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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Precious Metals Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby Helios » Mon 31 Oct 2005, 10:39:10

Also, lets not forget about Platinum. The US Mint also products platinum coins. Kitco Complete Bullion
I started "investing" in silver and gold coins for these reasons and more:
1. The two richest people in America are betting against the dollar. and Bill Gates and Warren Buffet
They are interested in foreign currency (Euro). But, the dollar recently staged a comeback.

2. Inflationary Worries. As the purchasing power of the dollar goes down, the value of PM goes up offsetting the higher cost of goods during an inflation.
I am worried about inflation because of the massive amounts of foreign debt we hold was well as the effect of higher energy prices on the economy.

3. Silver being undervalued. Google
I chose modern bullion coins because they are more recognizable, and are illegal to counterfeit. (They are still considered US Currency). Bars and ingots may be assayed when you sell them to ensure mineral content.
The down side to coins is that you have to pay a premium for them (more than the spot price of the PM.)
I would also store them in an insured safe deposit box. Some banks will give you a complimentary safe deposit box.

I am not going crazy buying as much as I can. Just a little here and there. It is never a good idea to put all you eggs on one basket.
I also suggest reading The Coming Collapse Of The Dollar. It explains how fiat currencies always fail because the governments can't resist printing new money.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby datapencil » Tue 07 Feb 2006, 13:52:22

Well if our economy crashes and the banks are broke, I would think it would be much more useful to buy a large amount of small silver pieces. This is just for practical purposes on a more elemental level.
For example: if I need to barter with someone for a bit of food or whatever, I would much rather be able to trade 1 silver piece for it. If all I had was gold I would be stuck paying a lot more for something small.
Just a thought! :-D
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby thuja » Tue 07 Feb 2006, 16:43:09

Yup- I'm fond of some silver in coins but I'd love to have enough money to buy a few big bars. Seeing as gold/silver took a correction nosedive today, I'd say its a great time to buy.
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby scw86 » Tue 07 Feb 2006, 18:41:53

This might be off topic but what do you guys think about the dramatic drop in gold and silver today. Down $20 for gold and silver down nearly 50cents. I don't usually pay attention to daily fluxes, but $20 is a big drop. :(
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby Jellric » Tue 07 Feb 2006, 19:44:15

Sounds like profit-taking to me. The long term trend is clearly UP.
The trend is your friend.
If you see gold/silver make a strong upwards move tomorrow you'll know that's what it is- people buying on the dips.
I've read that for asset preservation purposes one should stay away from silver. The rational is, unlike gold, silver is heavily used in manufacturing. In an economic colapse, or deep recession/depression, the industrial demand for silver will fall significantly driving excess silver supply on the market thus lowering its value.

Silver is used in manufacturing, but consider this: Unlike gold, when silver is used it's gone forever. Couple that with the fact (as someone mentioned) that the above-ground stores of silver are virtually gone you have the stage for a silver bull market for years to come no matter what the economy does. Any fall in demand for industrial applications will likely be more than offset by demand for its use as a safe store of value.

See the link below for a surprising look at a possible imminent silver shortage.
Peak silver anyone? Link
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby Silverharp » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 10:14:52

It really depends what happens, I bought about 2500oz of silver in 04 for $6.50. I wouldn't add to my position unless it dropped back to $7, there is a risk that the market would treat it like a commodity and dump it if there is a recession, after all it is tech funds that are driving the prices at the moment. it's rise as a monetary metal would only happen afterwards (maybe) , in the long run silver is a useful metal especially in solar cells etc. and if energy prices keep going up then mining will become more expensive. but again 40% of silver is used in photography and silver jewellary, which would be that last thing on peoples minds if TSHTF
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Re: Buying Silver?

