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Economics - Science or Religion?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby Liamj » Wed 22 Feb 2006, 20:00:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', 'I')s war profiteering a market failure or just capitalism inevitably feeding off stupidity?
It's political corruption, nothing more. See the following on Halliburton: http://www.mises.org/story/1643

Thats theres political corruption is i think beyond question, but to just blame politics isn't going to wash.
When private capital has systematically ensured that gaining its favour is essential to running (media concentration, ad budgets, direct mail & push polling...) for sheriff, never mind Rep or Pres., then priv.capital, and the assumptions/rhetoric that created same, have to carry some of the 'blame', if only for being a runaway system function with no effective feedback. I'm not saying all concentrations of private capital are bad, but if you don't know which of your dogs is killing all your sheep...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I')f you don't like corruption, you have to abolish politics.
Because fascism, communism and warlords don't have corruption :lol:

edit - thanks for the Mises link, fascinating to see them talking about stuff antiglobalista's have been arguing for, oh, maybe fifteen years.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby MrBill » Thu 23 Feb 2006, 06:07:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', 'I')s war profiteering a market failure or just capitalism inevitably feeding off stupidity?
It's political corruption, nothing more. See the following on Halliburton: http://www.mises.org/story/1643

Thats theres political corruption is i think beyond question, but to just blame politics isn't going to wash.
When private capital has systematically ensured that gaining its favour is essential to running (media concentration, ad budgets, direct mail & push polling...) for sheriff, never mind Rep or Pres., then priv.capital, and the assumptions/rhetoric that created same, have to carry some of the 'blame', if only for being a runaway system function with no effective feedback. I'm not saying all concentrations of private capital are bad, but if you don't know which of your dogs is killing all your sheep...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I')f you don't like corruption, you have to abolish politics.
Because fascism, communism and warlords don't have corruption :lol:

edit - thanks for the Mises link, fascinating to see them talking about stuff antiglobalista's have been arguing for, oh, maybe fifteen years.




Or you may argue that most of forms of government past, present & future are at their heart organized cleptocracies to a greater or lesser degree, and that they are widely tolerated or even accepted as the alternatives of anarchy and disorganization are considered worse.

Therefore, you might then also argue that groups like the Carlyle Group thrive better than most because they have taken the most sophisticated, market based approach due their understanding of finance and economics. In otherwords, they are just more efficient than your run of the mill cleptocrat or behind the scenes string puller.

I think you might build a good case that Catholicism was a successful religious organization not because their ideas were better, but because they took a market based approach to religion and were better organized than their competitors. That of course lead Luther and the Reformists to call for more competition in the market. And then the split between Rome and the the Orthodox religions. Back to economics and free entry & entry to markets versus monopolies and oligarchies.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby MrBill » Thu 23 Feb 2006, 08:04:28

Pay for performance metrics. Doctors and Pilots.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut we still could be doing a lot better. Under the current medical system, doctors, nurses, lab technicians and hospital executives are not actually paid to come up with the right diagnosis. They are paid to perform tests and to do surgery and to dispense drugs.

There is no bonus for curing someone and no penalty for failing, except when the mistakes rise to the level of malpractice. So even though doctors can have the best intentions, they have little economic incentive to spend time double-checking their instincts, and hospitals have little incentive to give them the tools to do so.

"You get what you pay for," Mark B. McClellan, who runs Medicare and Medicaid, told me. "And we ought to be paying for better quality."

There are some bits of good news here. Dr. McClellan has set up small pay-for-performance programs in Medicare, and a few insurers are also experimenting. But it isn't nearly a big enough push. We just are not using the power of incentives to save lives. For a politician looking to make the often-bloodless debate over health care come alive, this is a huge opportunity.

Joseph Britto, a former intensive-care doctor, likes to compare medicine's attitude toward mistakes with the airline industry's. At the insistence of pilots, who have the ultimate incentive not to mess up, airlines have studied their errors and nearly eliminated crashes.

