[MonteQuest]

Over the holidays, I was thinking about the need for action with regard to peak oil. Because, no matter what camp you are in, not much is happening or being done. Or is it?

We know that TPTB know at least as much about peak oil as we do here on peakoil.com. We know from the Hirsch Report that a 10 to 20 year pre-peak mitigation is required. We know that no current technology can ramp up at the last minute to replace fossil fuels once they go into terminal decline. And we know nothing is being ramped up now, or is planned to be ramped up in the foreseeable future. No energy efficiency or conservation efforts are being advocated. In fact, consumerism is being advocated by the US government.

We know no one knows the URR's. (Ultimate recoverable reserves) We know no one knows what the rate of decline will be. So, I’m left with but a few conclusions:
1. TPTB think “peak oil” is way down the road, thus not a priority.
2. TPTB have some readily scalable “new oil energy source” up their sleeve.
3. TPTB see peak oil as imminent and are acting, having duly considered all the options available.
I think #3 is the only real candidate for reality.

But what are they doing, you ask? Engaging in, and preparing to fight over the remaining fossil fuel reserves of the world, knowing that it is too late to develop alternatives.

If you think about it, the easiest way to continue the status quo is to do just that. Especially as the world’s only super power. There is lots of oil remaining. Peak oil won't happen if we can get more than our share. It's not like this is some new novel idea, is it?

Remember, “The American way of life is not negotiable.” Does someone else have a better explanation?

[Seadragon]

Dammit, why do you always read my mind? I've been thinking about this for the past week. My vote: resource wars, with a secret plan to screw the rest of us coming in second. Explains the Iraq debacle, the upcoming Iran/Israel conflict. One thing's sure: they aren't going to deal with this in a straightforward manner, with educating the populace and rational planning for the future. The behavior still resembles the characters in "Syriana."

[peripato]

It might start out more as the West against the Rest, otherwise how do you explain the behaviour of loyal allies like Great Britain, Japan and Australia in the war on terror? Things will begin to get more interesting when after a few years of plan war/status quo it becomes the US against the Rest as fossil fuels deplete to a point where the US can no longer maintain both theirs and their loyal allies lifestyles, and the former decides its time to cut them loose? What will happen then? Will the politics of envy turn former friends into implacable foes? Nuclear exchange anyone?

[MonteQuest]

Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict

[mark]

There's that famous quote where a while house senior official tells the reporter that "...we're an empire now..." The quite obvious lack of planning that surfaced in Iraq once ‘major combat' was declared over. The disaster in New Orleans. The clear lack of competence that this as well as previous administrations display on a regular basis. Now they're suddenly competent on peak oil?

I don't think so. The actual level of mismanagement and stupidity constantly on display at the Federal and state level is, I think, but the tip of the iceberg. If we were to really know how totally corrupt and incompetent our elected officials are I think we'd storm the gates of government to hang them all.

I very well could be wrong, however, I think we're dealing here with catastrophic levels madness and arrogance and stupidity. One of my favorite columnists on Kitco is Richard Daughty, the angriest man in economics. Weekly he heaps disdain and contempt on elected officials. I think it is richly deserved and more should join him.

Is it possible that they are actually competent at something? I suppose so, but I think it highly unlikely. I believe they're just a dumb as a box of rocks.

[Jack]

I voted for: TPTB are engaging in, and preparing for resource wars.

That said, I think TPTB are the same as the rest of us - they think short term. A Congressman is more concerned about getting elected in Nov. 2006 than about Peak Oil hitting in 200(?).

And, too, what are they to do? Show up on television and tell everyone the truth - recognizing that, as MonteQuest points out, many elements of the "truth" aren't knowable? Are Mr. and Mrs. America - or people in other developed countries - ready for austere lifestyles? Are they ready for the dissolution of the various programs such as Social Security and Medicare? Are they prepared for the wrenching economic dislocation implied by such a transition? I think the public is not ready for the message. They would simply vote for a sly politician who told them what they wanted to hear.