Unread postby topcat » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 15:01:17

I take a diarrhea approach.
Some pre-64 coins, some silver eagles, some 10 oz bars, and some 1 oz gold coins.
All are hedges for inflation, and also are like insurance against tshtf (buy it and hope you never have to use it).
The pre-64's are for buying your bread and butter, while the gold is for buying your butt out of dodge.
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Silver Explosion Sooner Than We Think

Unread postby directinfo » Fri 28 Apr 2006, 10:33:50

This chart "scared to death" silver guru Franklin Sanders (his words).
He said in his latest subscription that he didn't anticipate an explosion in silver for another 2-3 years.
But then he looked at a chart with an overlay of the previous silver boom.

It all started after silver passed 10 dollars.
He carefully notes that history never repeats exactly, but it tends to cycle through similar patterns.
So there you go... more huge, big, upside news for silver and zero downside. No chance to lose on this one. A rare moment in history.
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Re: Silver Explosion Sooner Than We Think

Unread postby Micki » Fri 28 Apr 2006, 11:16:15

Never assume zero downside.
Especially with the new (iShare) Silver ETF managed by Barclays and JP Morgan - huge silver bears who may use the eft deposited silver to short sell.
On a longer term...the bear steak will be fried.
But meanwhile leveraged positions need to be carefully managed.

I've also been having some frustrating times with my cfd broker (IG Markets) who have been fluctuating the Silver spread between 5 and 30 cents, making it impossible to set decent stop losses on recently opened positions.
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Re: Silver Explosion Sooner Than We Think

Unread postby directinfo » Fri 28 Apr 2006, 14:23:22

Zero downside in physical silver. Silver can't go to zero, as will do eventually all stocks and funds and dollars.
A structural deficit exists in silver. (lots of paper and not a lot of physical silver above ground).
Silver has an inelastic demand in industrial use, unlike gold.

Silver is the mankind's 6,000 year old currency. The US dollar will go the way of the Roman drachma... soon enough at this rate.
Margin is risky in this volitile market.
Take physical. Paper burns.
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Re: Silver Explosion Sooner Than We Think

Unread postby kmann » Fri 28 Apr 2006, 15:00:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e carefully notes that history never repeats exactly, but it tends to cycle through similar patterns.

Is someone manipulating the silver market like the Hunt brothers were during the '80s?
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Re: Silver Explosion Sooner Than We Think

Unread postby Micki » Sat 29 Apr 2006, 21:03:07

Sure is.
Silver and Gold shorted in massive amounts by Gldman, JP Morgan, Mitsubishi etc.
It has been going on for years now to support US$ and Stock market.
I am however greasing up my frying pan for some bear steak.

I am sure you can find lots of info in this forum.
Otherwise check out gata.org and lemetropolecafe.com
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Re: Silver Explosion Sooner Than We Think

Unread postby Schweinshaxe » Sun 30 Apr 2006, 00:38:01

Let's say I have a few € in a drawer.

What do you think about this?:
Invest 2/3 of it in silver at goldmoney.com
Invest 1/3 of it as physical gold which I keep at home.
Would that be a good strategy? The best thing would of course be to keep the silver at home as well, but I mean gold is much easier to hide.
I've been scanning PO.com and the web for opinions about goldmoney.com and it seems to work.
Was soll das?
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Re: Silver Explosion Sooner Than We Think

Unread postby Micki » Sun 30 Apr 2006, 01:21:23

Sounds OK.
Goldmoney seems reputable and offers a good service.

With this type of investments you however can't jump in and out.
You basically need to park the money and ignore what the market is doing on the short term.
So make sure you don't put in money that you may have to withdraw during a slump. (Yes the gold cartel is fiting with their fists to keep the price down and there will be periods of profit taking from short term investors.)

If you need access to yor money, it is better to invest in paper gold, but that opens a whole new can of risk worms.
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Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.

Unread postby Dukat_Reloaded » Sun 14 May 2006, 17:03:38

I believe there will be a large sell off this week bring Oil down to $65, Gold $650, Copper close to $3.

There is so much speculation in the commodity index that it appears people can no longer afford them and are switching to other products.