"Unlike pilots," Dr. Britto said, "doctors don't go down with their planes."



Why Doctors So Often Get It Wrong
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby jaws » Thu 23 Feb 2006, 18:24:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', 'T')hats theres political corruption is i think beyond question, but to just blame politics isn't going to wash.
When private capital has systematically ensured that gaining its favour is essential to running (media concentration, ad budgets, direct mail & push polling...) for sheriff, never mind Rep or Pres., then priv.capital, and the assumptions/rhetoric that created same, have to carry some of the 'blame', if only for being a runaway system function with no effective feedback. I'm not saying all concentrations of private capital are bad, but if you don't know which of your dogs is killing all your sheep...

edit - thanks for the Mises link, fascinating to see them talking about stuff antiglobalista's have been arguing for, oh, maybe fifteen years.

The problem with you antiglobalistas is that you don't know who your enemy is. It isn't "private capital." There are more capitalists hurt by Halliburton than there are who gain from it, and the same is true of media concentration, and sheriff elections. The problem is the state and its power to corrupt. You can fight corruption without harassing the Chinese guys trying to make some extra rice money.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby rogerhb » Thu 23 Feb 2006, 18:41:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')he problem is the state and its power to corrupt. You can fight corruption without harassing the Chinese guys trying to make some extra rice money.


It's more than 'the state', it also includes the WTO, World Bank and IMF etc. The idea that mulitnational corporations should have more power than democratically elected governments does not seem right to me.

Fortunately it's not just the rest of the world that suffers, the grand ol'US of A is being asset stripped effectively at the moment and ironically China and India are getting a better deal of it gaining the software projects and helpdesks in addition to manufacturing. Corporations do not act in national interests, only share holders (and directors) interests.

They have lost the idea of Henry Ford who wanted his employees to be able to buy his cars, not just by making them cheap enough but also by paying them enough.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby Liamj » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 10:33:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Or you may argue that most of forms of government past, present & future are at their heart organized cleptocracies to a greater or lesser degree, and that they are widely tolerated or even accepted as the alternatives of anarchy and disorganization are considered worse.
Thats a false choice between cleptocracy and disorganisation, what faces all settled societies instead is gov. by infinite varieties of coercion+dependence+cultural mumbo jumbo.