By the way - notice that the Fed ceased to report M3 and gold is up? An interesting approach to dissolving the social safety net is to inflate our way out of it. If that $1,000 per month payment to grandma is reduced to a value of $100 per month, while at the same time people are forced into higher tax brackets, the problem is mitigated.

But yes, there will be resource wars. I dare say that the next decade will be bloody.

[backstop]

In the era of the RPG & IED I'd question the viability of running serious scale oilfields against local opposition - that is, while paying less than market price for the oil.

The Fallujah debacle demonstrated the futility of unrestrained brutality towards the population, with medical aid denied and the wounded casually murdered. And the result ? Iraqi oil exports are still nowhere near what they were under Sadam, the Neo Cons have lost their allies at home and abroad, and if the US wants to uphold the shotgun deal over oil sales they'll pay God-knows-what per barrel in terms of funding long-term active military garrisons.

So how is all that getting the US cheaper oil ? In reality it's cut global supply and so raised prices.

There are many statesmen around the planet (including in the US) who can see plainly the utter futility of fighting over the dregs - once Cheyney et al are gone then I guess we'll see a very different set of parameters being laid out. In this light the benighted Bush may have done the world a great service - by demontrationg in timely manner the bloody incompetence of fascist strategy for resolving resource scarcity.

regards,

Backstop

[savethehumans]

Figuring out what the government is doing is, indeed, a no-brainer, Monte. And false hopes that things will change once the Bush/Neocon rule is over (if it ever is) is an exercise in futility. This empire will be (is?) committed to "the course."

What can we do about it? Little to nothing. Heck, I have to start earning a paycheck again this year, and I'm wondering why I'm bothering. To keep posting and paying for computer DSL, I guess. Food and shelter, for the moment. Really, I just take the Sarah Connor ("Terminator" movies) approach: every day is a gift. Make the most of every individual day. What's coming is so overwhelming, "localizing" the time you have is really the only option. That, and prayer, if you believe (and I do).

Basis for communities, for when we get to the other side of this? Good idea. Except "this" is so overwhelming, can anything but just holding on BE a basis? If a small-large enough group holds on, then perhaps something can be built from the ashes. Building anything BEFOREHAND...well, I guess trying for the sake of saying we tried. But hoping anything's gonna last outside of faith and small-group support--I think that's stretching it.

Pessimist? Cynic? Realist? Apocalyptic? Heck, why put me in a pigeonhole? I don't know! Just that everything's about to be turned inside out--and I pray I'm not alone when it does.

But TPTB? Resource Wars, all the way.

[venky]

Most people who seriously study peak oil come away with the conclusion that it will probably cause a serious discontinuity and that it is probably imminent. But most people; atleast in the general public do not understand the fundamental issues as we on this site do. Even the ones who are generally more aware; perhaps have just heard it mentioned once or twice; generally both sides of the debate i.e. Lynch vs Campbell and would have come of thinking, this might be a cause for concern, but 'they' will think of something and it is not going to happen immediately.

I dont really the think the elite are that different from the public and the ones in the elite who really do understand the issues of oil depletion are in a very small minority. For most oil depletion is just one among so many other issues that prop up all around, and most are concerned about their talking points for the next round of elections and certainly not what might or might not happen 10 years down the line. That being said, recent progress atleast in the US congress is certainly a cause for optimism.

The wild card in all of this is ofcourse is what is going on in the minds of those who run the US, George Bush, Dick Cheney and even Rice. Given their backgrounds and close relations to big oil, I dont see how they can not be aware of this issue. And certainly the actions in the past few years give cause for worry. I voted 'dont know what to do', but I wonder. Resource wars are certainly a depressing thought.

[Carlhole]

...and 911 kicked off the whole Iraqi/Central Asia invasion

I sort of suspect that some population reduction measures are being talked about in priviliged circles.

If you think about the Earth's human population in purely dispassionate terms, then in the case of acute energy shortages, the population will clearly need to be pruned back in order to allow the civilization to continue.

It's that simple.

I think somewhere out there, people are hard at work creating laboratory viruses...

