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THE US Trade Gap Thread (merged)

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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby emersonbiggins » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 16:48:43

Hey, we can't run a country of massage parlors and fried-food shacks without cheap electronics from China... :o

(thanks, kunstler)
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

George Carlin
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby Sgs-Cruz » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 16:59:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'H')ey, we can't run a country of massage parlors and fried-food shacks without cheap electronics from China... :o

(thanks, kunstler)

His descriptions of the basis of the US economy are hilarious, especially because they keep changing every week.

"A country of fried chicken and insurance sales..."
"A country based on Disney theme parks and fried chicken..."

etc.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby lakeweb » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 17:01:39

Dollar Hegemony doesn't have a lot of life left in it.

It is like waiting for someone to yell, 'FIRE', in a crowded theater...

Best, Dan.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby Aqua » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 18:31:00

I think its only a matter of time before you guys end up going the same way as Argentina. Can’t mind any names but I mind reading last year someone going before congress and declaring if the US government did not raise its borrowing cap then the US government will cease to exist by the late fall of last year.
Raised my doomerosity levels through the roof.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby lakeweb » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 18:53:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aqua', 'I') think its only a matter of time before you guys end up going the same way as Argentina. Can’t mind any names but I mind reading last year someone going before congress and declaring if the US government did not raise its borrowing cap then the US government will cease to exist by the late fall of last year.
Raised my doomerosity levels through the roof.


If it were so simple. The problem is that most of the rest of the world holds dollars as reserves. The U.S. won't go down in isolation.

Like I said, it is like waiting for someone to yell, 'FIRE!', in a crowded theater.

Best, Dan.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby DantesPeak » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 19:55:18

Probably POers and other similar sites are probably the only places where there is even an awareness of how the US dollar based world trade system really functions. It functions by having everyone in the world use dollars and essentially send all their savings to the US. This is not an exaggeration. Just check out the US Treasury report released this morning: http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/js3050.htm

Foreigners sent more than $100 billion to the US in October. That's more than a $1 trillion per year. That is also all the free savings the world has. If some country, such as Iran, sold its products only in Euros or gold, less dollars would be demanded. If that practice spread, eventually the dollar would no longer be practically the only reserve currency.

The end of the US dollar regime would wreck the US economy. No nukes, bombs, threats, or embargoes would be needed. The recently discussed possible bombing of Iran would be sure to turn the world away from the US dollar, and perhaps, letting Iran proceed would have the same effect - but it may take much longer that way.

Either way, it looks like the peak of the present US dollar trade system may occur may roughly at the same time as oil reaches peak worldwide production. The peak of US production happened at the same time income per person peaked (yes it true, inflation adjusted income per working person peaked more than 30 years ago). The peak of worldwide oil production might mean that worldwide income per person has peaked, and there will be fighting and conflict from now on as living standards drop. We may be very well be in the final days of the smooth functioning of the dollar system.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby Aqua » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 20:15:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aqua', 'I')f it were so simple. The problem is that most of the rest of the world holds dollars as reserves. The U.S. won't go down in isolation.

Like I said, it is like waiting for someone to yell, 'FIRE!', in a crowded theater.

Best, Dan.



I’m well aware of how much the US owes the rest of the world, something like five times GDP. When America goes down it will drive the rest of the world down with it as most nations have adopted the same economic growth model and economies are so intertwined thanks to globalisation. Interesting times indeed and while we may speculate as to how it will pan out fact is nobody really knows for sure.
Bankrupt America + neocon agenda = scary shit for the rest of us world citizens or is that consumers?
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby lakeweb » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:17:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'P')robably POers and other similar sites are probably the only places where there is even an awareness of how the US dollar based world trade system really functions. It functions by having everyone in the world use dollars and essentially send all their savings to the US. This is not an exaggeration. Just check out the US Treasury report released this morning: http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/js3050.htm


Domestic Securities. Nice name.

This all started after WWII and the establishment of the Bretton Woods system.
Bretton Woods system

Wikipedia did an ok job of introduction but here is the follow through. Because the IMF loaned in dollars, repayment was required in dollars. This hooked emerging countries on the dollar and entrenched the dollar as a "reserve currency". As we moved to net importer we needed dollars to fund those excess imports. What is called 'Domestic Securities' is actually U.S. Debt. But it magically becomes our credit because the rest of the world must trade in dollars. The "reserve currency" of foreign central banks is actually our promise to pay in dollars, Domestic Securities, what our import expenditures turn into.

