be an ok life in a small city or a town someplace for a while.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lastchance', 'A')s this is my first post at PO, I will try to stay on topic about the "Near Term Economic Effects."

I suspect that it will get worse before it gets better.

Darwin always wins in the end.

[prepforfuture]

Here is one near term economic impact: Customers who have financed their fuel inefficient vehicles will turn in their vehicles (voluntary repossession) and the banks will take large amounts of losses.

In my former life in the auto finance world, the amount of auto loans that are approved with negative equity is staggering. The ability to "roll over" the negative equity (amount still owing on the former auto loan) into a new loan is very common in the captive finance companies (Ford Motor Credit Corp., GMAC, etc), national banks, local banks, and credit unions. This negative equity addition makes the new loan over book value to the amount of 100 to 130% of new car invoice or Kelly Blue Book (NADA) used car value. A massive wave of voluntary repossessions will send immediate shock waves into the credit world. Three big impacts:

1. The negative credit rating will negatively impact the consumer ability to borrow additional money by higher cost of funds (15%+++ interest rates). A little known fact is that when you are late on one loan in your credit bureau, other lenders (credit card companies) have clauses in their contracts that state they can raise your interest rate on their loans, even if they are not past due. Credit card balances will increase as the interest rates rack up.

2. Banks will immediately tighten their underwriting policies and logically lend to the consumers with the best credit. Consumers with no-so-great credit (500-630 credit scores) will require a substantial down payment. The ability of credit challenged consumer to enter new loans will diminish with less extra money in savings (see point #1 above). The money flow will tighten.

3. Credit Unions have increased in the number of institutions and customer base. It seems every business or public institution can open a credit union. For example, Portland Teachers Credit Union in Portland, Oregon offers membership to anyone who has ever been in school in the state of Oregon. Here is my point: if you are late on a car loan at most credit unions, they can tap into your other accounts to pay for the late debt or the entire loan balance. Check the fine print of a local credit union contract and see the problem. The check and saving balances would be used to pay the cost of the voluntary repossessions of the respective customers. Not good if you are on direct deposit and have auto bill pay attached to those accounts.

How many people and families are living paycheck to paycheck in the Unite States? Higher gas prices ($5.00 per gallon as stated in previous post) would put many fuel inefficient vehicles back on the banks/credit unions parking lots. What are your thoughts?

[Revi]

We may be able to pick up a farm truck very cheaply soon if you are right. I talk to people and they aren't ready to give up their gas guzzlers yet. I was talking to a colleague yesterday, and they were talking about how things don't add up for them and I suggested shrinking their cars. She wasn't willing to consider shrinking to a smaller car. We did it and saved around $2000 a year. The cost of everything is less. Tires, repairs, gas and even insurance is less. We took a beating on the trade, since we did it at car dealerships, but are running cheaper cars essentially for free. Why not?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e may be able to pick up a farm truck very cheaply soon if you are right. I talk to people and they aren't ready to give up their gas guzzlers yet. I was talking to a colleague yesterday, and they were talking about how things don't add up for them and I suggested shrinking their cars. She wasn't willing to consider shrinking to a smaller car. We did it and saved around $2000 a year. The cost of everything is less. Tires, repairs, gas and even insurance is less. We took a beating on the trade, since we did it at car dealerships, but are running cheaper cars essentially for free. Why not?

[killJOY]

Would you believe I've ( I should say "we've" ) cut everything on that list, and yet life here is sweet?

We don't travel: we like it here at home with our gardens, fields, animals and food crops. I could do without the nearby road and the traffic noise, but what ya gonna do?

Groceries? What we don't grow we buy through a food cooperative, in large quantities. We're still stuck buying detergents, catfood and assorted items at the supermarket, but it's down to a bare minimum. I've not had to use a grocery cart ("wagon," "carriage") for literally years. We've reduced shopping to what fits in a string bag.

"Capital items?" Does that included rusty old farm implements?

"Recreation?" Who needs that, when you've got a hoe and a fiddle?

Restaurants. Wouldn't be caught dead in one. Except if we have company and they want to "eat out." Then I go alive.

