[PWALPOCO]

Another possibility then....

there may already some kind of secret solution to all our "lack of (cheap) oil" problems and the US (and allies ?) will do their utmost to ensure that the (cheap?) oil is taken out of the picture ASAP.

This will prevent other nations from developing said solution and therefore when the time comes to employ said solution , only the US (and allies) will have it ?

The debts and so on would be a non issue , just refuse to pay it off ? Its only paper , the paper can be printed a thousand times , the oil can only be used once. And if youre the one with the "solution" , are you going to worry about nations that dont ?

Darned Kyoto , would just slow emissions and help the others figure out the "solution" before the oil ran out. So would conservation ! Cant have that ! And stop spending ? Hell no ! Suck the other nations savings dry !

While I dont think there is an actual "solution" , I have seen and heard many incredible things in my lifetime , so should it be impossible for there to be one ?

I think Man would have to pour all his hate and greed into a plan that would allow one part of the world to survive in a 21st century environment while the rest fell back into poverty and ruin.

I personally beleive mankind is better than that.


Paul

[Wildwell]

'There are winners- just not ordinary people, the third world countries and world peace. So $100+ per barrel oil here we come!'

lol! So why is the Middle East with 63% of the world's oil in a state of permanent turmoil? Now that democracy has been imposed on certain countries, isn't it ironic that 'the wrong people' have been voted in? Benefit ordinary people! Pah! There are certain corporations making so much money they don't know what to do with it, while some people (me included) are wondering how to pay the bills. Crime is taking over the streets. I was listening to a radio phone in last night: To the question, should the BNP be banned, 98% of people voted, in a huge response, NO. Why? People's civil rights and quality of life is slowly going down the pan. Freedom of speech is already becoming a scarce commodity let alone freedom of choice...

The world is on the brink of Armageddon frankly, this Iranian question could spark a massive escalation which might be unstoppable.

The plan (if there is one) is to make as much money for certain corporations and people as possible, and it's only a matter of time before people rebel...These governments and companies get so cock-sure of themselves, they forget they were put there by the people through voting and purchase decisions, they can equally be removed..

[mekrob]

What does BNP stand for?

[Wildwell]

http://www.bnp.org.uk/

They have some, er, interesting policies: Anti-globalisation, Anti-corporate profit, banning political correctness and, the controversial one, ending race discrimination laws.

Its rights AND responsibilities for everyone as far as I'm concerned, so I don't support them. But I do support their right to an opinion, especially as in this country we allow people to parade the streets with threats on banners.

[cornholio]

Thanks for the thoughts... Yes, it is wishful thinking to believe there is a grand "plan," but if you are into conspiracies enough to believe that there was a strategy behind the fall of the solviet union then it is possible... It is a further flight of fancy though to imagine that that plan is carefully designed to bring the best outcome for me (the little guy), and a another big leap to imagine there is a techno-fix to our energy problem waiting in the wings...unless, of course something really useful was found on the Roswell UFO (that's my greatest hope : ) .

As the media and government serve the interests of a smaller elite, and as media and government can push our behavior towards consumption or conservation (using media message, money supply, gov. spending) it is not inconcievable that there is a "plan" that brought us where we are. There are also ways to curtail this consumerism if need be (again, thru media message, recession). The million dollar question is ?is there an intelligence behind this plan that is concerned about anything more than short term profit?. If so, then there is a possibility of hope. If not, then we are in trouble.
____________________________________________
Nothing does so establish the mind amidst the rollings and turbulence of present things, as a look above them and a look beyond them,--above them, to the steady and good hand by which they are ruled; and beyond them, to the sweet and beautiful end to which, by that hand, they will be brought. - Jeremy Taylor (I know, its about religion, but it works on another level : )

[mpg]

"Perhaps we are about to see the "swiftboating" of Ahmadinejad in the world media."

Well they somehow were able to make a absentee, boozing, draftdodging national guardsman appear more military than a preening swiftboat captain under fire. But could they really be able to a religous zealot, hostage taking, nuclear bomb making, holocaust denying headline grabber appear unstable and threatening?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PWALPOCO', 'I') think Man would have to pour all his hate and greed into a plan that would allow one part of the world to survive in a 21st century environment while the rest fell back into poverty and ruin. I personally beleive mankind is better than that.

[PWALPOCO]

Ludi

In the current state of affairs , we are seeing how some of the devloping nations are gradually hauling themselves up , improving themselves and gaining a better standing in the world. The tiger economies , the rise of China and India are examples of what I mean and in the absence of PO issues I would expect that trend to continue.