[Falconoffury]

As my old high school football coach used to say, "Put your head between your knees and kiss your ass goodbye". He also said, "walk it off" many many times.

So, if you find yourself starving due to the collapse of civilization, just walk it off.

[TT]

I went with TPTB have some other plan.

I think that TPTB are really only interested in themselves and their buddies. A resource war could potentially ruin the nice sustainable ranch that they've provided for themselves. Nothing like a handful of nukes falling around your property to bring down the value of your farm.

I've been thinking hard on the new Industrial Relations legislation and Anti Terror legislation that was introduced in Australia last month. This legislation effectively takes away all worker's rights and also takes their right to protest or strike. It's draconian. I figure the only reason that TPTB could want this legislation is so they can force people to work for nothing and the law backs them up. This way the rich landholders have an endless supply of powerless slaves.

I've also been watching the "Bird Flu" news. For 24 years I've run a shelter for sick and injured native Australian birds. OK, that doesn't make me a medical expert - but I've dealt with a heck of a lot of avian diseases. I've also attended hundreds (literally) of education classes at various places to be better able to care for birds. One thing that has always been drummed into us is "avian diseases are practically impossible to pass on to humans". There is a tiny, teechy, slim, weeny possibility of catching a disease from birds and in this instance the disease is always terrible for the human. But the human can NOT pass on the disease to another human.

And what are we seeing? Some very few people that have daily and close contact with birds are catching bird flu. These people become very, very sick and many die. None have passed the disease on to another human. So, from my point of view, everything is as it always has been. There is no obvious danger to people.

I also believe that in the very unlikely case of the bird flu virus mutating to a human borne disease, it is very unlikely to remain the same disease. In fact it could be less than the common cold or deadlier than the plague. No one could possibly know ahead of time.

My point in this long dialogue is this:-

Why are we getting Bird Flu and the dangers rammed down our throats day in and day out? Why are laboratories experimenting with the 1918 flu virus?

I can't help but wonder..........

If China, India, Russia and (insert country) were suddenly hit with a devastatingly deadly epidemic of bird flu and 90% of their population were lost - how would that affect peak oil?

Now if (certain) people in Western countries were immunised against bird flu in its new, deadly, humanly transmitted form - it would be really easy to depopulate high risk and overcrowded slums. No latent radiation and no loss of infastructure.

OK - now I'm gunna take off my tinfoil hat - but I'm still not going to underestimate the self interest of our government ministers.

[seldom_seen]

The US has a very large oil powered military, but not very much oil.

Country with oil, meet the US Military.

I figure the TPTB will try to feed the machine until it grinds to a halt, because without the machine TPTB become TPTB with a lot less power (TPTBWALLP?). At that point fulfilling the Road Warrior Prophecy: "Without fuel they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped."

[dissimulo]

I think it is actually a combination of #1 and #3. People in government are just like everyone else. Congress runs the same gamut of wacky ideas held by the rest of the population. I'm sure this is little different the world over. So, those with the most knowledge are preparing to fight for the scraps, while those with less knowledge figure we have many more years of oil to burn.

Remember, it is considered wisdom to scoff at anyone who claims that our way of life could come to an end. Predicting the end of the world is an annual crackpot event. People who built bomb shelters during the cold war were fools - all that worry and nothing happened! Ah - the arrogance to think that you were born during the time that such major events would occur. Etc, etc, etc...

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TT', 'W')hy are we getting Bird Flu and the dangers rammed down our throats day in and day out? Why are laboratories experimenting with the 1918 flu virus?

[gg3]

Interesting about this discussion leading to the question of bioweapons. I was having similar thoughts over the past few days.

The scenario goes roughly like this:

Resource depletion and ecological crises lead to the beginning of a collapse scenario, starting with Western economies going into long deep recession. Various forms of authoritarianism and totalitarianism become popular; checks and balances are removed one by one. Resource wars break out, first on a limited scale, and gradually scaling up.

