[Longsword]

Also, based on how my Russia stocks on energy are performing, there seems to be plenty of money to be made in Russia today. I think that the view of all of the Russia being completely impoverished is starting to be somewhat outdated. Somebody must be benefitting for the growth of their economy there, thus requiring more oil...

[falser]

It will be really interesting the day oil exporting countries demand payment in gold instead of the US dollar. I'm convinced it will happen eventually.

[M_B_S]

Russia oil product crisis looms says energy minister Viktor Khristenko told a government fuel and energy session that it was impossible to meet forecasted demand, and that the growth potential built in the Soviet times was all but depleted. "A crisis is looming in the industry," he said.
Hi guys RUSSIA ! Expletive deleted.

[PWALPOCO]

Just to clarify something here , he appears to be talking specifically about refining capacity, not oil production capacity.
From what I read refinery capacity problems arent a new concept to some of the readers here , what with the "wrong sort of oil" rearing its head when Saudi apparently made up the production numbers with the heavy stuff.

[Leanan]

Putin proposes creation of ruble-denominated oil, gas exchange
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')resident Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that a ruble-denominated oil and natural gas stock exchange should be set up in Russia.
Speaking before both chambers of parliament, cabinet members, and reporters, Putin said: "The ruble must become a more widespread means of international transactions. To this end, we need to open a stock exchange in Russia to trade in oil, gas, and other goods to be paid for with rubles."
"Our goods are traded on global markets. Why are not they traded in Russia?" Putin said.

[seahorse2]

This is an interesting development. A Russian Oil Bourse is a lot bigger threat than an IOB, for the simple reason that Russia is a bigger economic and military threat than Iran. Russia may become the next superpower. No one could stop the Russion Oil Bourse. Anyone wanting Russian oil and gas would have to use rubles, no question asked. On the one hand, if the Russians do this, it would certainly devalue the dollar. On the other hand, if the Russians don't do this, the world would suffer from the fact there is no currency to replace a devaluing dollar. It will happen, just a question of time.

I'm going to also post this under the geopolitical threads.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'T')his is an interesting development. A Russian Oil Bourse is a lot bigger threat than an IOB, for the simple reason that Russia is a bigger economic and military threat than Iran. Russia may become the next superpower. No one could stop the Russion Oil Bourse. Anyone wanting Russian oil and gas would have to use rubles, no question asked. On the one hand, if the Russians do this, it would certainly devalue the dollar. On the other hand, if the Russians don't do this, the world would suffer from the fact there is no currency to replace a devaluing dollar. It will happen, just a question of time.

I'm going to also post this under the geopolitical threads.

[seahorse2]

How long would it take Russia to set up a bourse trading oil/gas in rubles? Petro? Mr. Bill?

Further, if the US is backed into a corner and on the verge of economic ruin, don't be surprised if it all ends militarily (Michael Klare's "Resource Wars"). The Council of Foriegn Affairs recently published an article saying or arguing that the US could win a nuclear first strike against Russia and China, so, I don't think Cheney will be blackmailed. The geopolitical risk right now with Iran, the dollar, oil/gas, Bric, SCO, is so high that my geopolitical thermometer can't measure it anymore.

Council Foriegn Relations

[DantesPeak]

Trading in rubles may come soon:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')uble becoming freely convertible deemed feasible

RBC, 10.05.2006, Moscow 18:57:06.Turning ruble into a freely convertible currency by July 1, 2006 is feasible and will not require additional legislative initiatives, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for financial institutions and markets Pavel Medvedev told journalists today. "All technical barriers have been eliminated," he said. By "technical barriers" he meant exporters' obligations of to sell part of the revenue on the domestic market and the necessity to reserve a certain volume of funds in Russia for export operations.

The constraints that cannot be removed legislatively are related to the Central Bank's requirements, which the Bank will cancel on July 1, 2006, Medvedev said. Once established, a Russian petroleum exchange will help improve the ruble's real convertibility, he added. "This doesn't imply banning Russian oil and gas manufacturers from entering international markets. "We will only establish the new trading floor where trade will be carried out in rubles," he added.

[Leanan]

And looky here:

China to buy 1,900 tonnes of gold - nine months of global mine production?

China is rumored to be trading in their dollars for gold.

[Petrodollar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he 62 year old dollar regime, that is the lynchpin of the US world economic empire, is about to end.

[Eddie_lomax]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'H')ow long would it take Russia to set up a bourse trading oil/gas in rubles? Petro? Mr. Bill?

Further, if the US is backed into a corner and on the verge of economic ruin, don't be surprised if it all ends militarily (Michael Klare's "Resource Wars"). The Council of Foriegn Affairs recently published an article saying or arguing that the US could win a nuclear first strike against Russia and China, so, I don't think Cheney will be blackmailed. The geopolitical risk right now with Iran, the dollar, oil/gas, Bric, SCO, is so high that my geopolitical thermometer can't measure it anymore.

Council Foriegn Relations

[seahorse2]

Eddie,

Your comments are well-taken. Hopefully you could put them under the Cold War Round 2 thread in the geopolitics section. I hate to take a tangent on this Russian Oil Bourse thread. But, this whole idea of a winnable first strike against China and Russia is worth discussing.

[seahorse2]

Petro,

I have found your theory fascinating. If the Russians do open a bourse trading oil/gas in rubles, it will certainly be the ultimate test of your theory that the US would take whatever action necessary, including military action, to maintain dollar hegemony. That's why I referenced the Council on Foriegn Relations article on this thread.

[Petrodollar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')his whole idea of a winnable first strike

[cube]

Considering all the delays in the opening of the IOB - Iranian oil bourse it looks like the Russians might beat them to it.

[greenworm]

Another reason to buy gold if you own dollars, GREAT! The US sure does seem in a pickle!

[jeffvail]

Will Russia see an IOB as a threat/competitor to a ROB? A partner? How will it influence Russia's use of its Security Council veto with regards to US intentions towards Iran? Several issues to consider: Possibility of Russian-Iran coordination between their bourses & currency strategy (we already know they are major materiel & technology trading partners), the potential benefits of Russia as an early Euro adopter, and what will the China-Iran currency connection be as China moves away from the dollar--will they endorse a Russian bourse (!?), the Iranian bourse (euros?), other (commodity-denominated??) ideas?

Can Chavez's "Bolivarian Oil Bourse" (BOB) be far behind? If Venezuela really is having a hard time meeting export contracts of lighter crudes (as TOD suggests), maybe they'll just offer asphalt contracts... But seriously, traditionally the breakdown of hegemony in any area leads to chaotic proliferation of replacements. At some level, it makes sense for virtually every exporter to at least have a coherent petro-currency strategy, if not to actually have their own trading floor.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrodollar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')mmm. I wonder if we will ultimately see a "basket of currencies" for global oil pricing and transactions in the: dollar, euro, yen/yuan and...ruble?