You have quoted me writing in the context of the scenario being discussed which was that the US and/or priviliged others would deliberatly consume as much of the remaining (cheap) oil as possible as quickly as possible knowing they had a make beleive "solution" when the oil shortages came.

This would prevent the "enemy" from having the resources necessary to also develop the make beleive "solution" and hence once the oil was gone the US and allies would be the only functioning first world nations left.

While the current developed/developing/less developed world is not perfect it is viewed by many to be the "normal" state of affairs. I doubt many would consider the state of things to be "normal" if former developed/developing nations were driven into third world status. This is the kind of outcome I felt humanity would try to prevent happening.

Paul

PS
You asked if there was any evidence to show we would make do with less so "they" can have more. My job is under threat because the factory I work in would be more cost effective in India or China or Korea or Africa. So , someone else can have my Salary , and that person can spend his salary at his local markets , and those local markets can pay their people who can buy other stuff .......... etc etc.

That would seem to mean that I would have to make do with less , so "they" can have more. Im sure thousands of people can tell you the same story themselves. That would seem to be evidence enough to me, the "must do better in 2006" letter from the company management looks real to me at any rate.

[mistel]

I think the original post is very interesting. My take on it is, if it does help save America from peak oil, it is just dumb luck, not some grand plan

Lets assume you were the President and you were really only interested in high oil prices so your friends and family in the oil business could profit. What would you want? Oil prices as high as possible without tanking the stock market. Looks like he's doing a good job.

[Strelnikov]

I have had similar thoughts along the lines you present in trying to make sense of the Governments willful ignorance of peak oil. While this strategy may have worked in the 70's, I do not see how it is viable today.

The problem, as I see it, is the balance of trade. In the 70's, we were one of the worlds largest oil producers, and had a vital manufacturing base. Today, we depend on other nations for a significant quantity of finished goods, and are a significant importer of oil. At some point, don't we have to sell a quantity of goods overseas of equal value to that which we are importing?

As Stein said, things that cannot go on forever, don't.

[evilgenius]

The answer to the question as to why there is no infrastructure in the US in the face of peak oil even though past policy indicates that the leadership here has seen it coming is simple, the US will not produce an elite corps of KGB, SS style cohorts amongst the general population without scarcity! The sheep that make up the general US population can be led to vote any way that the media desires, but they won't put their lives on the line, and that is what those who would be the enforcers would be doing, without good reason. That reason would be scarcity. An example would be if instead of driving 75 miles a day you are only allowed to drive 75 miles a week. Okay, what happens if you live 30 miles from the nearest job. Now let's suppose you are fucked unless you volunteer to join the enforcers. If you join the enforcers you can drive 75 miles a day again.

Fascism in the US can ony get so far if it is implemented solely via the financial system. To become fully implemented fascism will require a corps of enforcers. Uncle Sam wants you!

[galacticsurfer]

Luckystar and other interested in astrology I put a link for USA horoscope below

http://www.stenudd.com/horoscopics/horoscopes/usa-2.htm

On the whole idea of a country having a horoscope I am uncertain. I mean a person has a soul upon which the planets have influence. I do however see that the ideas upon which America is based are still in the constitution written at that time and that all things are based on cycles. When pluto after 250 years retruns to the same place as in the USA birth chart this influence will be felt much more than in a country with a medieval tradition. America comes out of the age of enlightenment when people rejected the kings rights and the dominance of the clergy and started thinking completely freely-at least some people- this resulted in the revolutions in USA/France. Radical religious ideas right now(Bush and religious right as parallel to muslim fundamentalists) are to be expected with pluto in sagittarius as well as the spread of radical new ideas and teachings similar to the enlightenment(Peak oil/global warming anybody?). What can we expect with pluto in capricorn 2008-2024 and just after saturn/Jupiter conjunction end of 2021 in aquarius? Capricorn is ruled by Saturn which means hardship and pluto destroys everything at its roots. This looks bad for any system which is wobbly. After 2024 Pluto goes into aquarius too and this could mean a revolution after such terrible hardship coming from the peak oil period of hardship(Pluto in capricorn) just ahead.

