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Economics - Science or Religion?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby drew » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 12:36:11

I am conflicted. The one major flaw of capitalism is ethical in nature. That being said, I am supportive of the system due to the fact that no other economic system has allowed people to live in such a place as today's world. And I don't mean rich and poor. At one point almost all people were poor, with very few filthy rich individuals thrown in. Needless to say there is a huge middle class world wide that would not exist without capatilsim.

That being said, my issue with the system is entirely ethical; the guys, and women, running corporations, (and governments), often have a very poorly developed sense of right and wrong. Unfortunately, as long as the entity is returning value to the shareholders, nothing is said about conducting business in a less than benevolent manner. Coke deals with Burma; Rubber Machinery Shop (spun off of Uniroyal) refuses to settle with strikers and sets up shop in China; Shell supports the Nigerian government; etc.,

These are relatively gross misdeeds in my opinion, but even my employer is guilty. Management often fails to understand causality in the simplest terms, being far more concerned with profitabilty and control than ethics. The other day I visited the Ministry of Labour to find out my rights with respect to a work refusal I was planning on committing. My occupation (truck driver) has liabilities in the public domain that most occupations don't. I can be charged, (even criminally), fined, prosecuted, and sued for errors of conduct in my duties, by the government and the public at large.

That being said, I have been demanding for several months that my employer fix the anti-lock braking systems on many of the trailers I haul. I found myself sliding sideways down three lanes of traffic in an icestorm because the anti-lock failed to activate. Luckily no one was beside me. I almost slid right through an intersection on a red, with the air horn blaring!While technically having these not functional is not a Hiway Traffic Act violation, I can see quite easily the potential for a civil lawsuit if I were to lose control trying to stop and took out some poor unfortunate. All it would take is for a lawyer to examine the daily inspection book and note that I chose to drive the vehicle with a defect.

My employer somehow fails to see my point, nor are they concerned with the moral reponsibilty to the motoring public. Is this being a good corporate citizen? It took my threat of a work refusal to smarten them up; fortunately for myself, labour law states that all saftey equipment, optional or not, shall be in working order at all times.

Why are corportations so quick to dump risk uopn others by cutting corners, or so easily swayed by potential profits that they are often caught in bed with the devil? A lack of moral behavior that is top down in nature seems to be tha root cause IMHO.

That being said, I don't feel bad profiting from my stock trading, as I am merely taking some other investor's money, but do believe that dividends paid by the likes of Shell are tainted by violence and are thus blood money.

Conflicted? You bet!

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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 07:03:50

Drew, most of us have conflicts, only simpletons see everything in black & white. Needless to say, they re not the ones making decisions and influencing policy. There is by nature a trade-off otherwise it would be easy ' to do the right thing' ?

In any case, keep your log book, keep your correspondance with your firm. In case of an accident, the lawyers and the insurance cos. will go after the firm not the truck driver. And as an employee the firm is in any case liable for your conduct on the road. Even if they can prove that you did not follow procedures. However, your decision to pursue the issue reflects well on your good judgement.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby drew » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 11:40:10

Thanks for the props Mrbill. People were being unduly harsh, no doubt.

Back to the topic at hand; economics is certainly a science, albeit an inexact one. However for very many it is a religion. My old man was a broker, and an optimist as well, which seems to be the prevailing public face of the corporate world, especially in the consumer market for investments.

Whether this public face is true or not is significant since the amateur investment community does indeed adopt the advestising and culture as a religion. I think people want to believe that the good-times will happen for them as well (like lotto 649), due to all the ads showning youthful 50 somethings on their yacths, or in Tuscany on vacation. Most don't want to be involved in serious decision making and instead take whatever is doled out by their broker or investment advisor like a wafer and wine at communion.

People who think economics is a religion should try reading more, as the principles followed by the business community are somewhat universal. I am completely a neophyte to this world, yet this was evident to me a year back or more. What works, works. I am reading a Buffettology book this weekend and although I am much more of a speculator than he is, the priciples espoused in the book are the same for me as they are for Warren Buffett.

Question for you, Mrbill; do you think Buffett's buy and hold strategy will work for anything other than commodities in the coming years?

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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 13:58:20

Drew wrtoe:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Q')uestion for you, Mrbill; do you think Buffett's buy and hold strategy will work for anything other than commodities in the coming years?


To be honest, I am not a very good equity investor myself. I prefer FX and commodities. Equity seems to be too much of an insiders game to be played from the bottom-up, so if at all, I prefer top-down strategy, trying to pick sectors that are likely to outperform. But my record is patchy. I have had some good successes, but if I am honest, my performance in equities has been middling.

I cannot imagine that a buy & hold strategy in commodities will be the right strategy in the long-run. It has been the way to be since 1999, 2001 and 2004 for some commodities, but with mixed results, just like buying realestate in the wake of the dotcom crash was the right strategy as interest rates were slashed, but there is no guarantee going forward that housing prices will continue to grow at the same pace. Certainly, correlation is no proof of causality.

Bullish events
strong global demand especially from Asia
katerina/rita/wilma weather related events
sanctions on Iran
unrest in Nigeria
population growth
climate change
ongoing unrest/sabbotage of oil infrastructure
al qaeda

Bearish events
a 9/11 event like London/Madrid
avian flu pandemic
global fiscal imbalances
higher global interest rates

There are more bullish than bearish events, but theoretically that is reflected in today's higher price already. On the other hand, the trend is your friend, so until it reverses, there is no reason to believe we are at the end of the commodity bull run.

Likely 80/20 chance for higher commodity prices overall, until some event such as avian flu kicks the legs out from under the global economy.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 19:21:34

Noam Chomsky on the Hopeful Signs Across Latin America

In a similar vein to Confessions of an Economic Hit-Man...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chomsky', 'T')he ideological issue that you rightly bring up is the impact of neoliberalism. It's pretty striking over the last twenty-five years, overwhelmingly it's true, that the countries that have adhered to the neo-liberal rules have had an economic catastrophe and the countries that didn't pay any intention to the rules grew and developed. East Asia developed rapidly pretty much by totally ignoring the rules. Chile is claimed as being a market economy but that's highly misleading: its main export is a very efficient state owned copper company nationalized under Allende. You don't get correlations like this in economics very often. Adherence to the neoliberal rules has been associated with economic failure and violation of them with economic success: it's very hard to miss that. Maybe some economists can miss it but people don't: they live it.

Yes, there is an uprising against it. Cuba is a symbol. Venezuela is another, Argentina, where they recovered from the IMF catastrophe by violating the rules and sharply violating them, and then throwing out the IMF. Well, this is the ideological issue. The IMF is just a name for the economic weapon of domination, which is eroding.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby jaws » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 20:17:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'Q')uestion for you, Mrbill; do you think Buffett's buy and hold strategy will work for anything other than commodities in the coming years?
I remember reading Marc Faber once pointing out that the most profitable portfolio one could have had over the past 50 years would have only conducted about 5 transactions. Buy Dow Jones in the 50s-early 60s, buy gold and commodities in the early 70's, buy Nikkei and bonds in the early 80's, buy Dow Jones in the early 90's, and buy gold and commodities in 2000.

Buy and hold works. You just have to know what to hold.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby jaws » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 20:20:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '[')url=http://www.counterpunch.org/]Noam Chomsky on the Hopeful Signs Across Latin America[/url]

In a similar vein to Confessions of an Economic Hit-Man...
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 20:35:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I')f Cuba is hopeful, I don't want to know what despair is.


It's when US loses a city, Cuba offers medical assistance and US refuses.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby drew » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 23:15:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I') remember reading Marc Faber once pointing out that the most profitable portfolio one could have had over the past 50 years would have only conducted about 5 transactions. Buy Dow Jones in the 50s-early 60s, buy gold and commodities in the early 70's, buy Nikkei and bonds in the early 80's, buy Dow Jones in the early 90's, and buy gold and commodities in 2000.

Buy and hold works. You just have to know what to hold.



Yeah, that's the ticket, no doubt.

Just finished that Buffet book, it was good. But it always amazes me when authors contradict themselves when writing. The author says 'buffet & crew believe you should only make 20 decisions in your investment life'-that sounds a little unlikely, unless every move Buffett made was a homer (and he made some big mistakes too). He goes on to say 'buffett always buys and holds and beleives in low or no debt'. Funny thing is though, when you look at his portfolio from 20, there are 4 stocks. Then at 21 he has 7 completely different stocks and a 5000 buck loan. Not saying Buffet is not a genius, but I don't think he adheres to his rules anywhere near as much as he would have us believe.

When to sell, yes?

What to sell, also?

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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 05:39:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I') remember reading Marc Faber once pointing out that the most profitable portfolio one could have had over the past 50 years would have only conducted about 5 transactions. Buy Dow Jones in the 50s-early 60s, buy gold and commodities in the early 70's, buy Nikkei and bonds in the early 80's, buy Dow Jones in the early 90's, and buy gold and commodities in 2000.

Buy and hold works. You just have to know what to hold.



Yeah, that's the ticket, no doubt.

Just finished that Buffet book, it was good. But it always amazes me when authors contradict themselves when writing. The author says 'buffet & crew believe you should only make 20 decisions in your investment life'-that sounds a little unlikely, unless every move Buffett made was a homer (and he made some big mistakes too). He goes on to say 'buffett always buys and holds and beleives in low or no debt'. Funny thing is though, when you look at his portfolio from 20, there are 4 stocks. Then at 21 he has 7 completely different stocks and a 5000 buck loan. Not saying Buffet is not a genius, but I don't think he adheres to his rules anywhere near as much as he would have us believe.

When to sell, yes?

What to sell, also?

Drew



You cannot argue with his success, but it is very hard to formulate the complex decision making process into a few hard fast rules, and when you do it all sounds like a cliché - buy low, sell high.

I think that adherring to the Pereto Principle that 20% of your investment decisions will yield 80% of your results. However, that means letting the winners run, while ruthlessly culling the losers. Or another cliché - your first loss is your best loss.

I have always been far too conservative. I am too quick to take profit, so I miss out on the really big moves, unless it is in my retirement account, where I cannot touch it, and the Canadian oil & gas fund that I bought in 1999 goes through the roof. Why did I buy that one? I was home visiting friends in N. Alberta and my friend sells trucks to the oil & gas patch. He said the patch was absolutely dead. Just maintenance on wells that they had capped because the price was too low to be profitable. I thought,okay, the wells are drilled and capped, when prices rise, all they have to do is turn the taps back on, so I bought Canadian oil & gas when the price was really low. Now, if that was in my active portfolio, I would have n doubt sold in 2004, 2005, 2006 thinking the great rally had run its course. Thank goodness that money is safe out of my reach. But that was anecdotal evidence, not something I read from an investment report. Also, something to keep in mind.

So, I think read everything Buffet says and then look at what drives your local economy. I stay away from stuff I do not understand. I would rather lose money do my own opinion than have to rely on someone elses.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby shakespear1 » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 05:51:17

If you find Buffett amazing check out the two stocks mentioned in the following and wonder why we are not in them :-)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Like Buffett, only better
advertisement
Berkshire Hathaway's earnings tumbled 29% in 2005, excluding an accounting gain. So why follow Buffett? Here are two companies that play the same game but get better returns.

By Jon D. Markman

Oh, lords of the market, let this be the last straw. The last paean from the pious. The last time we must see simpering reporters, Rotarians and retirees blow kisses to a man once celebrated as the Oracle of Omaha but now best described as the Natterer of Nebraska.')

Buffett like ...
Men argue, nature acts !
Voltaire

"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

Alan Greenspan
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 06:22:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'I')f you find Buffett amazing check out the two stocks mentioned in the following and wonder why we are not in them :-)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Like Buffett, only better
advertisement
Berkshire Hathaway's earnings tumbled 29% in 2005, excluding an accounting gain. So why follow Buffett? Here are two companies that play the same game but get better returns.

By Jon D. Markman

Oh, lords of the market, let this be the last straw. The last paean from the pious. The last time we must see simpering reporters, Rotarians and retirees blow kisses to a man once celebrated as the Oracle of Omaha but now best described as the Natterer of Nebraska.')


Regardless, I still like Buffet's Wasting Away in Margeritaville. Great song.

Buffett like ...
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby drew » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 09:30:06

That's some unflattering light!

Somebody better get out the polish quick.

Goes to so you how little I know!

sigh...

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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 16:56:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'T')hat's some unflattering light!

Somebody better get out the polish quick.

Goes to so you how little I know!

sigh...

Drew



Dissapointing, wrote a longer reply which timed out. Wireless is still not stable.

Read everything you can and then make your own decisions. A guy like Buffet started out hungry, worked hard, sweated every decision, but as he gained wealth and fame, he started to delegate. As soon as he started to delegate, he started to gain insight from higher and higher levels, but he lost touch with the day to dday grubbiness which is trading. Aristocrats used to look down on common merchants. Later they sold their castles and estates to them. Days gone by, the wealthy clipped coupons, now they work.

But I digress. Buy a truck. Take it up north. Work from December until March moving oil rigs. Earn more than a banker. More than a politician. You are sitting where you can earn good money now. Later invest that money wisely. I think you are smart. I am sure you will do well. But back to Buffet. As soon as he stopped trading day in and day out he started to lose his feel for the market. Been there, done that, got it back. You are either close to it or not.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby Odin » Mon 13 Mar 2006, 02:34:43

There is nothing bad about economics. It's ideologes (*cough* Neo-Liberals *cough) who twist the numbers to agree with thier ideology. What I find disturbing is how right-wingers treat Capitalism and Free Market as synonyms. In reality, capitalism and the market are at odds with each other, the market is a pro-consumer entity while the capitalist system is pro-investor. It is anti-trust laws and other forms of regulation that keeps the two functioning together. A truely lassez-faire system is self distructive because without regulations there is nothing stopping all the capitalists joining togeth becoming one huge monopolisitic cartel-government that would create a quasi-command economy designed to maximize shareholder profits at the expense of consumers and Labor. This is why Globalization is so dangerous, it caused a race to the bottom that weakens the power of the state over the economy, creating a shift the balance of power away from the consumer and Labor to Capital, weakening democracy and strenghthening plutocracy.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby jaws » Mon 13 Mar 2006, 02:54:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Odin', 'A') truely lassez-faire system is self distructive because without regulations there is nothing stopping all the capitalists joining togeth becoming one huge monopolisitic cartel-government that would create a quasi-command economy designed to maximize shareholder profits at the expense of consumers and Labor.

Yes there is.
http://www.mises.org/rothbard/mes/chap9 ... alculation
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n short, if there were no market for a product, and all of its exchanges were internal, there would be no way for a firm or for anyone else to determine a price for the good. A firm can estimate an implicit price when an external market exists; but when a market is absent, the good can have no price, whether implicit or explicit. Any figure could be only an arbitrary symbol. Not being able to calculate a price, the firm could not rationally allocate factors and resources from one stage to another.

Since the free market always tends to establish the most efficient and profitable type of production (whether for type of good, method of production, allocation of factors, or size of firm), we must conclude that complete vertical integration for a capital­-good product can never be established on the free market (above the primitive level). For every capital good, there must be a definite market in which firms buy and sell that good. It is obvious that this economic law sets a definite maximum to the relative size of any particular firm on the free market.[57]Because of this law, firms cannot merge or cartelize for complete vertical integra­tion of stages or products. Because of this law, there can never be One Big Cartel over the whole economy or mergers until One Big Firm owns all the productive assets in the economy. The force of this law multiplies as the area of the economy increases and as islands of noncalculable chaos swell to the proportions of masses and continents. As the area of incalculability increases, the degrees of irrationality, misallocation, loss, impoverishment, etc., become greater. Under one owner or one cartel for the whole productive system, there would be no possible areas of calculation at all, and therefore complete economic chaos would prevail.[58]

One big cartel ruling the world economy would have the same problem that plagues the socialist economy: it would have no idea what the value of any of its capital goods are. It takes a market to establish this value. Thus if all the companies of the world merged into one big company it would become immediately unable to run itself and fail in its operations. Competitors would appear that would drive it out of business.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby rogerhb » Mon 13 Mar 2006, 03:32:47

Being the devil's advocate, even with a monopoly there is always a market because there is always the choice of not buying.

There is always vendor who has a free product that does nothing and has zero value and infinite supply of the good.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 13 Mar 2006, 06:05:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne big cartel ruling the world economy would have the same problem that plagues the socialist economy: it would have no idea what the value of any of its capital goods are. It takes a market to establish this value. Thus if all the companies of the world merged into one big company it would become immediately unable to run itself and fail in its operations. Competitors would appear that would drive it out of business.



I can sympathize with your point, but I believe that in the absense of any external market, we regress to the units of labor needed to produce the agricultural surplus needed to survive either individually or as an economic unit. In other word's a man's daily wages in the form of sweat equity which he can freely allocate toward's his own food production or exchange in return food.

So any internal price may be assertained in terms of hours worked to procure external resources or to add value internally. Part of the problem of the USSR was arbitrarily assigning values to wages and finished goods without properly calculating the costs of inputs in terms of labor and resources.

RE capitalism and market economy. Yes, they are often used interchangeably and that is incorrect. Somewhat like the term neo-con. Very few people actually know who the neo-cons were and instead use this as a label for Republicans. Again, incorrect. The original neo-cons were disaffected socialists who dispaired at what had become of socialist ideals in the USSR and tried to dissect possible lessons from this failed experiment. Obviously, Cheney is not that intellectual nor is he part of that school of thought. Only the label sticks.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby drew » Mon 13 Mar 2006, 09:24:03

Thanks for the kind comments the other day, MrBill. Just in case you didn't know I want to get away from the trucker lifestyle (yes there is one), not embrace it more fully by becoming a broker. I have been behind the wheel now 16 years, that's about a decade too much, imho. Why did you think I was playing the market so feverishly for anyways.... ;-)

As to today's discussion I think state control of markets to a certain degree is necessary to keep capitalism in check. I still believe Keynes was a good influence; the problem was, of course, not paying down debt in the good times to counteract deficit spending by govs during bad.

The asian tigers are examples too where state influnece was a positive thing.

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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 13 Mar 2006, 09:42:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'T')hanks for the kind comments the other day, MrBill. Just in case you didn't know I want to get away from the trucker lifestyle (yes there is one), not embrace it more fully by becoming a broker. I have been behind the wheel now 16 years, that's about a decade too much, imho. Why did you think I was playing the market so feverishly for anyways.... ;-)

As to today's discussion I think state control of markets to a certain degree is necessary to keep capitalism in check. I still believe Keynes was a good influence; the problem was, of course, not paying down debt in the good times to counteract deficit spending by govs during bad.

The asian tigers are examples too where state influnece was a positive thing.

Drew



I can understand where you're coming from. Would not be the lifestyle for me to be honest.

As for labels, this is an interesting description of neo-conservatism/neo-liberalism in Canada which is markedly different than in the USA for example.

Neoconservatism and neoliberalism in Canada

Of course, neo-conservatives in Canada might be called neo-liberals in the USA, and neo-liberals in Canada might be called neo-socialists in the USA ! ; - )

I like a smorgassboard approach.

Fiscal conservative. You can have any system you like, so long as you can pay for it. Governments must live within their means.

Economic liberal. That is I prefer market based solutions rather than government dictats.

Social liberal. In that I see little room for government to interfer in people's private lives. The less the better.

For instance, if you want to have universal healthcare, then you need some sort of minimum tax (preferably a flat tax in my opinion), and the healthcare should cover standard care, not elective. Then premiums and discounts should be charged based on lifestyle choices. If you have a rare, hereditary disease, your basic healthcare covers it. If you're overweight and smoke then your premiums go up. Etc. Rights and obligations in balance, not just universal rights.

Taxes in Canada are far too high and there are too many regional subsidies and wealth transfers. Far too socialistic and interventionalist for my liking. That is one reason why so many Canadians leave to work in the USA. Never the less, that is not to say there are not good points about the quality of life in Canada, too.
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