The urge to corruption in gov & business (elsewhere) is inevitable, how much happens depends on those unfashionable friends transperancy, civic engagement, open media, an accountable executive and the rule of law. That all these are sick or extinct is partly oils fault imho, we've been seduced into corpulence and political apathy by abundance and the lack of neccesities needle, but that doesn't mean there is no middle ground.
The next generation i expect will be a bit more passionate, maybe will bring their crooks to account.
But throwing a nameless corporate crim and vice pres in jail wont land us back in the caves (so long as patriotic soldiers keep the nutter away from the nukes).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Therefore, you might then also argue that groups like the Carlyle Group thrive better than most because they have taken the most sophisticated, market based approach due their understanding of finance and economics. In otherwords, they are just more efficient than your run of the mill cleptocrat or behind the scenes string puller.
Sure, if you focus solely on the returns on capital and ignore the actual work done by that capital (armaments, buyouts & labour 'rationalisations', race to the bottom widget manufacturing - all burning emergy we don't have to spare) then its all pretty. Same reason they demolish shanties near international hotels and keep syphlitic whores out of the officers quarters, don't want to discourage middle management. I digress - Carlyle thrives the way maggots do on a fly struck sheep. Thats not something i can see any good in, as already said, this is a process out of control, there is no effective (in terms fitting their impacts) feedback on venture and speculative capital. This is not due to some mystical law of the universe but to the accelerating 'deregulation'/neoliberalism/economic fundamentalism pushed by well known private foundations, quasi- & supra-national institutions, and renta-stateswo/men.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I think you might build a good case that Catholicism was a successful religious organization not because their ideas were better, but because they took a market based approach to religion and were better organized than their competitors. That of course lead Luther and the Reformists to call for more competition in the market. And then the split between Rome and the the Orthodox religions. Back to economics and free entry & entry to markets versus monopolies and oligarchies.
Could be, i'm not knowledgeable or very interested in business development models. What really works in the descent will soon become apparent, and i'll bet my windup radio it wont be fabrications of paper and greed. b
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby Liamj » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 10:36:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')he problem with you antiglobalistas is that you don't know who your enemy is. It isn't "private capital." There are more capitalists hurt by Halliburton than there are who gain from it, and the same is true of media concentration, and sheriff elections. The problem is the state and its power to corrupt.
I already said wasn't against priv. capital. Funny how the state is the corrupting power, when its business that has the shady money and gets to bank corruptions proceeds!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'Y')ou can fight corruption without harassing the Chinese guys trying to make some extra rice money.
Absolutely.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby jaws » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 16:07:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', 'I') already said wasn't against priv. capital. Funny how the state is the corrupting power, when its business that has the shady money and gets to bank corruptions proceeds!
It's the state that holds the power and sells it to them. There are no other culprits. The reasons that private interests buy this power and bank the profits are irrelevant. They might be evil, or they might be acting defensively to protect their business against someone else who could use the power against them.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby MrBill » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 16:51:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Or you may argue that most of forms of government past, present & future are at their heart organized cleptocracies to a greater or lesser degree, and that they are widely tolerated or even accepted as the alternatives of anarchy and disorganization are considered worse.
Thats a false choice between cleptocracy and disorganisation, what faces all settled societies instead is gov. by infinite varieties of coercion+dependence+cultural mumbo jumbo.

The urge to corruption in gov & business (elsewhere) is inevitable, how much happens depends on those unfashionable friends transperancy, civic engagement, open media, an accountable executive and the rule of law. That all these are sick or extinct is partly oils fault imho, we've been seduced into corpulence and political apathy by abundance and the lack of neccesities needle, but that doesn't mean there is no middle ground.
The next generation i expect will be a bit more passionate, maybe will bring their crooks to account.
But throwing a nameless corporate crim and vice pres in jail wont land us back in the caves (so long as patriotic soldiers keep the nutter away from the nukes).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Therefore, you might then also argue that groups like the Carlyle Group thrive better than most because they have taken the most sophisticated, market based approach due their understanding of finance and economics. In otherwords, they are just more efficient than your run of the mill cleptocrat or behind the scenes string puller.
Sure, if you focus solely on the returns on capital and ignore the actual work done by that capital (armaments, buyouts & labour 'rationalisations', race to the bottom widget manufacturing - all burning emergy we don't have to spare) then its all pretty. Same reason they demolish shanties near international hotels and keep syphlitic whores out of the officers quarters, don't want to discourage middle management. I digress - Carlyle thrives the way maggots do on a fly struck sheep. Thats not something i can see any good in, as already said, this is a process out of control, there is no effective (in terms fitting their impacts) feedback on venture and speculative capital. This is not due to some mystical law of the universe but to the accelerating 'deregulation'/neoliberalism/economic fundamentalism pushed by well known private foundations, quasi- & supra-national institutions, and renta-stateswo/men.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I think you might build a good case that Catholicism was a successful religious organization not because their ideas were better, but because they took a market based approach to religion and were better organized than their competitors. That of course lead Luther and the Reformists to call for more competition in the market. And then the split between Rome and the the Orthodox religions. Back to economics and free entry & entry to markets versus monopolies and oligarchies.
Could be, i'm not knowledgeable or very interested in business development models. What really works in the descent will soon become apparent, and i'll bet my windup radio it wont be fabrications of paper and greed. b


Liam, I did not try to defend the actions of these groups, just to show that their understanding of economics and finance is/was useful in acheiving their goals, and the solution to our problems is also to use these tools not to forsake them for ignorance.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby rogerhb » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 21:23:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') did not try to defend the actions of these groups, just to show that their understanding of economics and finance is/was useful in acheiving their goals, and the solution to our problems is also to use these tools not to forsake them for ignorance.