QUOTE from following web site

http://www.star4cast.com/index2f.asp?pa ... p%3Fid%3D5

"The Real Test: Pluto in Capricorn: 2008 to 2024
Pluto, planet of transformation, deconstruction and reconstruction will move into Capricorn, sign of established government and money making enterprises, to stay till 2024. It will trigger the American chart’s cardinal T square from 2009 opposing Venus, Jupiter, the Sun and squaring Saturn through the following seven years. It may start with an optimistic push for success or power as the over confident Pluto Jupiter affect kicks in. But following behind will be a dismantling of old structures, a reducing to ashes to clear the ground for the phoenix to arise. Though it will not be a fast process. Pluto has not been in Capricorn since the 18th century when the American War of Independence occurred, so the USA is coming full circle, in some sense back to where it began. Sometimes these major influences bring low what rose to prominence on the previous cycle. The Ottoman Empire grew to greatness under Suleiman the Magnificent when Pluto was in Capricorn in 1515 to 1530, as he took over Arabia, captured Belgrade and attacked Vienna. Next time round for Pluto in Cap. in 1768, the Ottoman Empire lost Crimea, the effective end of the great empire which Suleiman created outside the Middle East."

That was not bad analysis from Astrologist Marjorie Orr. What is in store for USA and her global system now ruling the world de facto? Will Pluto destroy it in her regular cyclic fashion just like the weather and the tide tearing apart our sand castles? most likely.

[eric_b]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'T')he answer to the question as to why there is no infrastructure in the US in the face of peak oil even though past policy indicates that the leadership here has seen it coming is simple, the US will not produce an elite corps of KGB, SS style cohorts amongst the general population without scarcity! The sheep that make up the general US population can be led to vote any way that the media desires, but they won't put their lives on the line, and that is what those who would be the enforcers would be doing, without good reason. That reason would be scarcity. An example would be if instead of driving 75 miles a day you are only allowed to drive 75 miles a week. Okay, what happens if you live 30 miles from the nearest job. Now let's suppose you are fucked unless you volunteer to join the enforcers. If you join the enforcers you can drive 75 miles a day again.

Fascism in the US can ony get so far if it is implemented solely via the financial system. To become fully implemented fascism will require a corps of enforcers. Uncle Sam wants you!

[ubercynicmeister]

I dunno if this is the right place for this, but here goes:

An exhaustive report in December on CIA operatives who staffed the so-called "rendition" program, secretly transferring suspected terrorists from U.S. custody to foreign governments, revealed sometimes-sloppy undercover work of the agents. In one rendition, in Milan, Italy, covert agents failed to remove their cell phones' batteries, thus enabling them to be electronically tracked even though the phones were off.

Also, one clandestine operative left a clear trail of her whereabouts because, even though she booked herself at foreign hotels under aliases, she insisted that frequent- flier miles earned at the hotels be credited to her personal, non- secret frequent-flier account. [Chicago Tribune, 12-25-05]

For those worried about the CIA being a threat, please read the above and try to imagine how such bumbling halfwits could pose a threat to anyone but themselves. Remember: the CIA failed to predict the building of the Berlin Wall; told everyone that Ho Chi Minh was a "push-over"; failed to predict the Cuban Revolution; failed to predict the Cuban Missile Crisis (even though it was caused, primarily, by US missiles in Iran being aimed at Russia); failed to predict the fall of the regime of Cambodian Prince Prince Norodom Sihanouk (hope I've spelt that right) thus allowing the Khmer Rouge to begin the bloodiest slaughter of civilians since the 2nd World War (only surpassed by ->) ; failed to predict Rwanda's genocidal civil conflict (which exceeded Adolf Hitler's record tally of murders of innocent people in one 24 hour period); told everyone that Somalia would be a push-over; failed to predict the collapse of the Berlin Wall; failed to predict the collapse of the Soviet Union (even though it's own operatives were trying to tell the higher-ups that it was coming); failed to keep an eye on Afghanistan; failed to keep an eye on Al Qaeeda (even though it had attacked US interests before 9/11); YUP, what a group of unmitigated incompetents the CIA has been.

The same goes for FEMA, and most other Govt depts. Stop worrying about these guys - they couldn't tie their own SHOELACES without a road-map, a guide, and a couple of assistants.

[Cynus]

http://www.bbspot.com/News/2004/04/maxwell_smart.html
Maxwell Smart Testifies Before Congress on Intelligence Lapses

Washington DC - CIA director Maxwell Smart testified before congress today on recent intelligence lapses within the agency. Director Smart's tenure as head of the agency has been marked with controversy. Among other lapses, Smart has insisted the Soviet Union was the most powerful nation on Earth the day before the Berlin Wall fell and that neither Pakistan nor India had nuclear programs just as they both detonated nuclear weapons. Below is a transcript of Smart's testimony.

Smart: Senator, Iraq has nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and the capacity to attack the United States in 45 minutes.