Then at some point, someone, possibly even a small nation that has "nothing left to lose" or even a terrorist group, attempts to gain an advantage by releasing a genetically modified bioweapon. The result is a die-off of about half the world's population. This takes the pressure off the resource wars, and new international alliances and spheres of power emerge. Totalitarianism gradually scales back to authoritarianism and remains at that stage indefinitely.

We have already seen the beginnings of the economic impacts of ecological and resource crises, and the beginnings of the removal of checks and balances in the US government (e.g. Snoopgate, expanded Executive powers and claims for further expansion of powers). And arguably, Iraq is a resource war. So here we have the beginnings, the faint ripples, of what may be ahead.

The only way out of this is a) reduce population by half through various forms of birth control, b) massively build new energy sources e.g. nuclear, wind, coal, etc., and c) significantly restructure Western economies on a non-growth-oriented basis. These steps are not being taken. Therefore, in the absence of the cure, the disease continues to grow, and I personally see no way out of this any time soon.

My point about bioweapons here is, genetic technologies are becoming so widely availble as to put bioweapon engineering within reach of any country or group that has the financial resources of a typical biotech startup company. The question is not "if" but "when."

[killJOY]

We live in a culture of managers.

Everything is managed, or is attempted to being managed.

News/entertainment is management of feelings/perceptions. I don't believe a fucking word of it. Even NPR is more interested in how to spell Chanukah correctly (a real "story" recently) than in really informing people. GAY MARRIAGE! GAY MARRIAGE! BUY BUY BUY!

We have a government of managers. They're thinking they can manage peak oil. Problem is, they can't even accept the reality of evolution, let alone the reality of their hubris.

Our technologies have outstripped our stupid little Pleistocene brains. People drive FOSSIL-FUEL-powered monstrosities to church to indulge their First Century views of the world!

Has everyone forgotten Oedipus? Thebes was under a "pollution." The mighty Oedipus said, "I can manage it!" Teiresias said, "YOU, Oedipus, are the city's pollution." Oedipus said, "Who, me? Mighty Oedipus? I even outran the gods' stupid curse! How dare you suggest otherwise!"

What an arrogant motherfucker! He should go gouge his own eyes out.

Has no one gotten Shake-speare's message? Iago was an insider. Othello trusted him so much that Iago's job was the "conveyance" of Othello's wife Desdemona to Cyprus. Iago instead hatched an evil plan to DESTROY Othello's wife. Iago even enlisted his own wife's unconscious help. Iago was everybody's counselor and protector. He was a fucking liar. He allowed four airliners to be hijacked and crashed into Desdemona's reputation. No one believed it. Not until Emilia, Iago's wife, gave her life exposing him.

We're fucked.

[Carlhole]

Paul Erhlich of 'The Population Bomb' fame praises Prince Philip of Great Britain for having "taken courageous stands in the population issue and its connection to environmental problems." [And now ENERGY problems, too] But this is the same Prince Philip who, when asked what he would like to be reincarnated as, replied: a "killer virus to lower human population levels." Certainly a princely thing to say.

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TT', 'I') went with TPTB have some other plan.

I think that TPTB are really only interested in themselves and their buddies. A resource war could potentially ruin the nice sustainable ranch that they've provided for themselves. Nothing like a handful of nukes falling around your property to bring down the value of your farm.

I've been thinking hard on the new Industrial Relations legislation and Anti Terror legislation that was introduced in Australia last month. This legislation effectively takes away all worker's rights and also takes their right to protest or strike. It's draconian. I figure the only reason that TPTB could want this legislation is so they can force people to work for nothing and the law backs them up. This way the rich landholders have an endless supply of powerless slaves.

....

[linlithgowoil]

the problem with people saying that the US and others will adopt 'last man standing' approach is that all countries are now mutually dependant on each other for their economic well being.

if the US somehow got access to all of the worlds oil in totality, this would mean that everyone else would have none and the other countries economies would plummet, taking the US with them.

the US cant go down the route of isolation because is interests are to remain in cooperation with global economies. last man standing doesnt make sense. in todays world, if one major economy collapses, so do the rest.