The system has worked to this day mostly because oil is required to trade in dollars. The Saudis embargoed oil because Nixon closed the gold window. It was not because of Israel as is often written. But the Saudis knew they could not make it from where they where without our dollars. They were already hooked.

Best, Dan.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby RdSnt » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 21:27:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'P')robably POers and other similar sites are probably the only places where there is even an awareness of how the US dollar based world trade system really functions. It functions by having everyone in the world use dollars and essentially send all their savings to the US. This is not an exaggeration. Just check out the US Treasury report released this morning: http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/js3050.htm

Foreigners sent more than $100 billion to the US in October. That's more than a $1 trillion per year. That is also all the free savings the world has. If some country, such as Iran, sold its products only in Euros or gold, less dollars would be demanded. If that practice spread, eventually the dollar would no longer be practically the only reserve currency.

The end of the US dollar regime would wreck the US economy. No nukes, bombs, threats, or embargoes would be needed. The recently discussed possible bombing of Iran would be sure to turn the world away from the US dollar, and perhaps, letting Iran proceed would have the same effect - but it may take much longer that way.

Either way, it looks like the peak of the present US dollar trade system may occur may roughly at the same time as oil reaches peak worldwide production. The peak of US production happened at the same time income per person peaked (yes it true, inflation adjusted income per working person peaked more than 30 years ago). The peak of worldwide oil production might mean that worldwide income per person has peaked, and there will be fighting and conflict from now on as living standards drop. We may be very well be in the final days of the smooth functioning of the dollar system.


It's ironic that we are approaching Peak Money at the same time as Peak Oil. By next year the US debt requirements will consume all available money used by the world to finance debt. That includes corporate debt.

Like the continuous increase in demand for energy irrespective of the supply, the US debt will do the same. Continue to increase even after the money supply runs out. I'm talking about foreign money here not helicopter money.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby oilluber » Thu 15 Dec 2005, 23:27:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aqua', 'I') think its only a matter of time before you guys end up going the same way as Argentina. Can’t mind any names but I mind reading last year someone going before congress and declaring if the US government did not raise its borrowing cap then the US government will cease to exist by the late fall of last year.
Raised my doomerosity levels through the roof.


The rural US areas look like Argentina already.
Ecept for Satellite dishes.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby Aqua » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 07:43:35

I think that the powers that be know their ship is going down someday, hence war on terror with dissolution of civil rights under the patriot act and military conquests of oil rich nations.
Oilluber the rural parts of Ireland look like one giant Georgian housing estate now such is the extent of property speculation. When this pops we won’t be far behind you.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby aldente » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 07:49:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')It's ironic that we are approaching Peak Money at the same time as Peak Oil. By next year the US debt requirements will consume all available money used by the world to finance debt. That includes corporate debt.


This is a remarkable statement. Could you please elaborate a bit more where this information stems from and what the direct implications will be?
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby cube » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 11:35:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aqua', 'I') think its only a matter of time before you guys end up going the same way as Argentina....
ouch, that's harsh! I can imagine there will come a day when all the currency speculators band together like a Mongol horde and short the dollar. When that happens the dollar will drop like a rock and Joe Sixpack who knows nothing about FOREX will balme these "speculators", "daytraders", "profiteers" or whatever colorful names people will give.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby RdSnt » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 14:40:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')It's ironic that we are approaching Peak Money at the same time as Peak Oil. By next year the US debt requirements will consume all available money used by the world to finance debt. That includes corporate debt.


This is a remarkable statement. Could you please elaborate a bit more where this information stems from and what the direct implications will be?