Alas organized religions' main tool is ignorance.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby Liamj » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 21:55:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'L')iam, I did not try to defend the actions of these groups, just to show that their understanding of economics and finance is/was useful in acheiving their goals, and the solution to our problems is also to use these tools not to forsake them for ignorance.
No animosity meant, I agree its worth understanding a certain amount, and thank you for the time you've taken on this board to enlighten.

But i don't think all of the 'tools' of economics will be alot of use, and many are positively counter to sustainability, at least in their present form - "madness is repeating the same behaviour and expecting a different result".
Trying to work towards sustainability using or even thinking from within the mechanistic and narrow minded assumptions of economics is doomed to fail, like asking a vegetarian to cook your steak.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby MrBill » Sat 25 Feb 2006, 07:15:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'L')iam, I did not try to defend the actions of these groups, just to show that their understanding of economics and finance is/was useful in acheiving their goals, and the solution to our problems is also to use these tools not to forsake them for ignorance.
No animosity meant, I agree its worth understanding a certain amount, and thank you for the time you've taken on this board to enlighten.

But i don't think all of the 'tools' of economics will be alot of use, and many are positively counter to sustainability, at least in their present form - "madness is repeating the same behaviour and expecting a different result".
Trying to work towards sustainability using or even thinking from within the mechanistic and narrow minded assumptions of economics is doomed to fail, like asking a vegetarian to cook your steak.



Stupid policies based on classic economics, which I believe if phased in would contribute to a more sustainable economic development, and curb the use of scarce resources while helping smooth the transition to post-peak oil. Naturally, each measure has its own side effects and unintended consequences, so policy trade-offs would have to be made. Hey, what do you expect for free?

In no particular order. In general, but with more a focus on the USA and western Europe rather than global. Not all measures apply to all countries equally.

Caveat emptor.

• Governments must balance their budgets. Applies to all levels of government.
• Over time budget surpluses must be used to eliminate debt.
• Governments are not allowed to run unfunded liabilities.
• All items are on-balance sheet. No off-balance sheet transactions are allowed. Applies to governments and publicly traded companies alike.
• Any public or corporate future liability such as private pensions must be fully funded.
• Companies may not use pension funds and other assets for future liabilities for any other reason other than their intended purpose.
• Bonds issued to pay for public infrastructure projects must have pass through structures where revenues collected go to pay back the debt.
• Taxes collected for one purpose must not be used for general operating revenues (GOR).
• Road taxes based on actual road usage. User pays. Road taxes may be used to fund new road construction.
• Vehicle taxes based on weight and engine size.
• Vehicle taxes collected must be used to promote energy efficiency and public transport alternatives and not used for road construction.
• Carbon taxes shall be levied to reduce consumption, with revenues going to finance R&D into alternatives and/or green friendly alternatives.
• Carbon taxes may not be used for GOR
• Housing taxes should be based on size of the house and energy consumption per square meter and not on market value.
• Water and sewage should be taxed at market rates and the proceeds used to improve efficiency.
• No water discounts or below market pricing for manufacturers or agricultural users.
• Agriculture users on or near water must ensure that their effluents do not contaminate local water supplies.
• Imported fruit & vegetables shall be liable to inspection, certification and import duties to a) either ascertain that they were produced under similar environmental standards, or b) taxed at levels comparable to producing similar products locally.
• Best practices shall be imposed on manufacturing and especially auto manufacture to ensure ever improving fuel standards.
• Each energy consuming appliance or vehicle or good must be assessed as to its energy consumption and where applicable the cost of recycling and/or disposal and be certified.
• Certification would give rise to an energy tax and/or confirm that it complies with best practice standards.
• No corporate tax breaks. No exceptions.
• Jurisdictions deemed to be using taxes as a competitive advantage may be sued by other jurisdictions just like under WTO or NAFTA rules.
• All packaging shall have either a recycling deposit or a waste disposal charge attached to it.
• All such charges shall apply to imports and domestically produced goods alike.
• All products shall be labeled according to third party certification as to origin and environmentally sustainable practices.
• No product may be imported or sold without certification. Where, then a recycling or waste disposal fee shall be accessed based on like goods produced and sold domestically.
• Private companies must obey the same laws as publicly traded companies with regards to environmental directives and disclosures.
• Public & private companies must post performance bonds for environmental compliance and clean-up management to reflect the true environmental costs of a project and bankruptcy or asset disposal is not an alternative.
• Limited liability incorporation shall not cover future liabilities arising from environmental clean-up.
• Performance bonds must be guaranteed by the government and of course fully funded. Perhaps securitized and sold-off in tranches to private investors.
• Strict campaign contribution limits and no front running of campaign contributions ahead of an election or announcement of candidacy.
• Term limits for all elected politicians.
• Publicy traded companies must disclose their worldwide income under one tax jurisdiction under one regulator/supervisor.
• Intercompany transactions must be carried out at an arm length’s basis based on market rates.
• As always government employees, officials, company directors and other decision makers shall be held strictly liable for any infractions taken deliberately to circumvent any and all environmental laws, etc.

