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THE Greenland Thread (merged)

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Re: Global Warming: worse than you think?

Unread postby PWALPOCO » Fri 17 Feb 2006, 20:08:15

Worse than I think ?

For about 12 months now everything to do with the climate , or the ice melting has featured ....

[align=center]Quicker
Sooner
Faster
Worse[/align]

basically eveytime theres an estimate of something , its usually something bad will happen in half the time we thought , or itll be twice as high as we thought or it will be twice as hot as we thought ... or there will be twice as much as we thought.

And even better , when I read discussion about the fixes , some say if we totally stop doing this that or the other , weve already stowed up trouble for the next god knows how long.

Basically now when I hear estimates about how long somethings going to take to happen , I just halve it , coz thats what the next estimate will say when it appears.

The classic was reading about the ocean conveyor system throwing a wobbler. Oh that thing ? From that film The Day After Whenever ? Oh sure , it can happen , in a bazillion years ..... oh wait , somethings happening already ? Darn.

As far as Im concerned , the environments had it. I see absolutely no way anything meaningful is going to happen until something so monsterously catastrophic and blatantly "climate change" induced happens. Fullstop.

The warning signals are all there. If planet earth were a human patient the village doctor would be looking rather worried at the vital signs and calling an ambulance to get it off to intensive care. As far as I can see , the village doctor is the village idiot , prescribed a placebo and sent the coughing patient home to die.

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Re: Global Warming: worse than you think?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 17 Feb 2006, 20:41:39

Yes, if you keep up with the recent reports from those looking at the sea ice and its effects, this is all happening much much faster than the climatologists expected. Far from being wacky doomsayers, seems they were mostly being far too conservative in their projections.

8O
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Re: Global Warming: worse than you think?

Unread postby TheTurtle » Fri 17 Feb 2006, 20:47:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ') Far from being wacky doomsayers, seems they were mostly being far too conservative in their projections.

8O


That line gives me such warm fuzzies ... :-D
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Re: Global Warming: worse than you think?

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 17 Feb 2006, 21:49:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PWALPOCO', 'W')orse than I think ?

For about 12 months now everything to do with the climate , or the ice melting has featured ....

[align=center]Quicker
Sooner
Faster
Worse[/align]

basically eveytime theres an estimate of something , its usually something bad will happen in half the time we thought , or itll be twice as high as we thought or it will be twice as hot as we thought ... or there will be twice as much as we thought.

And even better , when I read discussion about the fixes , some say if we totally stop doing this that or the other , weve already stowed up trouble for the next god knows how long.

Basically now when I hear estimates about how long somethings going to take to happen , I just halve it , coz thats what the next estimate will say when it appears.

The classic was reading about the ocean conveyor system throwing a wobbler. Oh that thing ? From that film The Day After Whenever ? Oh sure , it can happen , in a bazillion years ..... oh wait , somethings happening already ? Darn.

As far as Im concerned , the environments had it. I see absolutely no way anything meaningful is going to happen until something so monsterously catastrophic and blatantly "climate change" induced happens. Fullstop.

The warning signals are all there. If planet earth were a human patient the village doctor would be looking rather worried at the vital signs and calling an ambulance to get it off to intensive care. As far as I can see , the village doctor is the village idiot , prescribed a placebo and sent the coughing patient home to die.

Paul


It's becoming "quicker, sooner, faster, worse" because global warming is a classic positive-feedback loop. In other words, the warmer it gets, the warmer it's going to get. The process feeds on itself, particularly as new causative factors become entrained, such as Arctic bacteria.
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby mekrob » Fri 17 Feb 2006, 21:59:06

Now why would Bush want to silence his great "Liberation" of the water from the wicked and evil ice?
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Re: Global Warming: worse than you think?

Unread postby Antimatter » Sat 18 Feb 2006, 00:08:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')es, if you keep up with the recent reports from those looking at the sea ice and its effects, this is all happening much much faster than the climatologists expected. Far from being wacky doomsayers, seems they were mostly being far too conservative in their projections.

8O


Maybe, but the media tends to only grab hold of the DOOM stories that tell us everything is getting worse. For example a recent study predicting less sea level rise than most previous estimates got relatively little coverage:

http://www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,17959639%255E912,00.html
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Re: Global Warming: worse than you think?

Unread postby katkinkate » Sat 18 Feb 2006, 04:35:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PWALPOCO', '.')..... If planet earth were a human patient the village doctor would be looking rather worried at the vital signs and calling an ambulance to get it off to intensive care. As far as I can see , the village doctor is the village idiot , prescribed a placebo and sent the coughing patient home to die.