It's pretty straightforward really, if you exclude the wholesale printing of money, then there is a finite amount of money moving back and forth in the world and buys debt. So, the US requires that "someone" buys 2+ billion dollars of debt, every day, to support the dollar and thus the economy. Each day the US debt grows on an exponential curve and it is so big now that there is nothing that can be done to stop this type of growth. Really now, the US economy is so broke that the only thing propping it up is fear. Really.
When the US collapses the rest of the world follows and what is happening now behind the scenes is quiet, desperate measures to insulate, primarily first world countries, from the damage.
Printing money may mask the problem but it doesn't actually do anything except foster inflation and degrade the value of the currency. You're in a nasty feedback loop, the Fed is printing money, which creates inflation and raises interest rates to slow inflation down. Make any sense? It shouldn't.
You pay a lot more money for things now, but it's not because items are more expensive, it's because the money is worth less.
There is lots of talk about the Fed. printing money to inflate the debt away and that might work if the currency worked in isolation. If Canada was in a similar situation we could print lots of money and inflate our debts to nothing. It would work because other countries don't rely on the Canadian dollar. US currency however has become the world's monetary standard, so it doesn't work in isolation. As the dollar degrades it immediate changes the value of every other currency in the world, to their detriment. Guess how long the world economies are going to tolerate that? A hint; you are just about out of time.

The bottom line is that the US, and every citizen in it, is so far in debt there is no feasible way to recover.

I primarily rely on two site for analysis,
http://www.financialsense.com
The is a great deal of good current data here and not too much fanatism.

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/hodges.htm
This is a huge site and this guy is a hide-bound, cold-hearted, libertarian, freak, but I've yet to spot a lie anywhere in the data. What he lays out here is simply the numbers and they should chill every American to the bone. Simply put, you're all fucked, and it's been self-inflicted.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby Rafa » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 21:41:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'B')ecause the IMF loaned in dollars, repayment was required in dollars.


Talking of the IMF... Brazil declared that it will pay all its remaining IMF debth by this year, Argentina quickly followed and said the same, Venezuela helping.
Now, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela are members of Mercosur, an economic and now political block (all member countries stressed the need to change the economic to political focus); and finishing the debt to IMF means those countries won't need anymore to get dollars to pay to the IMF;
Venezuela already converted all its dollars resserves into other currencies (mainly euros);
Mercosur needs in energy (oil and NG), agricultural goods, manufactured goods and services are quickly being covered by non monetary exchanges (eg: Venezuela gives oil to Argentina, Argentina gives beef and crop to Venezuela), that is, no need of dollars here too.
There is also a project, lead by Venezuela, to create an "investment bank of the south" so countries needing loans could get them from there instead of from the IMF.

If you connect the dots... it seems that there is a conscious plan in south America to cut the links with the USA, so they won't be taken in the fall when the US economy falls.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby lakeweb » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 22:37:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rafa', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'B')ecause the IMF loaned in dollars, repayment was required in dollars.


Venezuela already converted all its dollars resserves into other currencies (mainly euros);


As I recall their central bank moved 20% of the dollar to euros. They did this by government direction which means the bank doesn't operate independently. They get away with this because they are a net exporter but more than one eyebrow went up.

The bigger deals are Iran. But the earth-shattering rumor for the week was that Russia is considering trading energy in euros and their central bank is a net buyer of gold!

Every thing about the COMEX is becoming nutty and no one knows. GATA is gaining credibility in circles outside of the U.S. but the major medias here still won't touch it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rafa', 'I')f you connect the dots... it seems that there is a conscious plan in south America to cut the links with the USA, so they won't be taken in the fall when the US economy falls.


The big players can see the writing on the wall. But we are talking trillions of dollar reserves. What Venezuela did is a drop in the bucket, more like a statement. Can the shakier economies of central and south America keep up? Brazil looks to be an interesting turn around but it is only just happening. They are importing like crazy and only agriculture is offsetting this. (Yea, one of our big exports is agriculture, something to think about...)

We will see if the rest of the world can cut the U.S. from the system quietly over the long term. But if someone yells, 'FIRE!'....

Best, Dan.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby diceman99 » Sat 17 Dec 2005, 09:40:49

I learned some interesting information about currency, fiat money and how money works on goodwill, faith and greed.

Look up the story of John Law and the first trial of a fiat currency in France.
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Re: US Trade Deficit Widens

Postby Falconoffury » Sat 17 Dec 2005, 11:24:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he bottom line is that the US, and every citizen in it, is so far in debt there is no feasible way to recover.


I don't understand why I should be bundled in with the country as a whole. I know that I will be largely affected by the currency devaluation, but I don't have any debts right now. It will become tougher to buy the things I need, but I'm not responsible for the debt of the country.
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