"Investments." Ha ha.



Sometimes I feel like I'm from another planet.

[Revi]

I agree with you Killjoy. Life here in Maine is not too bad. We heat with wood, eat stuff from our garden and maple syrup from our trees. What's the problem? Money is hard to come by around here. Too many people are lured by no down payment junk like snowmobiles and four wheelers. Otherwise we get by ok. Not getting rich, but not starving either. I am afraid of what's coming, however. The small amount of oil we buy each year to help heat the house is going up by a third. It'll be even worse next year. We drive less than others and use less fuel oil, but even so it is becoming noticeable. Others who are not peak oil aware are really feeling the pain. The cost of living is rising. The storm is coming. Time to get ready.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am afraid of what's coming, however. The small amount of oil we buy each year to help heat the house is going up by a third. It'll be even worse next year. We drive less than others and use less fuel oil, but even so it is becoming noticeable.

[Revi]

Use it up, wear it out, make it do, do without.

At least we're used to living closer to the source of our food and energy. It won't be such a shock when we get less of them and less money.

[grabby]

gET USED TO TOMOROW.
tHROW AWAY ALL CREDIT CARDS NOW, IT IS A WASTE OF MONEY AND TIME, DO NOT TAKE OUT ANY LOANS.
sELL WHAT YOU HAVE TO PAY YOUR LOANS.
AGAIN
THROW AWAY ALL CREDIT CARDS NEVER BUY ON CREDIT AGAIN GET USED TO IT.

[Fergus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('prepforfuture', 'H')ere is one near term economic impact: Customers who have financed their fuel inefficient vehicles will turn in their vehicles (voluntary repossession) and the banks will take large amounts of losses.

In my former life in the auto finance world, the amount of auto loans that are approved with negative equity is staggering. The ability to "roll over" the negative equity (amount still owing on the former auto loan) into a new loan is very common in the captive finance companies (Ford Motor Credit Corp., GMAC, etc), national banks, local banks, and credit unions. This negative equity addition makes the new loan over book value to the amount of 100 to 130% of new car invoice or Kelly Blue Book (NADA) used car value. A massive wave of voluntary repossessions will send immediate shock waves into the credit world. Three big impacts:

1. The negative credit rating will negatively impact the consumer ability to borrow additional money by higher cost of funds (15%+++ interest rates). A little known fact is that when you are late on one loan in your credit bureau, other lenders (credit card companies) have clauses in their contracts that state they can raise your interest rate on their loans, even if they are not past due. Credit card balances will increase as the interest rates rack up.

2. Banks will immediately tighten their underwriting policies and logically lend to the consumers with the best credit. Consumers with no-so-great credit (500-630 credit scores) will require a substantial down payment. The ability of credit challenged consumer to enter new loans will diminish with less extra money in savings (see point #1 above). The money flow will tighten.

3. Credit Unions have increased in the number of institutions and customer base. It seems every business or public institution can open a credit union. For example, Portland Teachers Credit Union in Portland, Oregon offers membership to anyone who has ever been in school in the state of Oregon. Here is my point: if you are late on a car loan at most credit unions, they can tap into your other accounts to pay for the late debt or the entire loan balance. Check the fine print of a local credit union contract and see the problem. The check and saving balances would be used to pay the cost of the voluntary repossessions of the respective customers. Not good if you are on direct deposit and have auto bill pay attached to those accounts.

How many people and families are living paycheck to paycheck in the Unite States? Higher gas prices ($5.00 per gallon as stated in previous post) would put many fuel inefficient vehicles back on the banks/credit unions parking lots. What are your thoughts?

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'g')ET USED TO TOMOROW.
tHROW AWAY ALL CREDIT CARDS NOW, IT IS A WASTE OF MONEY AND TIME, DO NOT TAKE OUT ANY LOANS.
sELL WHAT YOU HAVE TO PAY YOUR LOANS.
AGAIN
THROW AWAY ALL CREDIT CARDS NEVER BUY ON CREDIT AGAIN GET USED TO IT.