[Lokutus]

World Oil Production capacity to increase up to 25% by 2015; No peak seen for decades, US Congressional Committee told
By Finfacts Team
Dec 7, 2005, 23:04

A field-by-field analysis of global oil production and development shows the world is not running out of oil in the near- or medium-term, and a large increase in the availability of unconventional oils will expand global liquid hydrocarbons capacity by as much as one-fourth in the next ten years, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), an IHS company, testified to a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee this morning.

“We see no evidence to suggest a peak before 2020, nor do we see a transparent and technically sound analysis from another source that justifies belief in an imminent peak,” CERA Senior Consultant and Director of Global Oil and Gas Resources Robert Esser testified before a House Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee hearing on Understanding the Peak Oil Theory. “It will be a number of decades into this century before we get to an inflexion point that will herald the arrival of an ‘undulating plateau’ of global hydrocarbon production capacity,” Esser said.


http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusiness ... 4190.shtml

Well, there you have it.

You can all go home now and just chill out.

[seldom_seen]

woohoo!

[Lokutus]

Can someone rebutt this with something more than a cartoon graphic?

[Colorado-Valley]

Do a little research on who Cambridge actually is. It's a think tank with major ties to big oil and to the Carlyle Group, a very interesting privately held conglomerate of companies with close ties to the Bush Family.

This is not exactly an independent think tank.

[Lokutus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'D')o a little research on who Cambridge actually is. It's a think tank with major ties to big oil and to the Carlyle Group, a very interesting privately held conglomerate of companies with close ties to the Bush Family.

This is not exactly an independent think tank.

[skateari]

This is actually quite depressing. The first time our congress decides to really look into peak oil, as a real issue, and this is the kind of BS that comes out of it. Complete denile of the issue. Did this "Independent Think Tank" share any information as to where they discovered all this oil?

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'W')orld Oil Production capacity to increase up to 25% by 2015; No peak seen for decades, US Congressional Committee told [/b]
By Finfacts Team
Dec 7, 2005, 23:04

A field-by-field analysis of global oil production and development shows the world is not running out of oil in the near- or medium-term, and a large increase in the availability of unconventional oils will expand global liquid hydrocarbons capacity by as much as one-fourth in the next ten years, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), an IHS company, testified to a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee this morning.

[skateari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'W')orld Oil Production capacity to increase up to 25% by 2015; No peak seen for decades, US Congressional Committee told [/b]
By Finfacts Team
Dec 7, 2005, 23:04

A field-by-field analysis of global oil production and development shows the world is not running out of oil in the near- or medium-term, and a large increase in the availability of unconventional oils will expand global liquid hydrocarbons capacity by as much as one-fourth in the next ten years, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), an IHS company, testified to a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee this morning.

[Lokutus]

More from the same article:

CERA projects that world oil production capacity – including crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), oil sands, gas-to-liquids (GTL), and other sources – has the potential to rise from 87 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2005 to as much as 108 mbd by 2015, with further growth in capacity continuing after that point.

“A detailed new audit of our own analysis and the enormous scale of reserve upgrades in existing fields, confirmed by the most extensive and complete databases on field production – the proprietary databases of IHS, of which CERA is now part – contradicts those who believe that peak oil is imminent,” Esser testified.

Between 2005 and 2010, production capacity expansion will be split between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, according to the CERA analysis; over the coming ten years, OPEC countries will produce a net gain of 12.2 mbd, almost 60% of the total expected capacity increase, with non-OPEC capacity rising 8.2 mbd. Regionally, the United States and North Sea capacity declines, while Canada, West and North Africa, Latin America, the Caspian and Middle East continue to increase. After 2010, increases in capacity will shift more to OPEC countries.


:happydance:

[Chaparral]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'M')ore from the same article:

CERA projects that world oil production capacity – including crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), oil sands, gas-to-liquids (GTL), and other sources – has the potential to rise from 87 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2005 to as much as 108 mbd by 2015, with further growth in capacity continuing after that point.

[Daryl]

Fire up the Hummer, honey. We're driving to Disneyworld!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[crapattack]

Wahoo. I'm so relieved, whew! Between this and the December Issue of Wired, where they stated at high oil prices are actually good for us and we should be driving more, not less, I feel so much better. I was worried fornothing.
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.12/gas.html

[ThunderChunky]

Problem solved. Close these forums immediately, they no longer serve a purpose. /sarcasm

So did they actually present the data they used to come to these conlcusions, if would be nice if people on this board could scrutinize it.

[Barbara]

Amazing!
So the war against Iraq/Iran/Syria/ is truly for WMD!
And we thought they were lying to us...

[Aaron]

doomed

[PhilBiker]

Great job guys with the large "100%" numbers. Made me chuckle. No comment on the article....

...Now back to your regularly scheduled doom and gloom filled debunking.

[ashurbanipal]

IIRC, the CERA analysis relied on 4 things that I would consider somewhat fishy:

1) They didn't backdate discovery, so that the discovery curve they use doesn't look as catastrophic as a backdated curve. They then extrapolate discovery from that, expecting it to rise somewhat. It's similar in effect to what the USGS did in calculating future reserves.

2) They accept at face value the increase in OPEC reserves that took place during the 80's.

3) They call for rather a large dollar investment to improve infrastructure and increase exploration.

4) And, as already pointed out, they're only talking about capacity--not actual production. Yergin said it himself:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01672.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here will be a large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply in the next few years. Between 2004 and 2010, capacity to produce oil (not actual production) could grow by 16 million barrels a day -- from 85 million barrels per day to 101 million barrels a day -- a 20 percent increase.

[FireJack]

Whenever I see someting like this I am sure we are going to drive right into the point of no return and off the cliff. Mass starvation, violence, etc.

Mabey I really should just find a cave somewhere, make it as comfortable as possible, pack it full of supplies and wait out the initial die-off.

[gego]

The political powers just want to wait until a big crisis point is reached before they scream, "Peak Oil." That way they can give Halliburton big $$$ emergency unbid contracts.

Whenever it comes to government and money, the scam is always in play.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'D')o a little research on who Cambridge actually is. It's a think tank with major ties to big oil and to the Carlyle Group, a very interesting privately held conglomerate of companies with close ties to the Bush Family.

This is not exactly an independent think tank.