Well, I am sure this is not an exhausted list, but it is a start. All based on pure finance and no voodoo economics. Curb consumption by making sure prices reflect their true costs to society, by making sure future liabilities are fully funded and by leveling the playing field between imports and domestically produced goods & services through non-tariff and tariff barriers.

As I said, there are policy trade-offs and many items would need to be gradually implemented to minimize disruptions. None of them are impossible to implement if the will is there.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby Liamj » Sat 25 Feb 2006, 20:19:54

Serious list Mr Bill, and on first reading i support all of its points (am most doubtful about requirement to meet existing pension liabilities); but i don't think they go far enough.
In my dreams the starting point is the creation of quantitative resource stocks and flows models which set human demands within the larger biospherical context and its demands.
The quantity of money then needs to reflect (be fully backed by) the actual resources available for use (without further drawing down natural capital or ecosystem services), not just promises to pay or force of arms. There may well need to be different types of money for diff resources (labour, energy, material), and demurrage may be wisest way to maintain the wealth of the most number of people. There are many other things i'd wish for, but they're all secondary to making our means of exchange reflect the real world.

Hence, I don't fiscal reform alone can do the job, we have to find ways to plug in the many externalised costs of business as usual. There are limits to how much we can take from ecosystem services, and we're ignoring them at our peril - the health of the merely human economy will matter not at all if rainfall continues to fall in temperate regions, if the fishing boats keep returning to port empty and if grain yeilds continue to decline. Mr Bill recognises this with good proposals on water pricing and carbon emissions, and if those were the only resources we were running short on, they might suffice.
On a happier note, i suspect many nationalist, green, social democrat, libertarian and conservative groups could support Mr Bills agenda. Might be interesting to paste it up via Simpol and see.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby katkinkate » Sat 25 Feb 2006, 21:24:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') don't know whether to laugh or to cry? I guess the less you understand finance & economics the better it is for me. Thanks.

Too bad that some of those issues you mentioned affect 5/6ths of the world's population and they are desperately poor for many reasons including their own and their own governments lack of understanding of finance & economics either.

You say you understand science? Then cost/benefit analysis should not be such a hard concept for you to grasp? I think the natural sciences, like biology follow the rules of supply & demand very closely when we talk about population expansion & contraction in response to environmental constraints? On the otherhand, economists use many of the same statistical tools and quantitative methods that engineers use to build 'real things'. As a matter of fact, the Black Scholes options pricing model was borrowed from the physics lab. It is just a variation of a dust particle
expansion model.