Senator Clinton: Mister Smart, with almost a year spent searching for these weapons of mass destruction and discovering nothing, I find this hard to believe.

Smart: Would you believe weapons of mass destruction related program activity?

Senator Clinton: No.

Smart: Would you believe a junior chemistry set and a guy with a bad cough?

Senator Boxer: Director Smart! This is an intelligence failure of monumental proportions.

Smart: Well don't tell me that Iraq has no WMDs at all!

Senator Boxer: Director Smart, Iraq has no WMDs at all.

Smart: I asked you not to tell me that.

Senator Byrd: It appears that Iraqi scientists who were just reporting that they had WMDs to appease Saddam misled us.

Smart: Ah, the old pretend-we-have-WMD's-to-confuse-intelligence-and- appease-the-dictator trick.

Senator Chafee: Director Smart! Do you realize that you have led the nation into war and caused our nation to invade another sovereign state under false pretenses?

Smart: And loving it!

Senator Reid: How could you miss the possibility that Iraq had no WMDs when the matter of leading the country to war was at stake?

Smart: Missed it by that much.

Senator Nelson: But because of this war, we have lost all international credibility also hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands upon thousands of lives. What do you have to say for yourself?

Smart: Sorry about that chief.

Other intelligence failures Smart reported include:

--The loss of surveillance capability resulting from a camera disguised as a potato chip being eaten by a security guard.
--The lack of human intelligence related to agent 13's inability to extract himself from a rolltop desk in one of Saddam's palaces.
--Difficulty interrogating prisoners due to persistent technical problems with the agency's "Cone of Silence."

[kochevnik]

After almost 6 years of shouting from the rooftops - the terrorists are coming, the terrorists are coming - our idiot in chief can't understand why it might be a bad idea to give control of a bunch of our major ports that process millions of UNSEARCHED cargo containers into this country each year to a company owned by a govt that supported the terrorists that took down the WTC (supposedly).

Talk about coming back to bite you in the ass.

What I find interesting about this is that one of the astrology websites I follow said that this year (2006) was one in which a lot of karma was going to come home to roost - in other words - everyone is going to get just exactly what they deserve this year. With Cheney's version of a drunken Elmer Fudd and now Dubya's 'oh, I was just kidding about those terrorists nu-cularing us' - these guys make Max Smart look like Einstein.

I had a Max Smart lunchbox as a kid. Max was the greatest and 99 was HOT !

[ubercynicmeister]

Hi kochevnik

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:

After almost 6 years of shouting from the rooftops - the terrorists are coming, the terrorists are coming - our idiot in chief can't understand why it might be a bad idea to give control of a bunch of our major ports that process millions of UNSEARCHED cargo containers into this country each year to a company owned by a govt that supported the terrorists that took down the WTC (supposedly).

Talk about coming back to bite you in the ass.

What I find interesting about this is that one of the astrology websites I follow said that this year (2006) was one in which a lot of karma was going to come home to roost - in other words - everyone is going to get just exactly what they deserve this year. With Cheney's version of a drunken Elmer Fudd and now Dubya's 'oh, I was just kidding about those terrorists nu-cularing us' - these guys make Max Smart look like Einstein.

[lutherquick]

Gee, what's all the fuss? I think it would be a great idea to make the next leader of the CIA a military man. Many in DC say it's wrong. However, think about it.

Do you think if the American president was an ex-combat veteran that he would have gone into Iraq over fair tales, delusions and hallucinations of wmd (or eludjng that Saddam did 9/11)?
Bet your ass if the leader of America had some shrapnel in his leg or was actually in a war that the dope would THINK...

Anyway... the way I look at it is, the US is doomed anyway by peak oil... I've always trusted a veteran that had is life at risk at one time. Maybe that's why I feel Bush is a the wrong man to deal with peak oil. Clinton wasn't any better but at least he would have been scared and would have hesitated in attacking Iraq over bed time stories.

So much for intel... changing the head (of the CIA) will not change the rest. All this money, loss of life, and advanced technology, and we still can't find one gram of wmd or make the peace in Iraq. Fundamentally, the US is corrupt and worthless. I think back and feel it's getting logarithmic, the failures, fvckups and bright ideas are getting worse and worse... No way America can survive these baby boomer internships.

RIP America, changing the CIA head is like changing Enron's head, it another bed time story...

[UIUCstudent01]

I think your appeal is worthless.

Non-military is far better. A military solution to Peak Oil is roughly Iraq + Iran + Saudi Arabia (they're going to be toppled at some point right?) + Kuwait (if they fuss about all the troops).

