[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FrankRichards', 'W')hat kind of oil? I think it's low anyway, but if he's talking Siberian heavy sour delivered by (high cost) railroad rather than pipeline, $40 would still imply WTI at $50 or so.

[FoxV]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he 2006 Russian draft budget plan is based on the government’s forecast of oil at $40 per barrel next year,

[MicroHydro]

Once again, talk is cheap. It doesn't mean a thing unless he is now selling oil future contracts for 2006 delivery at that price.

[nth]

This is for budgeting only. Has nothing to do with what actual oil prices are.

US oil firms use 25 or even less!

[LadyRuby]

Oil prices and Russia's return to superpower status

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ssuming a sustained oil price regime of $50 a barrel over the next decade, President Vladimir Putin’s aim of doubling the country’s GDP by 2012, considered by most Russia watchers and economists in 2002 (when the target was announced) as delusional, would not be possible – but will actually occur a year later. During the next decade, Russia’s average monthly income would rise from the current $300 to $1,386, bolstering strong support for the current consumption boom; the country’s nominal dollar-based GDP would be $2.8 trillion (this year’s figure is expected at $743 billion), surpassing Spain’s; and Russia’s per capita GDP would be $20,073, chasing Portugal’s $25,658.

Trade and budget numbers look just as attractive at $50 a barrel. Revenue from crude oil and gas exports (price-wise closely tied to crude prices, but not in terms of demand) would total to almost $200 billion in 2015 for oil and gas exports of $343 billion. For this year, Russia is forecast to export about $123 billion worth of oil and gas for total exports of $230 billion. At the same time, Russia would continue to sustain a robust fiscal surplus and the stabilization fund is projected to hold $557 billion in 2015, an increase from 2005 estimate of $48 billion.

...


At $100 a barrel, export revenue from crude oil and gas would be in the area of $400 billion in 2015 and totaling all exports at $570 billion. The total fiscal budget surplus would be projected at an average 7.4% of GDP 2006 – 2015, and the stabilization fund could conceivably accumulate a breathtaking $1.5 trillion by 2015.

The figures mentioned above are impressive, if not simply amazing. There are many issues related to government policy directives, inflation, taxes on mineral tax resources, and currency appreciation, use of the stabilization fund, and balance of trade that could dent the above numbers to one degree or another. Nonetheless, Russia’s key role in global demand of petroleum products cannot be ignored.

Like it or not, Russia is on the path of reconstituting the power and influence of the former Soviet Union in world affairs. There is an important difference though – Russia will regain this influence and power under 21st century terms: instead of a threatening conventional military and nuclear arsenal, it will take advantage of its vast oil and gas resources to regain its international prominence. Clearly a $100 barrel a dollar oil regime is not immediately in the cards, but it does demand the world to take pause. Even the conventional wisdom of a $50 a barrel should be a wake up call.

[Starvid]

This will make Russia a lot richer but "Superpower" is over the top. Russia will be a Great Power, just as (for example) the UK, Japan and China.

When it comes to superpowers, in the foreseable future there can be only one.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', ' ')there can be only one.

[ALBY]

Russia has the nuclear weapons toi claim superpwer status if they so choose. But why would they ? I can tell you as the citizen of the worlds current superpower that it is not all it's cracked up to be.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', 'R')ussia has the nuclear weapons toi claim superpwer status if they so choose.

[Starvid]

Yeah.

I define "superpower" as being able to intervene militarily at any place on the planet (with rather large forces, being able to insert a platoon of special forces doesn't count).

[Andrew_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'Y')eah.

I define "superpower" as being able to intervene militarily at any place on the planet (with rather large forces, being able to insert a platoon of special forces doesn't count).

[Russian_Cowboy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'D')uring the next decade, Russia’s average monthly income would rise from the current $300

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Andrew_S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'Y')eah.

I define "superpower" as being able to intervene militarily at any place on the planet (with rather large forces, being able to insert a platoon of special forces doesn't count).

[Russian_Cowboy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'B')ut one could also say that the US would have a lot better chances in building their empire if they were as bad ass as the British were (and still are, somewhat).

I mean Abu Ghraib, jesus people, every one who knows anything about CI operations knows torture is absolutely necessary.

And even more, those neocon people really wanted to spread democracy to Iraq, they really, genuinely want to be the nice guys.

Incompetence and good intentions.

That is not how to run an Empire. Ask the Russians.

[Teclo]

If China and Russia were to co-operate together they form a very powerful block that would be a superpower

For some reason people tend to only think back to the time they fell out, yeah 40 years ago. Now they are closer than ever
Off the top of my head I can name their historic border agreement, Russian arms sales to China, joint miliatry excercises, obvious shared interests, similar style of government, one has resources, the other man-power, etc, etc

In a power vacuum caused by a crisis in capitalism or a depression I can imagine they might together seek to influence a region from western europe to south asia

Teclo

[NTBKtrader]

Oil output in Russia may rise 2% on the year in 2006 according to “optimistic forecast,” Sergei Oganesyan, director of the country’s Federal Energy Agency, said Monday.

According to “pessimistic forecast,” oil output in Russia may be almost flat on the year at 475 million tonnes in 2006, Oganesyan said.

Russia’s oil output is expected to increase 2.5% on the year in 2005, he said. The Federal State Statistics Service said in February that oil output in Russia was at 458.7 million tonnes in 2004. Oganesyan said that he expects Russia’s natural gas output to rise between 1% to 1.5% on the year in 2006.

http://www.prime-tass.com/news/show.asp ... &id=386564
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20051031/41943600.html

[Taskforce_Unity]

So how fast do you experienced guys think Russian oil production is going to decline with all this mis-management and possible overproduction happening?

[Free]

According to an interview of Wagit Alekperow, CEO of Russians biggest oil-company Lukoil, with the German newspaper "Handelsblatt", Europeans have to prepare to face rising oil-prices.

Quote:"We want to make sure that Europe is no longer oversupplied with Russian oil".

New pipelines will redirect Russian, Khazakh, and Aserbeidjanian Oil to China. This will mean, according to him, that the price-difference of Russian Oil to Brent-Crude of about 7$ should shrink to ca. 50 Cent, like it was before. Handelsblatt-article (German) What the...

I think this is serious news for Europe, to be honest I naively counted on the Russians as an ally, but obviously the Chinese have been very busy securing their energy future...

[Kingcoal]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'I') think this is serious news for Europe, to be honest I naively counted on the Russians as an ally, but obviously the Chinese have been very busy securing their energy future...

[Free]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Ally? This is about making money son, it's called free market capitalism. Oh yeah, that's only practiced by those evil Americans.