Paul


Sorry Paul, have to disagree with you there. The planet earth isn't what's in danger of dying. It just has a overgrowth of some organism causing a really nasty-looking rash. The doctor is more likely to order a medicated bath to wipe out the intrusive organism. Its us humans in danger of dying. The planet and what's left of the life on it will live on for millions of years yet.
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby untothislast » Sat 18 Feb 2006, 05:10:18

Part of our problem, as humans, is that we insist on interpreting everything in nature from a point where people are fixed at the centre. Our religions have even been devised to interpret the vast expanse of the universe as merely a stage created for humans to strut upon.

The fact is, there are millions lifeforms on this planet, going about quite successfully, without even noticing we exist. More to the point they, being less demanding for their needs on the natural environment than we are, will amble alng quite happily long after we've gone.

We are part of a larger organism - we don't just live on it, as if it were a chunk of real estate. Our inability to deal with this crucial distinction lies at the root of every problem we've ever created for ourselves. Our time maybe nearly up. Something else comes to the forefront. That's the way it works. Sad to relate, but the planet may do a lot better - to continue sustaining the lives of all its other less-destructive children - without us around.

'I met a traveler from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed,
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look upon my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.'

Shelley.
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby kochevnik » Sun 19 Feb 2006, 16:44:07

:!:

I think there is some clear scientific evidence that Global Warming is a very debateable theory - and it is JUST a theory, not a fact. Crichton's book for one really put a lot of global warming faddists on notice that they were on thin ice (pun intended). For example Greenland has been both cooling and adding millions of tons of ice onto the interior ice sheet for many decades. Crichton finished his book with HUNDREDS of references to scientific evidence that supports the idea that global warming is not all it seems to be.

I don't know what the truth is, but anything that gets such widespread hysterical approval with such dubious science behind it moves my bullshit meter to the top of the scale. In comparison, PO has a mountain of scientific proof behind it - yet look how few people there are in the world supporting this position.
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby coyote » Mon 20 Feb 2006, 14:52:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:

I think there is some clear scientific evidence that Global Warming is a very debateable theory - and it is JUST a theory, not a fact. Crichton's book for one really put a lot of global warming faddists on notice that they were on thin ice (pun intended). For example Greenland has been both cooling and adding millions of tons of ice onto the interior ice sheet for many decades. Crichton finished his book with HUNDREDS of references to scientific evidence that supports the idea that global warming is not all it seems to be.

I don't know what the truth is, but anything that gets such widespread hysterical approval with such dubious science behind it moves my bullshit meter to the top of the scale. In comparison, PO has a mountain of scientific proof behind it - yet look how few people there are in the world supporting this position.

I'm sorry Kockevnik, but you're quite mistaken. And so is Michael Crichton, his credibility went way down with 'State of Fear.' There is a tremendous amount of evidence, not just that global warming is a fact, but that its causes are at least largely anthropogenic. "Dubious science"? There is a near worldwide consensus among scientists on this issue, the likes of which are rarely seen in the scientific community. We're talking about the National Academy of Science, the Royal Academies of Science, the National Research Council, the U.S. Global Change Research Information Office, NASA Langley Research Center, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, the World Meteorological Organization, the Environmental Protection Agency, MIT, etc. etc. Check out this thread:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic16648.html

...and follow the links to the very solid sources referenced. Before your 'bullshit meter' goes too haywire, may I respectfully suggest that some actual research is in order.

Incidentally: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic16002.html
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby Liamj » Mon 20 Feb 2006, 18:56:06

No disrespect Kochevnik, but I'm wondering how long the professional climate change deniers like M.Crighton will persist in their doubt. Till the UK Houses of Parliament flood? Till malaria makes Cornwall uninhabitable? Till the winter olympics have to be cancelled for lack of snow? Till the RightThink Tanks stop funding their books & talks?
The material evidence is overwhelming that our climate is changing at a fairly brisk clip. Arguments about the mechanisms (see neoliberals sudden and inarticulate enthusiasm for solar flares and polar wobbles) are important, but theres no denying we live in meteorologically unique times.
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby grabby » Tue 21 Feb 2006, 22:49:41

Ok, I haven't heard that one yet,,,

tell us about arctic bacteria?
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 21 Feb 2006, 23:11:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is a near worldwide consensus among scientists on this issue, the likes of which are rarely seen in the scientific community


I'm sorry but I have to repeat myself for the upteenth millionth time...there is no concensus....there was never a vote taken. Concensus implies everyone agrees, the fact that there is considerable decent on just about every aspect of the various topics in climate science including models, paleoclimate interpretation, forcings, feedback etc. suggests to me there is little in the way of concensus. The closest thing you could say that there is to concensus is that the earth is warming....how much human influence is involved in that is a major point of dispute...some argue it is simply a fact that we are coming out of a glaciation and mini-cold spell in the seventies, others would argue it all has to do with CO2 others would say we have some affect due to heat island increases etc.