Oh well, sleep it off and come back when you're sober, so we can have a real conversation.


That's all well and good mate, but particle physics deals with inanimate objects that follow the laws of physics and economics deals with people who's behaviour depend on varying levels of knowledge, their starting socioeconomic level, their emotions, manipulation by Governments and other vested interest groups and fashion. Human behaviour doesn't really conform to physical laws and trying to predict human behaviour with models from physics and chemistry will fall short of the reality of what's actually happening.
Kind regards, Katkinkate

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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby jaws » Sun 26 Feb 2006, 00:49:43

That's quite an elaborate list Mr. Bill, which is unfortunately its fatal flaw. You will never succeed at getting this implemented through the political process. Every item will be rephrased by politicians to serve their own interests. You will never succeed at so little as getting the voters to even learn the list, even less so support it politically. It has no chance.

That's the problem with nearly everyone who has a plan for all of society. They assume that getting their plan implemented by politicians is just a formality. All it takes is some activism and voila, the problem is solved. That's not reality however. Reality is that politicians work to serve themselves. They always have and always will. The less power they have, the less responsibility they've been handed, the better things will be. That is why economics has shown that the free market is the only social system that works.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby MrBill » Sun 26 Feb 2006, 04:34:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')hat's quite an elaborate list Mr. Bill, which is unfortunately its fatal flaw. You will never succeed at getting this implemented through the political process. Every item will be rephrased by politicians to serve their own interests. You will never succeed at so little as getting the voters to even learn the list, even less so support it politically. It has no chance.

That's the problem with nearly everyone who has a plan for all of society. They assume that getting their plan implemented by politicians is just a formality. All it takes is some activism and voila, the problem is solved. That's not reality however. Reality is that politicians work to serve themselves. They always have and always will. The less power they have, the less responsibility they've been handed, the better things will be. That is why economics has shown that the free market is the only social system that works.



Not fatally flawed at all. The confulence of events has just not nessecitated radical reform of the existing system. However, almost everyone of my points has been implemented somewhere and it works. As a matter of fact I was waiting for someone to say,hey, mate, we already have carbon taxes, we already tax vehicles by engine size, we already have road pricing schemes. They are all doable, and afterall this post started out to debunk the myth that economics is all smoke and mirrors.

Therefore, pilot projects here and there mean that many of these proposals are already being tried. Some states have played with balanced budgets. The growth and stability pact in the ERM tried to enforce fiscal disclipine on member states. The results vary, but that has mostly to do with political will and its citizens different expectations.

For example, most appliances are already coded wth stickers like CEE compliant and many manufacturers are required to list such things as expected MPG, the only change is to require it universally and to force your trade partners to also comply with higher, local standards as California and other states have tried. Not a lot of success stories out there with good end results, but that comes down to flawed implementation not bad ideas.

Even if the US & CDA were to adopt W. European & Japan fuel standards and automobile technology, technology that is already commercially available, it would make a large difference to how much automobile fuel was burnt. Those types of changs can be implemented in one full model change. The domestic players already have the technology and know how because they are also active in these overseas markets. Ditto for carbon taxes which address the problem and that is consumption. In the US gasoline and diesel is simply too cheap. It invites waste. Tax consumption and you have less consumption.

So my list is not perfect, but my point was to debunk the arguments that the existing system is so flawed that it cannot be improved and to throw back some arguments that economists are just charlatons.


RE particle heat exchange models and human behavior. Yes, there is a whole branch of economics called behavioral finance which attempts to analyze how some small changes have larger effects. Why for example, simplifying the tax code results in higher rates of tax compliance rather than the risk of fines or punishment alone. Simplify the tax code, more people pay their taxes and therefore the state has to spend less money on compliance.

Ditto for the Laffer Curve. Lower taxes and you end up generating more tax revenue. Unfortunately, some states have taken this to mean you can lower taxes, increase spending and run deficits without out any side effects. Political perversion does not invalidate the Laffer Curve which is based on sound economic theory.

