http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... s_oil.html
It has been suggested that the CIA has been aware of the issue of peak oil for decades and used that information strategically... The peaking of oil production of USSR (and income) was anticipated in the 70's by the CIA. It is suggested that this peaking was used strategically to facilitate the collapse of the Solviet Union (by witholding oil extracting equipment, escalating an expensive arms race, fueling proxy wars, and keeping Solviet oil income low through massive increases in OPEC oil output). This begs the question... Is current US strategy (no conservation, no public transport, no alternatives to oil) more intelligently designed and strategic than it seems? Is our current course actually felt to be strategically benificial for the US? I say this partially out of hope, partially out of paranoia, and partially because I'm wondering if our current course may in fact be beneficial to the US for strategic reasons that aren't commonly discussed. How?
-A nation's industry, wealth and prosperity are linked to oil consumption, ie. the US has 5% of the world's population but uses 25% of the oil
-Oil surplus is a one time event... it is being produced now, and will be used to increase some nation's power (might as well be us).
-Aggressive conservation in the us would free up oil for use in other nations (fueling their growth, strenght and prosperity). It is better that it is used up by us than used in other countries.
-The longer the MiddleEast has huge supplies of oil, the longer they will have huge income and influence. If they sold oil at a price reflecting it's value the Middle East would be the center of world power (superpower)... Better to use it up quickly, before they realize it.
-Economic Growth in China so close to peak, on an oil-intense model, is unsustainable. Exponential growth (threatening) will not happen. Full industrialization will be aborted before it can fully materialize... So, no harm in exporting industry there... After peak, labor/manufacturing in China on a scale restrained by PeakOil will remain beneficial to the US rather than threatening.
-As prices escalate second and third world consumers will be priced out of driving long before first world consumers are... in part because wages in those countries are lower and in part because government subsidies which keep gasoline affordable will become unsustainable and will be discontinued (demand destruction for them, increased supply for us). THIS is the period to be used to increase efficiency and ramp up alternatives.
-In the event of a worldwide recession/depression following PeakOil, supplies will be freed up which will, relatively, be most affordable to the US.
I'm just "thinking out loud" here, trying to see a stragegy beyond short sighted consumerism. What if greed, consumerism and complete lack of an energy plan on a global scale is in fact "the plan," that results in the best possible outcome for the US in the face of PeakOil... that it is at least on some level strategic and planned?
PS- I have doubts that Regan's stragegy (escalation, star-wars) was any more nuanced or strategic than it seemed at that time, and that peak oil or economic collapse was far from his mind... anyway, IF there might have been a larger plan then, might there be now?
Thanks for any thoughts,
Cornholio (aka ChicknLittle)