[nero]

This is quite old news. There is a big question mark beside how they account for declines in production from existing fields but I don't question that there is alot of oil coming on stream.

Of course this is a risk free forecast. If they are wrong it will likely be mixed up with economic and political factors that will take all the blame.

[Revi]

Do all our congress critters think everything's hunky dory now? Are they going to believe or even listen to Roscoe Bartlett now? They just heard from CERA that everything's fine. Who will act now? If they buy this crapola we're finished. I have heard that congress is getting ready to nix Cape Wind. Just in time for rolling blackouts this winter in New England. Great move! Why don't we do something even if we assume the peak is 2020? Use less electricity, gas and oil. Any way you look at it it makes sense. We'd be more secure, less vulnerable. Maybe it's because big oil rules our country. It's them or nothing! CERA is one of their inventions.

[rockdoc123]

I think a lot of folks here take this sort of thing way to personally....just because you have bought into Campbells last prediction of a global peak doesn't necessarily mean everyone in the world does...including a lot of people who look at supplies and markets for a living.

The key difference in what CERA is doing is they include non-conventional oil....ie. Alberta oil sands and heavy oil as well as LNG.
Using the IHS Energy database (the recent one not the out of date one that Campbell has) it is pretty hard to argue a peak prior to 2012 regardless of what you think is remaining to be discovered anywhere. This is simply because there are a number of fields in west Africa, the Caspian, GOM which have been discovered, appraised and are now waiting to be put on stream....delayed for any number of reasons (eg. Thunderhorse delayed by hurricanes). This is not pie in the sky oil, the only way you can exclude it from the mix is if it is uneconomic or technologically impossible to produce, which is not the case.

If you take the non-conventional oil out of the equation I suspect CERA numbers would come down to the 2012-2015 range that IHS and a number of other people have arrived at.

[FoxV]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'â')€œWe see no evidence to suggest a peak before 2020..."

[bobbyald]

As I understand it the CERA report takes into account an additional 16mbd due to come online by 2010 but they don't take into account an equal amount of lost production due to wells/countries having already peaked.

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skateari', '
')
I think that the theory behind the article is 100% Bullshit. Despite the price of oil, where are they going to find enough feilds to produce 20 m/b per day??

[bobcousins]

Isn't CERA being quite hypocritical in complaining about lack of transparency when their own database is proprietary, and their research is not open?

If I was being cynical (=realistic), I would say this is like all the "independent" organisations the oil companies fund to criticise global warming. I.e a front for industry propaganda. CERA don't have to present a credible message, just provide an alternative for people to latch onto, and create the illusion of a lack of consensus.

CERA is presenting the best case scenario, the truth will lie somewhere between them and ASPO et al. I am expecting a bumpy plateau from now to about 2010, when we shall see if these unconventional sources are ramping up, or whether serious decline is about to set in. It will probably be 5-10 years after peak before it is clear to everyone, and even then some people will blame lower production on lower demand due to this global recession we seem to be having

[DoctorDoom]

Well, even if the think tank is biased and/or has ties to "big oil", I'm not sure what they or anyone has to gain by making incorrect predictions of future oil supply. Heck, BP and Chevron are already admitting we need to start thinking about a plan B.

If the peak isn't until 2015, then that's great, we have a decade to prepare without operating under crisis conditions. But it doesn't change the basic facts:

1. Fossil fuels are a finite resource and we will someday exhaust them.
2. Use of fossil fuels is putting CO2 into the atmosphere which may be warming our planet, and certainly isn't helping it.

Nor is the response, which is that we must:

1. Reduce our energy consumption through increased efficiency, and
2. Find other ways besides combustion to satisfy our energy needs.

Unfortunately given human nature a 2015 peak will more than likely cause us to squander an additional decade's worth of oil production and only then take the above actions. That's an additional decade of CO2 from oil combustion, too. So, even if true it's not exactly unconditionally "good news". My take: we're already on a decade-long plateau and it will be difficult to expand production much beyond the 90-100 mbd level. The only way we get to the upper end of that range or beyond is by massive production of tar sands in Canada and Venezuela and/or by miscounting coal-to-liquid production. But then, I'm not a high-priced energy consultant.

[thorn]

There were others at the hearing, not just CERA. Aleklett, Hirsch, Bartlett & Udall all spoke at the hearing. Too bad Matt Simmons was not able to make it.

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/events/585

Aleklett said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Since 2001, when ASPO was founded, we have tried to tell the world that there will soon be a problem supplying the world with crude oil while demand continues to rise. The estimated peak-production year at the first depletion workshop in Uppsala in 2002 was 2010. Two years later at our Berlin meeting it had moved to 2008, and now it looks like we are back to 2010, because production from deepwater oil fields will yield more than we expected. The exact year for peak oil depends very much on future demand and we will not know when we have peaked until we have crossed the threshold. It will certainly happen before 2020.

[Hegel]

As always, CERAs publications are for the birds.

[bob_loblaw]

they sure are putting big stock in Canada...

my Canadian heart cries a little for the wasteland of pollution that Alberta will become..

[The_Virginian]

CONgressCritters now have a choice between CERA and ASPO/Simmons etc.

I don't see why logical thinkers can't look at all views, I just wish I could have more faith in the DC Rat-pack.

[Novus]

I think congress actually knows the truth about peak oil but are keeping the cat in the bag for personal gain. If there is a die-off comming they don't want to be a part of it. They want to be on the living side.

[Antimatter]

You can read the full testimony here. Includes some country forecasts etc.

[Leanan]

CNN's In the Money had been fairly reasonable about peak oil while prices were setting new records every other week. Now that prices have gone back down, they've become cornucopians. They had a report today that promised oil shale would save us. And new technology that would get more oil out of old wells. And Silicon Valley would help us find new wells. And hey, they predicted the end of oil back in the '20s and after WWII and in the '70s, and it didn't happen then, so it won't happen now.

[Golgo13]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'd')oomed