For a bit of eveness in the information flow I think in addition to pointing to your thread on Lets clear this up in which none of the normal dissenters bothered to post it might be worthwhile pointing to other threads on climate science such as the humans cause global warming thread which I think have posts from people arguing from the other side.

At least give people a chance to see both sides of the argument before they jump on a bandwagon.
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby coyote » Wed 22 Feb 2006, 02:00:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'I')'m sorry but I have to repeat myself for the upteenth millionth time...there is no concensus....there was never a vote taken. Concensus implies everyone agrees...

Okay, fair enough, I'll stop using the word 'consensus.' It does seem that most reputable scientific entities are in agreement. But you're right, 'consensus' does imply 'everyone.' My bad.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'F')or a bit of eveness in the information flow I think in addition to pointing to your thread on Lets clear this up in which none of the normal dissenters bothered to post it might be worthwhile pointing to other threads on climate science such as the humans cause global warming thread which I think have posts from people arguing from the other side.

At least give people a chance to see both sides of the argument before they jump on a bandwagon.

Pointing to my thread was the action but not the point. The point was pointing to all the referenced sources so they wouldn't have to be posted again. But yes, I certainly agree with reading all the relevant threads in the Environment forum.

I respect your opinion, you're certainly more of an expert than I am; but I'm still waiting for someone to actually visit those sources, and then come back and convince the board that they know more about climate change than all those scientific institutions do. Fair enough?
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby gg3 » Wed 22 Feb 2006, 08:23:48

The consequences of a mistaken belief that climate change is unproven, are far worse than the consequences of a mistaken belief that climate change is occurring and caused by humans.

Simple pragmatism says 'tis better to take a conservative approach here (operate under the unfavorable assumptions) rather than take a wild risky gamble that may not be possible to undo.

This is basic business planning 101: always plan based on unfavorable scenarios, rather than favorable ones.

Anyone who doesn't agree is welcome to send me a check for the amount of money presently in their savings accounts and investment accounts. I promise I'll get you a yield of 50% in a year. Any takers...?
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 22 Feb 2006, 11:58:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') respect your opinion, you're certainly more of an expert than I am; but I'm still waiting for someone to actually visit those sources, and then come back and convince the board that they know more about climate change than all those scientific institutions do. Fair enough?


Hey Coyote...no problema....I am certainly not an expert either, although I have the background that makes ploughing through much of the paleoclimatology literature pretty straightforward. I am one of those guys who believes that somewhere beyond all the rhetoric coming from politicians and scientists who have a particular axe to grind there exists a considerable amount of important evidence that if one were to start to put it all together in a very unbiased fashion that the results could be quite important. Unfortunately both sides of the argument are partly populated by scientists who have financial gain involved in supporting a particular theory. Although people seem to be slamming Crichton for one reason or another I think his underlying message is not that much different....let's do the science and forget the politics and scare mongering.
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Re: Greenland Icecap On the Edge

Unread postby Odin » Sun 26 Feb 2006, 21:03:37

Climate Change deniers are in the same catagory as creationists and holocaust deniers.
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The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics only applies in a closed system; Earth is NOT a closed system.
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Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 03:50:17

Greenland's Ice Sheet Is Slip-Sliding Away

In early May, temperatures on the ice cap some days were almost 20 degrees above normal, hovering just below freezing.

From cores of ancient Greenland ice extracted by the National Science Foundation, researchers have identified at least 20 sudden climate changes in the last 110,000 years, in which average temperatures fluctuated as much as 15 degrees in a single decade.


Normal warming, or human-induced this time? If we're doing it, will it be worse than a normal fluctuation? If the melt keeps accelerating, could the inrush of fresh water screw up the Gulf Stream and cause it to stop, bringing horrendously cold winters to Europe?

All we can be sure of is that this can't be good.
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby shakespear1 » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 03:56:51

Yes, I read this and felt a bit uneasy and helpless. Amazing how none of this seems to sink in anywhere.

I sometime discuss issues of over fishing, pollution, genetically modified food etc. and see that a lot of this just does not seem real or of immediate relevance to most peop 8)
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Re: Greenland ice sheet melt is accelerating

Unread postby Raxozanne » Mon 26 Jun 2006, 04:12:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '[')url=http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-greenland25jun25,0,1900887,full.story?coll=la-home-headlines]Greenland's Ice Sheet Is Slip-Sliding Away[/url]

In early May, temperatures on the ice cap some days were almost 20 degrees above normal, hovering just below freezing.

From cores of ancient Greenland ice extracted by the National Science Foundation, researchers have identified at least 20 sudden climate changes in the last 110,000 years, in which average temperatures fluctuated as much as 15 degrees in a single decade.



That's a huge jump in temperature. Seriously, if Greenland melts then a lot of humanity is going to go underwater (especially in the Bangladeshi flood plains).
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