by coyote » Sun 02 Apr 2006, 15:40:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'P')ersonally I think Jevons paradox (sometimes called rebound effect) breaks down in a world where net available energy supply is reducing. If conservation of energy doesn't increase your wealth (since energy price has gone up) and/or if conservation doesn't reduce the price of energy (since energy total supply has fallen by at least as much as you conserved) then Jevons paradox simply doesn't apply post peak.
No, I think Aaron's right about that. Markets are fluid systems, and prices are relative. Think of it this way: conservation will always make the price of a commodity
lower than it would have been otherwise. Which affects how it's traded, what the spread against the currency and other commodities looks like -- and how much is consumed, by whomever can afford it. Including, in this case, the other end-products of oil as well as the stuff itself. Jevon's Paradox changes a little after the peak, but still applies. There will be less oil available in ten years than there is now. We're pretty sure of that, right? Currently, Jevon's Paradox says that we as a society will always consume all that we want, even if some people conserve. Post-peak, Jevon's Paradox says that
we will always consume all that is available, even if some people conserve. Given the current paradigm, of course. I agree with Aaron's assessment of Jevon's Paradox, just not with his conclusion that attempting a change is pointless and harmful.