The fact is the Fundamentals are now way out of wack, funds have pushed prices to levels which the consumers can't afford.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')opper has doubled in price this year even though industrial demand is flat.

"This is fairyland," said Richard Elman, head of the Noble Group. "We have

never seen such a disconnect between reality and pricing

of raw materials. The long-term story is sound but the short-term froth is patently frightening."

William Adams, an analyst at BaseMetals.com, said demand for copper tubes was collapsing as producers switched to PVC plastics. The market in Germany has halved from 90,000 to 45,000 tonnes. "There's a very rapid switch from copper. When it turns, copper could easily drop $1,000 a tonne in one day," he said.

David Threlkeld, a veteran copper trader, said the market had been "out of control" for months, allowing speculators to run roughshod over industrial producers and users. "The LME has been seduced by hedge funds, [which have] pushed prices to levels unsupported by fundamentals. There's a vacuum below and the crash could set off a chain of margin calls running through the whole commodities sector. We've got a crisis on our hands and it is a lot bigger than copper," he said.


If your in some highly speculative long positions in Gold mining or gold on margin, I would get out soon, if you have bullion, keep hold on it. I think oil will goto $65 this week and lower after that. $70 oil is effecting economies, people are driving less and it is effecting demand. Demand is going down, but prices are rising, production is increasing but still the price has recently been rising. The fundamentals are out of wack, expect a crash in all these prices.
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Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.

Unread postby americandream » Sun 14 May 2006, 17:46:17

You mean a trampoline bounce......lol..the Chindian locomotive has left the station bound for the American way of life...and nothing is going to stop 2.5 billion people with a history of trading as long as your arm and a hunger for the glitz from getting a slice of the action....sorry.....world assets are not going to go back to the prices they once enjoyed....if you believe that you're plain ol kidding yourself.
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Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.

Unread postby basketballjones » Sun 14 May 2006, 18:25:27

ask him where he has his clients stocks. i bet they're in the broader stock market.

i don't know about oil and copper, but i'm confident gold will close the week higher. the gold supression scheme is coming undone and is the reason behind the recent runup and will continue to be one of the main drivers behind the continuing increase.
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Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.

Unread postby o2ny » Sun 14 May 2006, 18:44:53

The gold-bug response: Gold May Rally for 10th Straight Week; Jim Rogers Expects $1,000 an Ounce

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ighteen of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to Chicago on May 11 and May 12 advised buying gold, which rose $27.50 to $711.80 last week in New York. Five recommended selling. Five were neutral.

Gold is up 31 percent the past two months, and Quantum Fund co-founder Jim Rogers says prices may reach $1,000. Investment in shares of the StreetTracks Gold Trust, which is linked to the price of gold, on May 12 swelled to $8.1 billion, the most since the fund began trading in November 2004.


I know Warren Buffett has recently said there is a speculative bubble in oil and metals. This might be true short-term, but how peak-aware is Buffet? I made my investments in metal/oils because of peak oil, and I still don't think speculation about the peak has significantly effected prices yet...
"If you're always looking for the invisible hand to guide you, you will find that the invisible hand often gives you the invisible finger." - some guy on CNBC
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Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.

Unread postby Dukat_Reloaded » Sun 14 May 2006, 18:52:56

americandream.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')opper surged this week to an all-time high of $8,875 a tonne, rising almost 10pc on Thursday. Yet futures prices for April 2011 are just $3,778 a tonne.


If you believe prices are going up forever, why don't you buy copper for April 2011 delivery, it is a bargin.
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Re: Oil, Gold, Copper will all fall this week.

Unread postby oilluber » Sun 14 May 2006, 19:18:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukat_Reloaded', 'a')mericandream.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')opper surged this week to an all-time high of $8,875 a tonne, rising almost 10pc on Thursday. Yet futures prices for April 2011 are just $3,778 a tonne.


If you believe prices are going up forever, why don't you buy copper for April 2011 delivery, it is a bargin.

= trade of the decade
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