Option pricing models are serious risk management tools. They are very widely used and they are very reliable. Some people who do not understand option pricing models get them mixed up with leverage and contingent liabilities. I can use options to hedge an underlying risk, which reduces my value at risk, or I can use options and leverage to take on speculative risks which increases my value at risk. In otherwords, I can use a sharp knife to cut my steak or cut my wrists. We do not let children play with sharp knives, but we see them as legitimate tools for a butcher.

RE sheeple. Unfortunately, although individuals do act in unpredictable ways, in general they act in predictable ways as a group. Young people spend more, older people save. When interest rates go down, homeowners refinance their mortgages. Higher interest rates tend to encourage saving, while low interest rates seem to get a) encourage spending, b) encourage investors to take more risk, and c) get capitalized into the price of assets. If I use statistical tools along with reliable marketing data, I can more accurately target needs or wants. That people have wants as well as needs is not the fault of the marketer. It really would be unrealistic to suggest we can change human nature. Unfortunately, based on historical patterns, a depletion of hydrocarbons will not be a painless transition for the many sheeple who cannot see past their next paycheque.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby jaws » Sun 26 Feb 2006, 16:14:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'N')ot fatally flawed at all. The confulence of events has just not nessecitated radical reform of the existing system. However, almost everyone of my points has been implemented somewhere and it works. As a matter of fact I was waiting for someone to say,hey, mate, we already have carbon taxes, we already tax vehicles by engine size, we already have road pricing schemes. They are all doable, and afterall this post started out to debunk the myth that economics is all smoke and mirrors.

Of course they are doable. There is nothing revolutionary about "road pricing." It is a method that has conventionally been known throughout history as "paying in exchange for a good." The reason we even have to bring this up, just like the reason we even have to bring up pollution and engine size, is the failure of politicians to let the market work as it should in the economy. What your list does is give politicians even more power by obfuscating the issue even further, and the result will not be what you expected it to be.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby rogerhb » Sun 26 Feb 2006, 17:54:44

I'm going to weigh in on Jaws' side for a change;

A problem with trying to manipulate behaviour using taxes is it leads to inflation among other things:-

1. those taxes end up getting spent somewhere buying something that would not normally have been bought, and also they get put in a common pot, so taxes on fuel don't all go on roads etc

2. as politicians notice that some is taxed and hence a revenue earner, they then don't want to stop it, eg smoking and drinking, the revenue is worth more to them than the problems they cause

3. you end up with industries that depend on the revenue from the taxes, and politicians don't want to stop those industries because they contribute to GDP etc
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby Liamj » Sun 26 Feb 2006, 22:55:34

O-k-a-y, leaving the limitations of taxation for a minute, what about Mr Bills other proposals?

Must budgets be balanced?
Must liabilities be fully funded? (might be conceiveable if we ditch current promises to pay and start anew :twisted: )
Can corporations survive without tax breaks/royalty holidays/land gifts?
Should imports be levied at the same rates as local production?
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Postby jaws » Sun 26 Feb 2006, 23:53:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', 'O')-k-a-y, leaving the limitations of taxation for a minute, what about Mr Bills other proposals?

Must budgets be balanced?
Must liabilities be fully funded? (might be conceiveable if we ditch current promises to pay and start anew :twisted: )
Obviously they must, and any minimally competent institution will see to it as a first order of business. The reason we bring this up is because politicians are not competent, therefore the only real solution is to make sure they control absolutely the minimal amount of resources possible. Then it is much easier for the population to keep them in check.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')an corporations survive without tax breaks/royalty holidays/land gifts?
Should imports be levied at the same rates as local production?

Corporations are businesses with limited liability. They can survive just like any business. And imports are fundamentally no different from local production. What is local to me is an import to you and vice versa, even if we're immediate neighbors.
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