by The_Toecutter » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 01:25:30
Response to Montequest:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')A house built upon a foundation of sand shall not stand."
Ours was a house of cards built on a wooden table. Time to glue them all together lest they collapse.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oesn't matter. But in this case, it is lack of spare capacity, refining capacity and the growth of China and India. Also, infrastructure peak as a result of anticipating peak oil.
Yes, but growth is only part of the picture. 3% demand increase per year under a given fixed supply was needed for a 40% price increase over two years, with the prices in fuel having stabilized to an extent.
A 3% decline combined with the increasing demand, OTOH, and you have a SHTF scenario. This scenario is invevitable if nothing is done to change our current path. The unknown is how long it will take to achieve its affects, assuming this scenario is already in its beginning stages.
If we have 5 more years of pre collapse, that's plenty of time to get a good buffer in, only if the solutions are implemented. Otherwise, that's it.
If the fat lady has started to sing, how long will she keep singing?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ut the fat and you cut the jobs that provide the fat. Who absorbs the loss? How will it be distributed equally?
What waste doesn't provide someone a job?
People had jobs before this waste existed. Less profits were made in exchange, and less growth was generated. There were also less taxes and such.
We could just as well keep those people working, making X amount per year, but working less hours with less work to be done. Cut the dividends.
cutting the fat first and foremost entails cutting the ability of a few rich investors and management to make the amount of cash they normally do, or when not making cash, cutting their ability to line themselves with a golden parachute at the expense of everyone else.
Further, there are lots of jobs to be done in regards to scaling up and maintaining renewable energy, mass transit, ect., repairing our environment, farming(should we end wasteful factory farming), and in repairing our infrastructure. But, if profits and greed win out over all else, this will simply not happen.
Moving to fuel efficient cars, mass transit, efficient homes, more efficient appliances, consumer goods designed to last longer and be repairable, means less money would also be needed for an equivalent living standard, to go hand in hand with less money generated to the economy.
It's just that our economic system doesn't work that way, reliant on constant growth and all, and the power elite don't want to disrupt their status quo, as they're making out like bandits and are likely to do so even more post peak(they own most of the gold and tangible assets). Our politicians and corporate executives have their golden parachutes ready. That's part of the fat that could easily be cut, and a very sizable chunk at that.
The only way we can keep a good standard of living in a sustainable, post-peak world is to end the wealth gap and end the income gap to a large extent. We cannot have a few top tier people hording all the wealth, making the decisions, and making grossly high amounts of income relative to everyone else, otherwise those jobs will indeed need to be cut to compensate for lost revenue. We simply don't have the resources to have both a middle class and a power elite any longer. Time to shred the golden parachutes, or regress back to feudalism.
OTOH, if our society becomes more egalitarian and mindful of the implications it has on its environment, we could work out a solution. This is also part of the powerdown, something TPTB don't like, they'd rather wage resource wars and see some returns on those defense contractors and oil companies they are vested in...
Which will future it be? Which would you rather have? Are you willing to work for it, even at the last minute and even if the return of investment to you is likely to yield nothing?
It doesn't look cheery, and your analysis of just what faces and its magnitude is correct. But it also remains that we may still be able to work around the problem, it's just that those in control
refuse to do so. Time to start pushing them around and tackling this problem head on.
There might be a freight train on a collision course at 80 mph with a wrecked car stuck in the tracks and the occupants trapped. Perhaps it's too late to slow it to a stop, and there is only one person on board the train, at the helm of it. If we do the right thing, we can derail it, or we can let it pass us up and crash.
My money is on the possibility that it will crash. But that is not the scenario I'd like to see, and thus an attempt needs to be made to prevent it if there is to be any chance, however small.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson