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Economics - Science or Religion?

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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 23:24:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I')f you make money on the free market by speculating not only are you not "screwing" anybody, you are doing them a favor!


This equates to 'hoarding', as well, ie, if you buy lots of stuff in the hope that prices rise due to scarcity. In certain situations this can earn you a lynching.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby jaws » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 23:49:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'T')his equates to 'hoarding', as well, ie, if you buy lots of stuff in the hope that prices rise due to scarcity. In certain situations this can earn you a lynching.


But by hoarding you prevented the consumption of goods at a point in time when they were relatively less scarce to make them available at a point in time when they are relatively more so, therefore you are doing people a favor. They might want to lynch you but that is why we need security against invasion.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 23:59:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'T')his equates to 'hoarding', as well, ie, if you buy lots of stuff in the hope that prices rise due to scarcity. In certain situations this can earn you a lynching.


But by hoarding you prevented the consumption of goods at a point in time when they were relatively less scarce to make them available at a point in time when they are relatively more so, therefore you are doing people a favor.


I'll remember you during a famine.

I'll save you the trouble of replying...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaws almost ', 'E')xcept of course, only socialists get famines.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby Zentric » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 01:46:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'T')his equates to 'hoarding', as well, ie, if you buy lots of stuff in the hope that prices rise due to scarcity. In certain situations this can earn you a lynching.


But by hoarding you prevented the consumption of goods at a point in time when they were relatively less scarce to make them available at a point in time when they are relatively more so, therefore you are doing people a favor. They might want to lynch you but that is why we need security against invasion.


Hey Jaws, you and me should get together on a business proposition. Your guys (e.g., Republicans) stockpile and guard food supplies in a certain region of the country and then my guys (actually extra-special Republicans) do something to disrupt the normal flow of food into that same region. Think of all the starving people we could make happy that way!

And it wouldn't have to stop at food, either! Gasoline, water, medical attention. Bwuh ha ha! I just love your "villainous" sense of humor. Thank you for just being you, Jaws!
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 05:08:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut that's not the FUNNY BIT.

The FUNNY BIT is that the Americans beg the Japanese, Indians and Chinese to screw them by actively seeking to outsource everything to save a few dollars. So a minority of Americans will benefit enomously while the majority will slowly but surely get screwed.


So long as they're enjoying it! You can screw some of the people some of the time, but you can't screw all of the people all of the time. Or something like that? ; - )

Well, Carver, I am doing my bit. I have been systematically taking billions of dollars out of the US economy and investing them in higher yeilding markets, paying interest on my carry trade, but ultimately investing the proceeds abroad as well. $500 million in the past quarter alone. All those personal savings are not going into US treasury bills or to pay taxes. Nope, they are outside of the US and hard at work. If I keep rolling them over, they never go home. If the carry trade is no longer profitable, I can close it, but invest that money in another asset. I live to second guess central banks and undermine governments, while rewarding those activities that generate wealth. Just keeping them honest. It is not a religion, but just a fun way to make a living. Bwahaha.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby Doly » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 05:54:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Well, Carver, I am doing my bit. I have been systematically taking billions of dollars out of the US economy and investing them in higher yeilding markets, paying interest on my carry trade, but ultimately investing the proceeds abroad as well.


I assume that this is just because it's the profitable trade, if investing in the US was more profitable, you'd take money from other countries to put it in the US, right?

I think that about sums up what's the problem with capitalism.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 06:35:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Well, Carver, I am doing my bit. I have been systematically taking billions of dollars out of the US economy and investing them in higher yeilding markets, paying interest on my carry trade, but ultimately investing the proceeds abroad as well.


I assume that this is just because it's the profitable trade, if investing in the US was more profitable, you'd take money from other countries to put it in the US, right?

I think that about sums up what's the problem with capitalism.


There probably are profitable trades in the US, but I do not live there, therefore it is hard for me to spot them. Leave it to someone else. I invest in emerging markets and energy. I take surplus savings out of the US where they would just get priced into over expensive real estate and put them to work elsewhere where they are needed.

That means emerging markets get to benefit from surplus capital. That is not a problem with capitalism, that is it's advantage.

Exporters are happy to lend the US dollars, but that creates too much liquidity, so US banks lend to companies like me to invest elsewhere (or they lend to European banks who lend to me). So long as I can put that money to profitable use everyone benefits.

When the carry trade is no longer profitable it is because likely local interest rates in those emerging countries have come down relative to the US. That is good for those countries. When I did the first ever local Eurobond issue in the Slovak Republic in SKK, interest rates were 21% p.a., now they are under 4%. When I bought Polish government bonds they were yielding 15%, now one year rates are 4%. When I invested in Czech Republic money markets they were 13%, now rates in the Czech Republic are lower than in the eurozone, just 2.20% p.a.

On the otherhand, irresponsible countries like Argentina that borrow more than they can repay, and then default, get left to swing in the wind. Why should I lend to a country that does not honor its debts? And pursues the wrong economic policies? At a certain point local inflation and local interest rates become so unattractive that no investor in their right mind would lend them money due to the risk of default. Then the government has to make much needed changes.

That is the strength of the system even if you do not like it. It rewards and it punishes.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 06:47:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Well, Carver, I am doing my bit. I have been systematically taking billions of dollars out of the US economy and investing them in higher yeilding markets, paying interest on my carry trade, but ultimately investing the proceeds abroad as well.


I assume that this is just because it's the profitable trade, if investing in the US was more profitable, you'd take money from other countries to put it in the US, right?

I think that about sums up what's the problem with capitalism.



These are not my opinions, but an example of how global markets function when allocating capital. Of course, investors also get it wrong and then either miss opportunities, in which case, local businessmen profit, or get over optomistic and risk a meltdown like happened in Russia in 1998.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ummary:

Russia: Possible Eurobond buy-back
S Bank does not expect an imminent announcement of a Eurobond buy-back programme by the Ministry of Finance. We expect this to occur after payment to the Paris Club creditors (excluding the part tied up in the Aries bonds). If, and when, the Eurobond buy-back programme is announced, we expect the Russia 30 to benefit the most. We advise investors not to wait for the announcement of the programme, but to accumulate Russian Eurobonds as spreads are expected to continue tightening. '

Turkey: Where is the value now?
S Bank views the spreads on the Turkish long bonds as too tight. We believe that investors should start taking profit by reducing durations and increasing their exposure in the short end. The best way would be to receive the fixed rate on the country’s 5-year credit default as this appears to be cheap relative to the bond market.

Israel: pre-empting the post-election shekel rally
We believe theUSD/ILS is swiftly approaching the end of an extended period of upside. We are switching out of our short shekel positions and we will be looking to accumulate long shekel positions, probably against the US dollar, for a multi-month move back to 4.40. We are less clear of the multi-week view, although we suspect any USD/ILS upside will be capped by a multi-year trend channel top around 4.775.

Zambia: Strong kwacha pushes yields lower
Zambias strong performance in copper mining, supported by higher copper prices, has arrested currency weakness since mid-2003. Currency appreciation was further enhanced after the country reached completion point under the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative in April 2005. Kwacha strength and an improvement in agricultural conditions have supported a significant decline in consumer inflation rates since the start of 2003 which have become more pronounced in recent months. Given this positive inflation scenario, S Bank continues to see value in the longer end of the yield curve.


It is a myth that global capital markets pass emerging markets by. We are all dying to invest in a winner. Show me a winner and I will invest in it. Show me an incompetent, corrupt local government, I won't touch it with your money.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby CARVER » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 07:14:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.').. That is the strength of the system even if you do not like it. It rewards and it punishes.


Yep it's like hitting a child for bad behavior, can be very effective. However it also hits the disabled child over and over again, for being just that: disabled, for not keeping up with the other kids. And both parents sometimes hit the child at the same time, and thus hitting way too hard and causing more damage than intended or neccessary. So it can be cruel as well, thus it might be better to come to an agreement to not keep hitting the disabled child, it ain't helping. And the parents might negotiate what would be the best punishment for the child, instead of both simultaneously hitting the child.

(I'm not sure hitting is the right analogy here, since there is no reward in that for those acting out the punishment ... at least I hope not)
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 07:23:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.').. That is the strength of the system even if you do not like it. It rewards and it punishes.


Yep it's like hitting a child for bad behavior, can be very effective. However it also hits the disabled child over and over again, for being just that: disabled, for not keeping up with the other kids. And both parents sometimes hit the child at the same time, and thus hitting way too hard and causing more damage than intended or neccessary. So it can be cruel as well, thus it might be better to come to an agreement to not keep hitting the disabled child, it ain't helping. And the parents might negotiate what would be the best punishment for the child, instead of both simultaneously hitting the child.

(I'm not sure hitting is the right analogy here, since there is no reward in that for those acting out the punishment ... at least I hope not)



Sorry, I can be cynical, but that is just the stupidist comment I have read on PO so far. To equate me with a child abuser is just too much. If you want to rant, rage against governments that rape and pillage their own people for their own private profit. I do not create bad governments and say what you like, but I am not corrupt even though I have worked in environments which were conducive to that type of behavior. Don't even bother replying.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBean » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 08:29:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')On the otherhand, irresponsible countries like Argentina that borrow more than they can repay, and then default, get left to swing in the wind. Why should I lend to a country that does not honor its debts? And pursues the wrong economic policies?


Not countries, but governements. Argentinians have done well rebuilding their country after the economy and governement corrupted by IMF debt and strings attached.

Certainly not left to swing in the wind, but paid of the IMF debt with Venezuelan debt (which the Chavez admin. then sold to local banks with good profit.)

I think most Argentinians are very happy they don't have to lend from you (ie. work to increase your profit margins), so they can pursue freely and free from foreign economic distortion the kinds of economic policies they feel are best for them, certainly better than the neoliberal IMF policies.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby CARVER » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 08:52:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')orry, I can be cynical, but that is just the stupidist comment I have read on PO so far. To equate me with a child abuser is just too much. If you want to rant, rage against governments that rape and pillage their own people for their own private profit. I do not create bad governments and say what you like, but I am not corrupt even though I have worked in environments which were conducive to that type of behavior. Don't even bother replying.


Sorry, but that was not at all my intention, if I did equate you with a child abuser then I was wrong. When I think of a child abuser, I think of a individual that punishes the child with excessive force for no good reason. Here the individual behavior and intention is wrong. What I tried to refer to is that it is possible to have individual behaviors that are not wrong by themselves (can even be good by themselves) that together form a collective behavior that is wrong. Not because it is their intention to do wrong, but because they are not organised and as a result their collective behavior is not under control. (For example a market that overshoots). The intention might differ, but the result can be the same, and that is what is so scary. If we only would have had to worry about peole with bad intentions, then things would be a lot easier. But also people with good intentions and high intelligence, can together create unintended bad results no matter how hard they try to do the good thing, because it is just so difficult to get the desired result when there is no control and it takes too long to react, not because they have the wrong ideas, but it appears to be just too difficult to get it right this way. It's like flying an airplane where noone has control and coordinates our actions and there is no protocol, we all know where we want to go and we all want to go to the same place, we all know how to operate our controls. But if our actions are not coordinated and we don't know what the others are about to do then our simultaneous actions will not result in a smooth flight and we might even crash. The endresult would be the same as when a terrorist would hijack the plane and run it into the ground. That doesn't mean I equate the members of the flightcrew with a terrorist.

I want to be clear that I am not accusing you of doing wrong. I just wanted to point out that individuals with good intentions and in themsleves good behavior, together can still create a collective bad behavior. And you can't point to individuals and say that their behavior is to blame, because it is not, it is only the collective behavior that forms the problem and we are all a part of that, me included. And so it is also understandable that none of us have a strong feeling that our behavior is part of the problem. That's what I've been trying to say in this thread. If I have insulted MrBill and maybe also others, I apologise for that, it was not my intention.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 10:07:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') want to be clear that I am not accusing you of doing wrong. I just wanted to point out that individuals with good intentions and in themsleves good behavior, together can still create a collective bad behavior. And you can't point to individuals and say that their behavior is to blame, because it is not, it is only the collective behavior that forms the problem and we are all a part of that, me included. And so it is also understandable that none of us have a strong feeling that our behavior is part of the problem. That's what I've been trying to say in this thread. If I have insulted MrBill and maybe also others, I apologise for that, it was not my intention.



No worries. I agree that good intentions can have unintended consequences and that benign neglect can have equally negative implications as doing the wrong thing. Have a nice weekend.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby rogerhb » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 16:32:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') agree that good intentions can have unintended consequences and that benign neglect can have equally negative implications as doing the wrong thing.


I will happily equate "internation money traders" with "child abusers" and worse. Just because you sit in a cosy office with a computer screen and every thing you do is legal does not mean that you are in no way responsible for economies being trashed.

Sure, you can recite your mantra about greed is good and it's human nature but when real people lose their jobs, savings and houses they will happily agree that you are indeed a greedy person, and that if you got off your fat arse and moved from your cosy office and were prepared to fly and explain why it was right to trash a nations economy I'm sure they would understand.

Yeah, whine about how stressful it is, and how long you work, and how you have had a hard day but no, the child abuser simile stands.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby jaws » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 17:40:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'I') will happily equate "internation money traders" with "child abusers" and worse. Just because you sit in a cosy office with a computer screen and every thing you do is legal does not mean that you are in no way responsible for economies being trashed.

Sure, you can recite your mantra about greed is good and it's human nature but when real people lose their jobs, savings and houses they will happily agree that you are indeed a greedy person, and that if you got off your fat arse and moved from your cosy office and were prepared to fly and explain why it was right to trash a nations economy I'm sure they would understand.

You are confused about his role though. He is not trashing anybody's economy, the central banks are. All he's doing is taking back stolen capital and making it useful again.

The blame, as always, lies entirely with the political body.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby rogerhb » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 17:47:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'H')e is not trashing anybody's economy, the central banks are. All he's doing is taking back stolen capital and making it useful again.


Which in normal circles is called "fencing", "dealing in stolen property" or "aiding and abetting".
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby jaws » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 17:55:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'W')hich in normal circles is called "fencing", "dealing in stolen property" or "aiding and abetting".

If in our society it was illegal to do business with the government then we would all be forced to starvation, as the governmetn controls nearly everything.

You have no choice to deal with the thieves, you might as well get something useful done in the process.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby rogerhb » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 18:04:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'Y')ou have no choice to deal with the thieves, you might as well get something useful done in the process.


That is certainly the American way.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter the seizures in late 1942 of five U.S. enterprises he managed on behalf of Nazi industrialist Fritz Thyssen, Prescott Bush, the grandfather of President George W. Bush, failed to divest himself of more than a dozen "enemy national" relationships that continued until as late as 1951, newly-discovered U.S. government documents reveal.

Furthermore, the records show that Bush and his colleagues routinely attempted to conceal their activities from government investigators.

Bush's partners in the secret web of Thyssen-controlled ventures included former New York Governor W. Averell Harriman and his younger brother, E. Roland Harriman. Their quarter-century of Nazi financial transactions, from 1924-1951, were conducted by the New York private banking firm, Brown Brothers Harriman.

.....

Although the additional seizures under the Trading with the Enemy Act did not take place until after the war, documents from The National Archives and Library of Congress confirm that Bush and his partners continued their Nazi dealings unabated. These activities included a financial relationship with the German city of Hanover and several industrial concerns. They went undetected by investigators until after World War Two.
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The Parable of the Money Trader

Unread postby rogerhb » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 18:18:27

The Parable of the Money Trader

It was a dark and stormy night, the Money Trader was walking home down the lane, he only had a couple of miles to go, and he was tired and was trying to get the thoughts of his ulcers and recent heartattack out of his mind.
He came to the ford, but the stream was swollen. While considering how to get across without getting his feet wet he noticed a scuffle in the stream, one of the local hoodlums was trying to drown one of the peasant farmers from the village in the stream. After a quick assessment, he then stepped on the peasant's back to get across the stream.
Finally he reached home, on unlocking the door he paused and thanked his luck that he was able to make the best of a bad situation.
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Re: Economics - Science or Religion?

Unread postby MrBill » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 11:51:49

It takes all kinds doesn't it? I just feel sorry for you Roger. There's not really much else to add. Have a nice life.
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