Some military men may not believe in, you know, "acquiring" the resources. But, I bet most would be toppled by the 'powers that be'. (Our corporate/wall-street market-securing aristocracy who may also want to the United States to remain top dog with Europe being his bitches and lackeys.)

[gg3]

You've both missed the boat and need to learn more about how US intel agencies work.

CIA was historically the lead agency. It had two missions, which were inherently different in terms of organizational culture but were present for a good reason.

One mission was HUMINT collection: human intelligence, cultivating spies. The other mission was analysis of intel from all sources, both CIA HUMINT, and the sources described below. HUMINT tends to require a more risk-taking organizational culture, which can tend to go out of control in the "cowboy" direction pretty quicky. Intel analysis on the other hand is more like an academic discipline, the organizational culture for that is more like what you see in a University science department (even including such things as the use of correct grammar to a degree that is unusual in the outside world). Putting both of these in the same agency provided a means by which the culture of the analysis department (Directorate of Intelligence) could act as a restraining influence on the more "wild" elements in the HUMINT department (the Directorate of Operations, and particularly the Clandestine Service).

CIA was a civilian agency, and the preference has always been for it to have a civilian as its Director. Its output went not only to the Defense Department, but also to State, and to the Executive (among other things, the daily briefing), and to relevant members of Congress acting in an oversight capacity.

NSA was historically the largest agency because of the size of its mission: global SIGINT collection; signals intelligence, electronic interception (which, despite being highly automated, is also surprisingly labor-intensive) including cryptanalysis, traffic analysis, etc. (technical-level analyses; the outputs of which go to CIA for big-picture-level analysis). NSA is also a civilian agency, though in fact about half or more of its staff are uniformed military, so as an organizational culture it tends to be a hybrid. The Director of NSA has traditionally come from either the Army (a General) or the Navy (an Admiral), and the history has usually been to alternate between the two.

Putting Hayden in charge of NSA was a serious break from tradition because he comes from the Air Force. (NSA gets its aerial platforms from the Army and Navy as needed.) Anyone who is familiar with the organizational rivalries between Army, Navy, and Air Force will understand exactly how important this point is. It is also worth noting that the Air Force has recently been virtually taken over by aggressive religious fundamentalists.

NRO (the Nat'l Recon. Office) had the most expensive individual projects due to the nature of its mission: IMINT, imagery intelligence, i.e. space-based photographic intelligence. These are the people who can read a license plate from up in space. NRO also operates SIGINT collection satellites for NSA, but NSA handles the actual collection & processing. NRO is the agency that is normally headed by someone from the Air Force. NRO has close ties with both the Air Force and NASA.

NGA (Nat'l Geospatial Intel Agency), formerly DMA (Defense Mapping Agency) is responsible for imagery intel collected primarily from conventional (land, air, sea) platforms, and (obviously) for producing maps used by the Defense Department in all of its operations. I am not certain of the history of the lineage of the Directors of this agency (come to think of it, I really should know this!).

DIA (Defense Intel Agency) is a wholly-military agency that is normally tasked with gathering all-source intel in war zones. In a way it tends to be almost redundant with the others but it operates in parallel with them, for the purpose of providing an intel track that is directly concerned with conditions on the ground in actual shooting wars. Once again, I don't know the history of the lineage of Directors here.

---

What's important about the Hayden nomination is:

It's unusual to have someone who's career military running CIA. Realistically anyone who gets that job is going to have military background, which is a good thing, but there is a difference when we're talking about a General who has been in all his life.

It was already unusual to have someone from Air Force running NSA.

Hayden did a decent job in terms of management, but he also seemed to go above & beyond the level of duty in the degree to which he defended Bush's illegal orders for domestic collection. He could have simply said, "we are an agency of the Executive branch, and we take our orders from the C-in-C." Instead he went on a virtual PR tour for the program. That suggests that either he really did support it, or he was ordered by Bush to do the PR tour. In the past, Directors of NSA have tended to avoid publicity as far as they possibly could, so a PR tour is another clear break from tradition.

CIA needs to remain a civilian agency, amenable to civilian control. This point was made even by a number of Republicans, who are concerned with the break from organizational tradition. (The military has DIA for its own uses, the two agencies are not interchangeable, they need to remain as independent tracks.)

In particular, CIA needs to be free of conflicts of interest. It needs to produce intel that can be counted on to be objective and truthful and correct to the best of our knowledge. This calls for it to be independent-minded, and not be beholden to any particular Administration. "Fixing the intel around the policy" is the problem, not the solution.

Does this make any of this any more clear..?